Super Bowl 38 pick: Rams over Raiders

Yahoooooo Sporting News ^ | 08/28/03 | Dan Pompei

[bedolido]

What makes a Super Bowl winner?

The cliche answer is great defenses, and the last three Super Bowl winners -- Tampa, New England and Baltimore -- support that logic. But before the 2000 season, the argument can be made that 12 of the previous 13 Super Bowl winners (the lone exception being the 1990 Giants) were offense-dominated teams.

So great offenses also can win. In fact, it says here great offenses will win this season when the Rams beat the Raiders in the Arena, er, Super Bowl.

What wins Super Bowls are transcendent players who redefine their careers at the ultimate moments. Think John Elway helicoptering to a first down in 1998. Think Joe Montana dissecting the Bengals on the game-winning drive in 1989.

What wins Super Bowls are coaches who give transcendent players advantages by putting them in positions to succeed. Think Jon Gruden and Bill Belichick the last two seasons or, if you prefer, Joe Gibbs in 1988.

Assuming Kurt Warner and Marshall Faulk are healthy and can play as they did two seasons ago, no team has more game changers than the Rams. Some would say it is a big assumption that they will be healthy, but it may be a bigger assumption that two of the most gifted players in the game can lose their gifts so quickly.

This team also has the premier offensive mind in the game. Mike Martz is the coach whom offensive coaches at every level of football study in order to better prepare their teams.

Think Warner throwing beautiful spiral after beautiful spiral on February 1 in Houston, just as he did when he was the NFL's Most Valuable Player in 1999 and 2001. Think Faulk dancing through gaps, around linebackers and by defensive backs. Think Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt bursting out of their breaks, making effortless catches and then running away from everyone.

Think Martz making 11 offensive players look like 18, temporarily paralyzing a defense that can't possibly keep up with so many shifts, motions and personnel changes.

Think Rich Gannon throwing short, precise strikes, each one a dagger, to Jerry Rice, Jerry Porter, Tim Brown, Charlie Garner, Doug Jolley, Teyo Johnson and Tyrone Wheatley. But those short strikes don't hurt as much as Warner's long ones.

Think Rams 34, Raiders 28.

AFC picks

Division winners: Dolphins, Steelers, Titans and Raiders Wild-card teams: Colts and Bills AFC championship: Raiders over Dolphins

NFC picks

Division winners: Eagles, Packers, Bucs, Rams Wild-card teams: 49ers and Giants NFC championship: Rams over Packers

Super Bowl winner: Rams

Award picks Defensive player of the year: DE Jason Taylor, Dolphins Offensive rookie of the year: TE Dallas Clark, Colts Defensive rookie of the year: CB Terence Newman, Cowboys Comeback player of the year: QB Kurt Warner, Rams Coach of the year: Gregg Williams, Bills

Senior writer Dan Pompei covers the NFL for Sporting News. Email him at pompei@sportingnews.com.

[jaime1959]

>> In the case of Baltimore's Trent Dilfer, the guy ended up being cut by the team almost as soon as the post-game party had ended.<<

Yeah, and Billick replaced him with Elvis Grbac! LOL!

Having a great QB on your Super Bowl team is nice, but the most important factors are a good running game and a great defense. If you have that, you can get by with an average QB who doesn’t trip on his own pecker. But a great QB alone won’t win Super Bowls (See Dan Marino, Dan Fouts, and John Elway (minus Terrell Davis)). The Cowboys didn’t win because they had Aikman; they won because they had Emmett Smith and a dominating D.

[SoothingDave]

No. Stewart is a mediocre quarterback that makes bad passing decisions.

I sincerely think he simply could not read NFL defenses or have the ability to look to secondary or tertiary receivers.

SD

[discostu]

That's basically it, you could tell right after the snap who was the intended receiver because he always stares at them immediately, thanks to his inability to pre-read defenses he has no idea that he shouldn't pass to that guy at all, because he's staring right at the guy the whole time defenses are keying on him, and that stare gives him tunnel vision so he doesn't see the coverage closing in. He uses his ears well which is why he scrambles well. But his eyes just don't get the game, I think I've seen him throw to a checkdown receiver twice maybe three times. The good news for Stewart is that he switched conferences so his new opponents won't be that familiar with his weaknesses, the bad news is it takes about an hour of watching tape on his to pick him to pieces.

[Warren_Piece]

Having a great QB on your Super Bowl team is nice, but the most important factors are a good running game and a great defense.

And this is why I think my Titans will be good but will not go all the way this year.

Steve McNair is looking spectacular, the best I've ever seen him. TN is LOADED at WR (most folks just don't know it yet). McNair will be the best QB in th NFL this year, barring injury. I take that back - if he gets injured, he'll be even better.

That being said, the Titans' defense may not be as good as last year. We have no depth at corner (name one team that does), and our linebacking crew is retooled and yet to prove itself.

Finally, Eddie George really looks bad. I mean REALLY bad. They drafted Chris Brown, who is Eddie George only 10 years younger, but he's been hurt the entire preseason.

Great passing game + mediocre defense + No running Game = 2nd round playoff loss. I'm hoping Jeff Fisher can prove me wrong.

[SoCal Pubbie]

"The Bengals are the worst-run franchise in all of sports."

I guess you've never heard of the Los Angeles Clippers.

[jaime1959]

And that's why I think the Ravens could be the surprise winner of the AFC North. Jamal Lewis is a horse, and he has some decent back-ups. The defense will be one of the best in the league. How far we go depends on how well the right side of the O line plays and how many mistakes Kyle Boller makes because it sure looks like he’ll be starting.

[Mr. Mojo]

Rams vs. Raiders in the Bowl?

LOL....Either would be lucky just to make the playoffs.

[Allegra]

The Texans don't suck!

I'm biting my nails over here!

Just after 2 minute warning and we have the ball (after a BEAUTIFUL interception!) on Miami's 15...we're down by two points....

I can't stand it!! (Agonized scream...)

[Mr. Mojo]

Serious upset potential in this game. ...amazing.

[Mr. Mojo]

35 yarder.........IT'S GOOD!!!!!

[Mr. Mojo]

Bad news......Dolphins get the ball on their own 45 after the kickoff. ...not too far to go to get in field goal range.

[Mr. Mojo]

Just missed the sack. .....but only 4 sec remaining now.

Hail Mary or bust.

[Allegra]

Houston Texans -- they still suck, but then again, they're supposed to

That team that sucks just became the first team in NFL history to win its first two season openers...

WOOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!

[Allegra]

It's all OK now... :)

I don't have any fingernails left, though.

[Thinkin' Gal]

Super Bowl 38 pick: Rams over Raiders

Say, isn't the ram the prince of Persia?