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FBI concerned about threat of terror-induced blackouts
CNN ^ | Thursday, September 4, 2003

Posted on 09/04/2003 2:07:51 PM PDT by presidio9

Edited on 04/29/2004 2:03:04 AM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]

The FBI found no evidence of any type of terrorism or criminal hacking in its investigation of the August power blackout in the Northeast, but the threat of such action remains a concern, the FBI's top counterterrorism official told a House committee Thursday.


(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: blackouts; fbi; firstenergy; psylliumhusks; targets; terrorism
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To: DoughtyOne
Last week, however, a statement purporting to be from al-Qaeda taking credit for the blackout appeared on the online newsgroup Global Islamic Media, which has been known to publish statements from the group in the past, according to reports. The statement claims that cells known as the Abu Hafs al-Misri Brigades attacked two electrical facilities in the Eastern United States under the orders of terrorist mastermind Osama bin Laden. While the statement refused to provide details as to how the attacks were conducted, citing a need for secrecy in the event that similar attacks were to be conducted in the future, it did say that the entire operation cost $7,000.

41 posted on 09/04/2003 6:54:24 PM PDT by Robert_Paulson2 (they promised us smaller government... is it smaller yet?)
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To: _Jim
could it be you made it up?


actually no... I read it here:

Last week, however, a statement purporting to be from al-Qaeda taking credit for the blackout appeared on the online newsgroup Global Islamic Media, which has been known to publish statements from the group in the past, according to reports.

The statement claims that cells known as the Abu Hafs al-Misri Brigades attacked two electrical facilities in the Eastern United States under the orders of terrorist mastermind Osama bin Laden. While the statement refused to provide details as to how the attacks were conducted, citing a need for secrecy in the event that similar attacks were to be conducted in the future, it did say that the entire operation cost $7,000.

42 posted on 09/04/2003 6:55:36 PM PDT by Robert_Paulson2 (they promised us smaller government... is it smaller yet?)
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To: Robert_Paulson2
In situations like this I have to accept that sabotage is possible. I'm not going to judge that it definately took place, but I have my misgivings. That's about as far as I can go either way. I'll never know if it was a snafu or sabotage. I just think it's avoidance to completely dismiss a sabotage possibility.
43 posted on 09/04/2003 6:59:49 PM PDT by DoughtyOne
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To: Robert_Paulson2
but a lot of folks were in denial before 9/11

believe what you want... THAT'S FINE for you folks who light torches, carry pitchforks and recite chants to 'ward' off evil or 'fix' machinery ... those of us in the OBJECTIVE WORLD base our OBSERVATIONS on factual inputs and leave 'beliefs' to those lacking the training or the faculties to comprehend such matters ...

44 posted on 09/04/2003 7:03:15 PM PDT by _Jim (Resources for Understanding the Blackout of 2003 - www.pserc.wisc.edu/Resources.htm)
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To: Robert_Paulson2
The statement claims that ...

Yeah yeah yeah ... AFTER THE FACT doesn't cut it in a situation like this.

Light another torch ...

45 posted on 09/04/2003 7:04:44 PM PDT by _Jim (Resources for Understanding the Blackout of 2003 - www.pserc.wisc.edu/Resources.htm)
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To: DoughtyOne
In situations like this I have to accept that sabotage is possible.

Relate ONE objective item that 'links' this to terrorism.

There isn't one shred of any kind of evidence that's out there ... pointing to a *****broad***** event like a 'generator outage' or 'computer problems' in the control room is insufficient; those things points to *no* particular cause in and by themselves ...

46 posted on 09/04/2003 7:08:57 PM PDT by _Jim (Resources for Understanding the Blackout of 2003 - www.pserc.wisc.edu/Resources.htm)
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To: Flipyaforreal
Swissair flight 111

Egypt Air flight 990

TWA flight 800

all flights out of JFK, all crashed into the Atlantic.

47 posted on 09/04/2003 7:10:19 PM PDT by MatthewViti
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To: DoughtyOne
What's your take on that article linked in post 24?

The chance that it was a virus are really, really, REALLY low, because, to quote DiNicola:

The possibility that an Internet "worm" infected FirstEnergy's transmission control-center computers is remote, said DiNicola, because the computers in the control centers are not based on Microsoft operating systems, which are most commonly the targets of such computer attacks.

"Obviously, we are going to look at all issues involving the system in the control center," he said. "But most of the virus and worms under discussion are based on Windows [manufactured by Microsoft]."


48 posted on 09/04/2003 7:14:47 PM PDT by _Jim (Resources for Understanding the Blackout of 2003 - www.pserc.wisc.edu/Resources.htm)
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To: MatthewViti
All flights out of JFK, all crashed into the Atlantic.

I think I have your common thread, your common denominator - sea water ... I hear it's a real big threat if you head east and experience catastrophic airframe failure, poor pilotage or 'nose her down' with ill intent in mind ...

49 posted on 09/04/2003 7:17:36 PM PDT by _Jim (Resources for Understanding the Blackout of 2003 - www.pserc.wisc.edu/Resources.htm)
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To: 300winmag
Iodine tablets or resublimated iodine crystals are very effective at rendering suspect water supplies potable. An easier and more practical method would be water filters, and water purifiers. Katadyn make the cadillac of portable filters, using ceramic, down to 0.2 microns.

50 posted on 09/04/2003 7:22:23 PM PDT by Freedom4US
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To: _Jim
Thanks for your comments Jim. In the end, you may be right. I'm certainly not going to run around saying sabotage was definately involved, but I'm going to keep an open mind.

It seems to me I recall another incident a few years back where our national security agencies said they never thought something like that could happen. If I could just remember what it was.
51 posted on 09/04/2003 7:25:45 PM PDT by DoughtyOne
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To: DoughtyOne
If the public only knew who much of a 'balancing act' power generation involving multiple 'sources' was ...

Anybody with a little lab equipment -

o A couple of regulated DC power supplies equipped with Current and Voltage meters

o A DMM

o A resistive load that will give a current load of an ampere or two at 12 volts

- can perform a little 'lab' experiment to experience what the 'power system operators' experience ... connect all devices (2 power supplies and the one load) together using any suitable set of test leads or wire ... switch on the power supplies and adjust the first one for twelve volts as seen at the 'load' (the big resistor) ... this first supply will be carrying 'all the load' presented by the resistive load.

Now bring up the second power supply slowly ... attempt to achieve 'load balance' now with *each* supply carrying half the full-load current ... your success in LARGE PART will be dependent on *how fine* an adjustment you can make with the voltage adjust poteniometer ...

52 posted on 09/04/2003 7:37:16 PM PDT by _Jim (Resources for Understanding the Blackout of 2003 - www.pserc.wisc.edu/Resources.htm)
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To: _Jim
only knew who much = > only knew how much
53 posted on 09/04/2003 7:38:11 PM PDT by _Jim (Resources for Understanding the Blackout of 2003 - www.pserc.wisc.edu/Resources.htm)
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"We have no idea what happened," Snickey said. "We have no clue. Our computer is giving us fits too. We don't even know the status of some of the stuff (power fluctuations) around us."

Why all they had to do was pick up the phone and call _jim

54 posted on 09/04/2003 7:39:49 PM PDT by takenoprisoner (stand for freedom or get the helloutta the way)
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To: _Jim; DoughtyOne
The Clouds of Digital War Will the Next Terrorist Attack Be Delivered Via Cyberspace?

By Paul Eng ABCNEWS.com

July 8 — Many security experts fear that the next big terrorist strike against the United States might be on — and through — the Internet and other vital interconnected computer networks.

And the suspected attacks won't just deny Net surfers access to their favorite Web site or increase the risk of damaging computer viruses through e-mail. Rather, experts say the next cyber attack could actually lead to physical damage to real-world targets.

For example, terrorists might decide to take out the nation's telecommunication networks by modifying the software of computers that control the switching network. Or, they might work their way into the digital software systems that help air traffic controllers guide the thousands of planes that fly over U.S. cities.

"It was unthinkable almost a year ago in the general public mind that a common airplane would be used in attacks against buildings," says Simon Perry, vice president of security for Computer Associates in Islandia, N.Y. "It's the same here. IT [information technology] will be used to attack the physical world."

Evidence of Possible Training

Sound farfetched? Perhaps. But evidence is mounting that such cyber warfare may be on the minds of al Qaeda terrorists.

As first reported in The Washington Post and confirmed by ABCNEWS, U.S. investigators have discovered there have been numerous anonymous probes over the Internet for information regarding the nation's emergency phone system, water-distribution networks, and power grid — all critical parts of the U.S. infrastructure. Perhaps more disturbingly, officials also confirmed to ABCNEWS that some of these "probes" were focused on "digital switches" — devices designed to allow authorized personnel to monitor and control various aspects of a complex network of machines.

Vulnerable Switches?

Perry says these control systems used to be "esoteric systems" — ones that used proprietary interfaces and computer languages — and were accessible only to those who were trained in their specific designs.

But many such control systems are now based on the same UNIX software and communication protocols used by computers that are widely connected to the Internet. And while most control systems aren't connected directly to the Internet or accessible through a simple Web page, they are connected to other computer systems that typically are available online.

And there have been cases where others — typically disgruntled former employees or other malicious insiders — have used such hidden, but still-vulnerable systems for their own exploits.

Peggy Weigle, chief executive officer of software security firm Sanctum in Santa Clara, Calif., notes that just such an incident occurred a few years ago in Australia.

In that case, a former employee of a water-treatment plant had managed to gain control of the digital switches and secretly reversed the flow of fresh and sewer water. (The employee had hoped that the company would hire him back in order to solve the problem.)

While such incidents have been few and isolated, some security experts worry that it won't remain so for long.

A Mix of Old and Digital

"We've been talking about this kind of [threats] for months," says Weigle. "Just by looking at the organizations we've been involved with — financial institutions, water-treatment plants, power plants — they are all vulnerable to attack."

And Weigle believes that the power of such terrorist attacks could be devastating — especially when coupled with an attack using conventional means.

"Let's say they launch an attack on a power station," says Weigle. "Someone's going to call into the 911 emergency system. A lot of these [phone] systems are based [on computer protocols]. Can they be hacked? I think so. How long would it take people to figure out the right information on what was going on and what was wrong?"

But some say that such wide-ranging network attacks — while possible — are extremely difficult to pull off.

"It would still be fairly difficult [to] break in and jump through different switches," says William Tang, chief executive officer of Digital Security Consulting, an Arcadia, Calif., company that advises the electric power-generation industry. "There are some process controls, if you decide to throw all 500 switches that control the power in Southern California, it could alert a human before it does that."

Other experts note that companies and public institutions aren't exactly unaware or insensitive to the threats of Internet security.

George Hellyer, a director at security consulting firm JANUS Associates in Stamford, Conn., says that the years of attacks by hackers with viruses — and the recent unconventional attacks by terrorists — have stirred some movement by the public and private sectors.

When it comes to addressing network security issues, "we've seen changes over the last several years," says Hellyer. "They're thinking outside of the box and addressing what we thought was unthinkable is now possible."

Keys to Survival

However, Hellyer and others note that awareness is just the beginning and that both the government and the corporate world still have a lot of work to do when it comes to preparing for and preventing a cyber attack using the nation's information and support infrastructure.

For one, many believe that while corporations are paying attention to the threats against their networks, they aren't spending nearly the amount they should be on security solutions.

"When you work out the percentage of corporate budgets spent on IT security, it's less than 1 percent," says Computer Associates' Perry. "Most organizations spend more on coffee that IT security." By Perry's estimation, companies should be spending at least 100 times more on security measures.

And the money that companies do spend on network security shouldn't go to just technology solutions such as firewalls or network intruder detection systems, but toward hiring smarter, security-savvy people who will actually manage the various networks.

Over the last two years, the number of computers added to the Internet has more than doubled from 71 million to more than 146 million, says Alan Paller, director of research at the SANS Institute, a network security information clearinghouse in Bethseda, Md.

"Yet, there has only been about 25,000 people who can even spell 'security' that have been added in those two years," says Paller. "We need to up the security skills of these [network engineers]. And that's not going to happen overnight."

RELATED STORIES


55 posted on 09/04/2003 7:43:06 PM PDT by Robert_Paulson2 (they promised us smaller government... is it smaller yet?)
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To: _Jim
Thanks for the comments Jim. I do understand the concept of the balancing act, but it would be hard for a layman such as myself to understand the full scope of it. Later.
56 posted on 09/04/2003 7:43:26 PM PDT by DoughtyOne
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To: Robert_Paulson2
US electrical grid 'vulnerable to terrorism'

WASHINGTON - A growing number of security experts in and out of the US government are worried that potentially hostile states and even a rebuilt Al-Qaeda could wreak havoc through simultaneous and coordinated assaults on sensitive points on the electrical grid.

In an extraordinary manuscript translated by the CIA, two young colonels in China's People's Liberation Army wrote in 1999 that the United States had become so powerful militarily that waging conventional war against the superpower would be suicidal.
Prime target -- EPA

Instead, they argued in their book, Unrestricted Warfare, that in the event of war, China should take the battle to the US home front and assault its critical infrastructure and economy.

'If you're charged with imagining that you are in the crosshairs of the United States and your job is to prepare some war plan, the logic these guys came up with is pretty compelling,' said Mr Steven Flynn, a senior fellow on the Council on Foreign Relations who directed its independent task force on homeland security.

'They say, categorically, no way can we marshal resources or technology to conduct conventional warfare. We have to adapt, take it to the enemy, target their critical infrastructure.'

The Pentagon has conducted secret simulations which concluded that foreign powers or technologically sophisticated terrorist organisations could, with a few keystrokes on a computer, shut down the entire electrical grid.

Industry officials said that during the second half of last year, 60 per cent of the country's power and energy companies experienced hacking attacks. None was successful.

The Sept 11, 2001 attacks have also driven the industry to beef up conventional security by hiring more guards, building better fences and installing more sensors.

And during the past several years, cyber security has improved significantly. Passwords at power plants are changed routinely, anti-virus software is often upgraded and firewalls are getting better.

Counter-terrorism experts said the dissipated Al-Qaeda and associated terrorist organisations are unlikely to marshal the time and resources to launch a sophisticated attack on America's infrastructure.

But if allowed to reconstitute, these groups could be a threat, said Mr Flynn and others.

The authorities discovered an Al-Qaeda safe house in Pakistan last year that was devoted to training terrorists for computer hacking and cyber warfare.

The former director of the CIA's counter-terrorism centre, Mr Vincent Cannistraro, said on Saturday that a number of Al-Qaeda terrorists captured in the past two years were 'very advanced...computer specialists'.

The grid has many other vulnerabilities, Mr Flynn said.

If the electrical transformer for the Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach in California were blown up, for instance, it could take months, even under a crash programme, to bring electricity back to the vital port facility, which handles more than 30 per cent of the nation's imports in terms of dollar value.

There are no spare transformers, he said, and it normally takes two years from order to delivery for a new one. Most are built in South Korea.

Similarly, he said, if the turbines in the western provinces of Canada that feed gas through pipelines to numerous electric power plants in the American West were destroyed, several of the plants would shut down.

This would overload the system and result in brownouts, 'for a long, long time as you try to find replacement capacity', Mr Flynn said. -- LAT-WP
57 posted on 09/04/2003 7:49:13 PM PDT by Robert_Paulson2 (they promised us smaller government... is it smaller yet?)
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To: Robert_Paulson2
Evidence of Possible Training

Blah blah blah.

Vaporware ...

MOTHER NATURE is a much bigger threat on a daily basis - ever read the details behind the 1977 NYC Blackout or the 1996 California Blackouts?

All these guys write reports as a means of job justification ... there is a MUCH bigger bogy men out there than 'terrorists' in the form of nature and human error.

58 posted on 09/04/2003 7:59:53 PM PDT by _Jim (Resources for Understanding the Blackout of 2003 - www.pserc.wisc.edu/Resources.htm)
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To: Robert_Paulson2
This paper is probably over your head, but, I'll post it anyway.

The grid, it's reliablity, why they 'go down'

To the un-initiated, Electrical System design (power grid/generation design) with an eye towards 'reliability' falls in the category of 'moving target'; correct one aspect of 'system failure' and, given time, another un-addressed facet will rear it's ugly head ...

Why is this so the layman asks?

We continue to build larger systems and more interconnected systems as well as experience different circumstances thrown at us from mother nature's direction, both in terms of events (like ice storms, electrical storms, ion storms) but also from the unpredictability of how materials/equipment react sometimes in adverse and severe environment as when stressed during unforseen circumstances

From: http://eetd.lbl.gov/certs/pdf/Dobson_4.pdf

Blackout Mitigation Assessment in Power Transmission Systems Electric power transmission systems are a key infra- structure and blackouts of these systems have major direct and indirect consequences on the economy and national security.

Analysis of North American Electrical Reliability Council blackout data suggests the existence of blackout size distributions [are proportional or related with] with power tails [system size or complexity]. This is an indication that blackout dynamics behave as a complex dynamical system. Here, we investigate how these complex system dynamics impact the assessment and mitigation of blackout risk.

The mitigation of failures in complex systems needs to be approached with care. The mitigation efforts can move the system to a new dynamic equilibrium while remaining near criticality and preserving the power tails.

Thus, while the absolute frequency of disruptions of all sizes may be reduced, the underlying forces can still cause the relative frequency of large disruptions to small disruptions to remain the same.

Moreover, in some cases, efforts to mitigate small disruptions can even increase the frequency of large disruptions. This occurs because the large and small disruptions are not independent but are strongly coupled by the dynamics.

...

In this paper, we focus on the intrinsic dynamics of blackouts and how complex system dynamics affect both blackout risk assessment and the impact of mitigation techniques on blackout risk. It is found, perhaps counterintuitively, that apparently sensible attempts to mitigate failures in complex systems can have adverse effects and therefore must be approached with care.


59 posted on 09/04/2003 8:01:50 PM PDT by _Jim (Resources for Understanding the Blackout of 2003 - www.pserc.wisc.edu/Resources.htm)
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To: takenoprisoner
Why all they had to do was pick up the phone and call _jim

YOU don't know how close to the TRUTH you are on this ...

60 posted on 09/04/2003 8:03:02 PM PDT by _Jim (Resources for Understanding the Blackout of 2003 - www.pserc.wisc.edu/Resources.htm)
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