Super Bowl 38 pick: Rams over Raiders

Yahoooooo Sporting News ^ | 08/28/03 | Dan Pompei

[bedolido]

What makes a Super Bowl winner?

The cliche answer is great defenses, and the last three Super Bowl winners -- Tampa, New England and Baltimore -- support that logic. But before the 2000 season, the argument can be made that 12 of the previous 13 Super Bowl winners (the lone exception being the 1990 Giants) were offense-dominated teams.

So great offenses also can win. In fact, it says here great offenses will win this season when the Rams beat the Raiders in the Arena, er, Super Bowl.

What wins Super Bowls are transcendent players who redefine their careers at the ultimate moments. Think John Elway helicoptering to a first down in 1998. Think Joe Montana dissecting the Bengals on the game-winning drive in 1989.

What wins Super Bowls are coaches who give transcendent players advantages by putting them in positions to succeed. Think Jon Gruden and Bill Belichick the last two seasons or, if you prefer, Joe Gibbs in 1988.

Assuming Kurt Warner and Marshall Faulk are healthy and can play as they did two seasons ago, no team has more game changers than the Rams. Some would say it is a big assumption that they will be healthy, but it may be a bigger assumption that two of the most gifted players in the game can lose their gifts so quickly.

This team also has the premier offensive mind in the game. Mike Martz is the coach whom offensive coaches at every level of football study in order to better prepare their teams.

Think Warner throwing beautiful spiral after beautiful spiral on February 1 in Houston, just as he did when he was the NFL's Most Valuable Player in 1999 and 2001. Think Faulk dancing through gaps, around linebackers and by defensive backs. Think Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt bursting out of their breaks, making effortless catches and then running away from everyone.

Think Martz making 11 offensive players look like 18, temporarily paralyzing a defense that can't possibly keep up with so many shifts, motions and personnel changes.

Think Rich Gannon throwing short, precise strikes, each one a dagger, to Jerry Rice, Jerry Porter, Tim Brown, Charlie Garner, Doug Jolley, Teyo Johnson and Tyrone Wheatley. But those short strikes don't hurt as much as Warner's long ones.

Think Rams 34, Raiders 28.

AFC picks

Division winners: Dolphins, Steelers, Titans and Raiders Wild-card teams: Colts and Bills AFC championship: Raiders over Dolphins

NFC picks

Division winners: Eagles, Packers, Bucs, Rams Wild-card teams: 49ers and Giants NFC championship: Rams over Packers

Super Bowl winner: Rams

Award picks Defensive player of the year: DE Jason Taylor, Dolphins Offensive rookie of the year: TE Dallas Clark, Colts Defensive rookie of the year: CB Terence Newman, Cowboys Comeback player of the year: QB Kurt Warner, Rams Coach of the year: Gregg Williams, Bills

Senior writer Dan Pompei covers the NFL for Sporting News. Email him at pompei@sportingnews.com.

[Alberta's Child]

The 1985 Bears, who had what was probably the best defensive unit in the NFL over the last 30 years, were a classic championship football team. A stifling defense that sent eight (I think) players to the Pro Bowl, along with a solid running game and an adequate short passing game. It's hard to beat a team like that.

[kevkrom]

Just remember....you can't be a winner if there aren't any losers...

Good point... instead of predicting the winners right away, let's start with the sure losers:

The hell-will-freeze-over-first crowd

• Arizona Cardinals -- less of a threat to win in the NFL than the Arizona Wildcats, the Cardinals make me long for a multi-division approach (like European soccer leagues) just so they don't take up valuable schedule space
• Carolina Panthers -- like the Cardinals out west, Carolina automatically turns their division into a three-team race before week #1
• Cincinati Bengals -- they can change coaches and players all they want, but until the front office gets serious about winning, Cincinati's only purpose for existence is to provide Jerome Bettis with at least two 100-yard rushing games a season
• Dallas Cowboys -- this year is going to make fans nostalgic for the first year in the post-Landry era... 0-16 is a distinct possiblility, if it were not for the fact that Dallas owns the Redskins, regardless of talent levels
• Detroit Lions -- I'd like to say something cruel, but I have pity for people who need psychological counselling
• Houston Texans -- they still suck, but then again, they're supposed to
• Jacksonville Jaguars -- it took them slightly longer to hit rock bottom than Carolina did after both teams bought their way to conference championship games, but they're there now
• Minnesota Vikings -- memo to Randy Moss: shut up and let Culpepper run the team... yeah, like that will happen

Cinderella Wannabes

• Atlanta Falcons -- no Vick, no pick (even with Vick, they'd be a longshot at best)
• New York Jets -- what's with keeping QB's healthy here? Testaverde is past his prime and still has a blind spot reading defenses
• Seattle Seahawks -- no playoff spot available without getting ahead of either the Rams or 49'ers
• Washington Redskins -- Snyder is the Steinbrenner of football, without the championships to go with it; "ball coach" will only keep his job by beating Dallas once

Everyone else, I think is in the hunt. I'll say the playoff teams are:

AFC: New England, Pittsburgh, Oakland, Tennessee (wild cards Miami and Indianapolis [sorry Cleveland])

NFC: Philadelphia, Green Bay, St. Louis, Tampa Bay (wild cards San Francisco and Chicago)

I'll take Pittsburgh over Philly for the Super Bowl.

[mr.pink]

Mark Haynes may well have been the most talented cornerback I've ever seen.

I agree...I was living in NY then and watching the Giants and the guy was a complete corner (perfect size, great coverage, hard hitter)....you're on the money re him being a malcontent.

Of who I've watched....Rod Woodson probably is the best overall defensive back, and one of the best football players in general, I've ever watched (but I wouldn't argue with the Lott fans). Even at his late age, the Raiders would not have been in the SB without him last year.

[mr.pink]

The 1985 Bears, who had what was probably the best defensive unit in the NFL over the last 30......

I'd put that `85 Bears squad above both the Raven and Tampa squads. But their high level of D play wasn't sustained long enough for my taste...Tampa's played better over a longer period IMO...but the Bears were just flat out sick that year.

It's hard to beat a team like that.

Either San Diego or Miami would've beaten that great Bear team 7 out of ten times IMO...both were capable of holding the Bears O to 10 points while scoring two big play TDs themselves (the rest of the game being 3 and outed).

[Alberta's Child]

Haynes was an interesting cornerback because he had great coverage skills and great hands, but hardly ever intercepted any passes. Because he was the best defensive back on the team by a wide margin, nobody ever threw to his side of the field. The first year that Perry Williams started playing right cornerback (he was a marginal cover guy but was a good hitter and was athletic enough to make up for his mediocre coverage abilities), Haynes intercepted six or seven passes and made it to the Pro Bowl.

After Haynes left, the Giants won the Super Bowl in 1986 with Elvis Patterson at left cornerback. He left a couple of years later, and was replaced by Mark Collins, who was almost identical to Haynes. He was a solid, athletic cornerback who could cut down a run to the outside as well as he could cover a wide receiver. Again, he didn't intercept many passes because teams didn't throw at him. If you look at the game-by-game stats of all the top NFC receivers in the late 1980s and early 1990s, you'll find that most of them had their worst games against the Giants. I remember a Giants-49ers game at that time in which Jerry Rice had two catches for something like 17 total yards.

Of who I've watched....Rod Woodson probably is the best overall defensive back . . .

Woodson was definitely a great one. He was a punt and kick returner for a while, too, wasn't he? My all-time favorite was Albert Lewis of the Chiefs. He was the first "big" Pro Bowl-caliber cornerback (6'2" and 210 pounds), and he quietly put together what should have been recognized as a first-ballot Hall of Fame career. He was also a phenomenal special teams player -- he blocked something like 8 or 9 punts during his career.

[Alberta's Child]

I'd put that `85 Bears squad above both the Raven and Tampa squads. But their high level of D play wasn't sustained long enough for my taste...Tampa's played better over a longer period IMO...but the Bears were just flat out sick that year.

The Bears were a strong defensive team in 1984 and 1986, too. What made the 1985 different was that their veterans played one last great season before their age started to catch up to them. They also lost Buddy Ryan as their defensive coordinator after 1986, which was why they abandoned their famed "46 Defense" in favor of a standard 4-3.

Either San Diego or Miami would've beaten that great Bear team 7 out of ten times IMO...both were capable of holding the Bears O to 10 points while scoring two big play TDs themselves.

The Dolphins actually beat the Bears in the 1985 season (it was Chicago's only loss in a 15-1 season). The final score was something like 38-35, if I remember. The Bears weren't playing for much by that point, and their pass rush was ineffective against Marino's short drop and quick release.

[mr.pink]

I remember both Williams and Collins. Collins was very excellent. The G--men were putting some serious Ds on the field during those years and their battles with the 9ers all time classics.

Woodson....He was a punt and kick returner for a while, too, wasn't he?

Sure was, he "returned" well into his ninth year or so and was fearless. He could get beat on the corner here and there, but he more than made up for it with big picks, sacks, and tough tackling. Watched him drive an O-lineman three steps backward and into a QB for a sack once.

Woodson was also an All American high hurdler at Perdue and during his rookie contract holdout went to Europe to run in track meets as a negotiating ploy. Coach Noll was aked about his absence and replied "hey, if the guy wants to run around Europe in his underwear what can I do about it". ;o)

Hey, speaking of DBs...remember Ken Easley?... too bad his career was injury shortened...I loved watching that guy.

[Alberta's Child]

Ken Easley was another great one. A hard-hitting strong safety for the Seahawks -- a perennial All-Pro.

The G--men were putting some serious Ds on the field during those years and their battles with the 9ers all time classics.

Ironically, back in the 80s the Giants' secondary was always their weakest area -- typically, they would have one Pro Bowl level player (Haynes, then Collins) and one other solid player (Terry Kinard, for example) at the same time. The other two (Perry Williams and Kenny Hill, for the most part) were solid tacklers who fit into their system well, but were marginal by themselves.

For a solid defensive backfield from that era, look no further than the Kansas City Chiefs. The late-80s backfield of cornerbacks Albert Lewis and Kevin Ross, strong safety Lloyd Burruss, and free safety Deron Cherry, was undoubtedly one of the best of all time. The Cleveland Browns of that era also had a great backfield -- Hanford Dixon and Frank Minnifield at the corners, and Felix Wright and Al Gross at safety.

[mr.pink]

Oh yeah...I remember those Chief and Browns D backfields and they were both tremendous. There are a some excellent units in the game right now IMO, Philly, NE, Miami, Tampa, and Oakland when C Woodson is healthy.

I enjoy watching great DBs and great DB units play the game. I wish the league would ease up on those guys and let `em play a bit more (has a rule change ever gone their way?)...but the league seems to be in love with the glitzy aerial exhibitions as it sells to the casual fan..

Gotta' run...Thanks for helping me get my FR football fix...can't wait for the season to start.

[Mr. Mojo]

What's going to happen with Romo?

Beats me. ...But the guy sure is a nut, ain't he? His actions, as usual, were way over the line.

[Vigilantcitizen]

AFC

East-

Miami with the Pats and Bills battling for second.

North-

Pittsburgh with the Browns a close second.

South-

Titans with the Colts in Second.

West-

Chiefs with Oakland and the Chargers battling for second. I know I'll hear it for this pick, but this is Vermiels third year there, and they improved their defense to go along with a very potent offense.

NFC East-

I think the Giants will edge the Eagles for the division this year. The Giants improved on defense while the Eagles lost Hugh Douglas. It will be close either way

North-

The Vikings are going to give the Packers all they can handle, but I still think the Packers win the division.

South-

The Bucs with the Falcons and Saints having another close battle for second.

West-

Seattle, which is good on both sides of the ball, will take the division over the Niners and Rams. The Niners are going through a coaching change, and the Rams defense isn't the best.

Playoffs.

AFC- Miami,Steelers, Titans, Chiefs with the Chargers and Pats in the two wild card slots.

The Steelers travel to Miami for the title game, with Miami winning. Disclaimer: I normally don't pick the usually late season fading Dolphins, but adding Junior Seau to an already good defensive unit that has been playing together for a while(ala Tampa Bay)puts them over the top IMO.

NFC- Giants, Packers, Bucs, Seahawks with the Falcons and Eagles as the two wild cards.

The Giants travel to Tampa for the title game, with Tampa winning.

Superbowl- Tampa beats Miami for back to back bowl wins.

And for all those who believe that my team, the Falcons, are doomed due to Vicks injury, think again.

First, the back up, Doug Johnson, who has been with the team 4 years and beat the Giants in the Meadowlands last year when Vick was hurt, is IMHO a better passing quaterback than Vick. He played college ball at Florida under Spurrier.

Second, other than the front lines on both sides of the ball, we're pretty stacked. On offense, we have a good running game with Dunn and 248 pound TJ Duckett. We added Peerless Price to go along with 6'7" Brian Finneran and speedster Martay Jenkins at receiver, along with rookies Terrance Edwards and Latarence Dunbar . Alge Crumpler and Brian Kowslowski are both good tight ends.

On defense, we added Corey Hall and Tyrone Williams to an already good secondary. Our linebacker core is solid with Keith Brooking at the top. Our only weakness is depth along the front line, which isn't as much a concern running the 3-4 and having a lot of depth at linebacker.

[CounterCounterCulture]

[Thane_Banquo]

The Bears took Kordell Stewart

Stewart was a victim of terrible play-calling in Pittsburgh. See http://www.post-gazette.com/steelers/20030806snoter0806p7.asp for an example.

At the beginning of the season, Mularkey was more interested in "spreading the ball around" than he was in trying to win. Than, Kordell went out and Maddox went in. At the same time, Mularkey opened-up his play-calling and forget about that spreading-the-ball-around nonsense.

Besides, Stewart is a huge improvement over Miller, who not only couldn't scramble, but got injured every other play and rarely threw the ball further than 4 yards.

[Thane_Banquo]

The Vikes impressed me with the way they finished last year

That was last year. They will go no where as long as Moss is on their team. He doesn't care about winning, as referenced by his comment about playing when he wants to. Moreover, he is an ego-maniac to whom the word teamwork has no meaning.

[Pharmboy]

I see, sir, that you not only know baseball but football as well.

If the defense clicks by the end of October, the Giants will roll in mid-January.

[HenryLeeII]

I saw Marcus Williams' agent on ESPN two nights ago, and he said the WR is having double vision and headaches, so I looks like this isn't just a "normal" bone fracture that's going to heal and go away - this poor guy could have real and lasting problems away from the field. A similar thing happened with the Redskins a few years ago when Michael Westbrook attacked Stephen Davis from behind and beat him pretty bad. He was fined and suspended by the team, then when he came back he was never really accepted by his teammates and it was just a matter of time before he was sent packing. Of course Romo is more valuabe than Westbrook, and with the win-at-all-costs mentality of the league, the Raiders will probably do all they can to keep him around, but its how his teammates will deal with him that will be the real issue.

[Alberta's Child]

I saw Marcus Williams' agent on ESPN two nights ago, and he said the WR is having double vision and headaches, so I looks like this isn't just a "normal" bone fracture that's going to heal and go away - this poor guy could have real and lasting problems away from the field.

I'm happy to see his agent making such statements even if it turns out that they are not true. When all the civil suits are settled against the team and Romanowski, Williams will probably end up getting paid more for this than he ever would have earned as an NFL player.

[Alberta's Child]

I see, sir, that you not only know baseball but football as well.

Oh, and you haven't even seen me on a hockey thread, either. LOL.

If the defense clicks by the end of October, the Giants will roll in mid-January.

I agree, to a certain extent. The real concern with this team on defense is age and lack of depth at some positions. As long as they stay healthy, they should be OK. Their linebackers concern me, though. It's not that they are mediocre players, but since Jesse Armstead left, this team hasn't really had a dominant game-breaker at the linebacker position. All those years of L.T. and Armstead really spoiled Giants fans, I guess!

[mr.pink]

...but adding Junior Seau to an already good defensive unit that has been playing together for a while(ala Tampa Bay)puts them over the top IMO.

I think adding Seau was a mistake, but that'll play out over the season.

Otherwise I think you've done an excellent analysis....and nothing the Chiefs do will surprise me, even making the SB by winning 42-38 shootouts. I really gotta' hand it to Vermiel, if he wants to put on the "genius" cap I won't complain.

I also agree with your take on your Falcons. There's a lot more there than just Vick....really nice LBs for one.

One matchup I'm going to pay attention to this season is Indy-Tenn as once Indy shows it can stand up to the physical Titan team, then I'll be convinced they can make some serious playoff noise.

[discostu]

No. Stewart is a mediocre quarterback that makes bad passing decisions. During his long "interceptionless" streak in one game he managed to hit opposing player in the hands before it got to his guys FIVE times. Which isn't to say there wasn't some bad play calling too, but that's not the source of Stewart's problems. Remember Mularkey was one of 4 or 5 offensive coordinators Stewart worked with and his results were pretty consistent: lots of interceptions, lots of near interceptions, no ability to throw the deepball with accuracy (he can huck it out there, but God only knows where the ball is going), no ability to sustain an offensive drive and positive momentum. He doesn't have the eye or the head for quarterbacking, he was a downgrade from Miller, watch and learn.