Its Time to Cast a Worried Eye Toward Yellowstone

Yesterday afternoon, a 4.4 magnitude earthquake occurred just 9 miles southeast of the south entrance to Yellowstone National Park. According to the USGS, “It is unlikely that there is a connection or triggering mechanism of the earthquake with the increased hydrothermal activity at Norris Geyser Basin, which is about 35 miles from the epicenter or with hydrothermal features in Yellowstone Lake that have received recent publicity.” However, given the shallow depth of this quake, the volcanism model developed by Larry Park has suddenly lurched us a huge step towards a worst-case eruption event.

Simply put, anyone living within 600 miles of Yellowstone could be sitting in a modern day Pompeii. In addition, for those living outside this area and West of the Mississippi river, there could be grievous consequences as well because systemic processes are now building beneath Yellowstone, that paint a very clear picture of a major eruption event in its early stages

In this article, Larry Park will present the science behind his warning. However, as the publisher of YOWUSA.COM, I wish to put some context to all this in layman’s terms as now as I personally feel the time has come for everyone living west of the Mississippi to become aware and to begin making a calm and deliberate assessment of the facts. This especially applies to those presently living within 600 miles of Yellowstone. However, what does the USGS say?

You have it precisely backwards.

Only those of us who believe that knowledge is real and valuable continue learning. Those who think that knowledge is meaningless trash have no reason to.

Obviously the state of our understanding is to various degrees imperfect. But that isn't what you said; you said we "don't know squat." But we do. Unbelievable amounts of useful knowledge is available to anyone who care enough to do some research.

And it *is* important to care about being right. This has been referred to in another context as the 'spirit of truth.'

There is a whole world of knowledge you have apparently not stumbled upon yet. What you will learn, if you do, is that everything you know is wrong.

A remarkably arrogant statement. And coming from someone who dismisses the pursuit of knowledge as useless, rather a pathetic one as well...

Sorry, I stand by my earlier statements. The gravitational effect of Mars on the Earth is too trival to cause volcanic eruptions, and the difference between a close approach and a slightly closer approach is even more insignificant. The timing of the last 'really close approach' doesn't match the last Yellowstone eruption by some ten millenia. Therefore I choose not to believe Mars has anything to do with Yellowstone eruptions.

Some call this sort of thinking patronizing. Others call it "deductive reasoning."

I have been sending clippings about Yellowstone geothermal activity to a friend for several years. I just restored an archive of outgoing email messages. Here is one I found from 2000:

USGS Nov. 30, 2000

Harmonic tremors have begun to rock the Yellowstone Caldera. Unlike earthquakes, characterized by an abrupt release of energy, harmonic tremors are marked by a nearly continuous stream of energy, caused in most cases by large scale movements of magma beneath the earth. Beginning the morning of November 29th, this pattern has been observed in the Yellowstone basin. Harmonic tremors have been known to precede the most violent of earthquakes; in other cases no significant activity is triggered. But the magnitude and scale of these tremors has the experts worried.

Was this a valid early warning? My friend's father is a retired Yellowstone park ranger. He says that increased geothermal activity on its own is not particularly unusual, but the bulge and displaced water in Yellowstone Lake certainly is.

I just picked up the following from Yowusa. The site will require a subscription on 10/5, and I can't afford to subscribe to all those intereting sites so I guess this will be my last post from Yowusa.

Yellowstone Journal: Can the YVO Quell Public Concerns? YOWUSA.COM, 26-September-2003 Dave Wright

Faced with mounting public concerns and the need to balance science with the economic interests of businesses in the Yellowstone region, the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) is moving to quell these concerns. There is no question that should the YVO begin to see compelling hard data, that it will sound an alarm. In the meantime, there are many people who are satisfied to go about their business until an “official” alert is sounded. This article, which is the first of an ongoing series, will offer relevant information to those with the desire to follow the current issues of increased geothermal and seismic activity in Yellowstone National Park.

The information in this article provided was acquired from geologists, news sources near Yellowstone, the USGS and the YVO and readers are encouraged to this and subsequent articles in this ongoing series to vet this information to their own satisfaction. To those of you who live in the Yellowstone area or are privy to useful information, please E-mail that information to me at .

When discussing this series of articles with YOWUSA.COM publisher Marshall Masters, his instructions were clear. “We have no political concerns. We need to give people the facts on ongoing basis so they can verify your reports and then trust to their own sense of responsibility.” When I asked him if there would ever be a single definitive story, he replied, “There can only be one definitive story and this is the one we hope to God we’ll never publish.”

From Rense.com

Yellowstone Super Volcano Update By Dr. Bruce Cornet Geologist, Paleobotanist, and Palynologist 9-8-3 Mt. Sheriden has been rumbling (15+ micro-quakes) between 1:00 pm and now (9/7/03). There were three small earthquakes at Yellowstone lake between 10:00 am and 1:00 pm MT (9/7/03), which were felt at Norris Junction. There were some small quakes between Midnight and 6:00 am (9/7/03) at Norris Junction. There was a whole string of micro-quakes (25 or more) at Madison River between 6:00 am and now, which are continuing. There have been sporadic micro-quakes (32+) all day at Mammoth Hot Springs. Micro-quakes started around Noon and have continued to the present at Mirror Lake Plateau. All in all, activity is picking up from a lull for about two weeks, before which a series of small and large quakes (including a 4.4) occurred. That quake prompted the web report. Steam pressure is apparently building again, and hydrothermal fluids and steam are working their way up through fractures and vents. I do not expect anything unusual or extreme to happen in the immediate future, but if the trend continues, and the number of earthquakes gradually increase with time, more warnings from geologists will ensue. What you should be alert to is any report that mentions increasing geyser activity, with new fumaroles and steam vents appearing near or on top of the rising dome. The dome has risen about three feet in the past few years, and magma has risen to within 3.7 km of the surface based on quake data. Earthquake loci measured to within 0.5 km under Mt. St. Helens, and people still didn't think it would erupt. But everything has to be scaled up for Yellowstone, meaning that 3.7 km is not a safe depth. Ground temperatures in the northwestern part of the park are apparently on the rise (up to 200 dg F in some places), killing the vegetation. Large areas of the park are now closed, including areas with geysers, because their water temperature is now scalding and dangerous for visitors. If more steam vents appear, that means a continuous pathway for pressure release has been established to the magma chamber. If that happens, the pressure in the magma chamber will continue to drop until it reaches a critical stage when the superheated water within the magma explodes. When that happens the super-volcano will blow violently, blowing out a chunk of its cap-rock and sending millions of cubic feet of ash into the atmosphere in a Pompeii-like explosion, but 100,000 times worse. When you hear those reports, you will have about two days to "get out of Dodge" before the eruption. Unfortunately, as the steam venting subsides, there will be a false sense of security. People will think it was just another cyclical event, and the danger is over. But that will be the farthest from the truth. It will be the quiet before the storm. A major earthquake will suddenly rock their towns for hundreds of kilometers around Yellowstone, and soon thereafter 1,000+ degree pyroclastic flows will descend on them at hundreds of miles per hour, extending out to 600+ km. That 600 km radius around the caldera will experience total devastation. The next 600 km out may receive as much as 5-10 feet of ash, depending on wind direction. The thickness of ash will decrease away from the super-volcano, but will reach the crop belt in the Midwest (Missouri, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, etc.), destroying most of the fertile croplands of the United States. California will be hit hard by falling ash, with its central wine valley severely damaged (the French will love it). Agriculture will have to shift east of the Mississippi for years. The Garden State will once again live up to its name. In northern Idaho you will have to contend with several feet of ash and isolation. Roads will be closed. Power will be out. Phones will be out. Communication will depend on Ham radios and local stations that have generators. Rescue will take weeks or months. Some areas will never see rescue teams. The survivalists will be best prepared to make it through the difficult months following the eruption. Make new friends. Have plenty of dust masks on hand, because you cannot breath any airborne ash if you want to avoid lung disease. It's what caused mass kills of plains animals 12 million years ago, resulting in extensive bone beds beneath the ash. Drinkable water will sell at the price of gold. To recap, I don't expect anything to happen in the near future. But with such an unpredictable event, being prepared is your best ticket to survival." Dr. Bruce Cornet
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