Super Bowl 38 pick: Rams over Raiders

Yahoooooo Sporting News ^ | 08/28/03 | Dan Pompei

[bedolido]

What makes a Super Bowl winner?

The cliche answer is great defenses, and the last three Super Bowl winners -- Tampa, New England and Baltimore -- support that logic. But before the 2000 season, the argument can be made that 12 of the previous 13 Super Bowl winners (the lone exception being the 1990 Giants) were offense-dominated teams.

So great offenses also can win. In fact, it says here great offenses will win this season when the Rams beat the Raiders in the Arena, er, Super Bowl.

What wins Super Bowls are transcendent players who redefine their careers at the ultimate moments. Think John Elway helicoptering to a first down in 1998. Think Joe Montana dissecting the Bengals on the game-winning drive in 1989.

What wins Super Bowls are coaches who give transcendent players advantages by putting them in positions to succeed. Think Jon Gruden and Bill Belichick the last two seasons or, if you prefer, Joe Gibbs in 1988.

Assuming Kurt Warner and Marshall Faulk are healthy and can play as they did two seasons ago, no team has more game changers than the Rams. Some would say it is a big assumption that they will be healthy, but it may be a bigger assumption that two of the most gifted players in the game can lose their gifts so quickly.

This team also has the premier offensive mind in the game. Mike Martz is the coach whom offensive coaches at every level of football study in order to better prepare their teams.

Think Warner throwing beautiful spiral after beautiful spiral on February 1 in Houston, just as he did when he was the NFL's Most Valuable Player in 1999 and 2001. Think Faulk dancing through gaps, around linebackers and by defensive backs. Think Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt bursting out of their breaks, making effortless catches and then running away from everyone.

Think Martz making 11 offensive players look like 18, temporarily paralyzing a defense that can't possibly keep up with so many shifts, motions and personnel changes.

Think Rich Gannon throwing short, precise strikes, each one a dagger, to Jerry Rice, Jerry Porter, Tim Brown, Charlie Garner, Doug Jolley, Teyo Johnson and Tyrone Wheatley. But those short strikes don't hurt as much as Warner's long ones.

Think Rams 34, Raiders 28.

AFC picks

Division winners: Dolphins, Steelers, Titans and Raiders Wild-card teams: Colts and Bills AFC championship: Raiders over Dolphins

NFC picks

Division winners: Eagles, Packers, Bucs, Rams Wild-card teams: 49ers and Giants NFC championship: Rams over Packers

Super Bowl winner: Rams

Award picks Defensive player of the year: DE Jason Taylor, Dolphins Offensive rookie of the year: TE Dallas Clark, Colts Defensive rookie of the year: CB Terence Newman, Cowboys Comeback player of the year: QB Kurt Warner, Rams Coach of the year: Gregg Williams, Bills

Senior writer Dan Pompei covers the NFL for Sporting News. Email him at pompei@sportingnews.com.

[kevkrom]

I know this is going to sound silly, but I don't really think the Lions are that bad. They have some decent talent there but they just seem to have a franchise-level mental block against actually winning the games they have a shot at. I think Carolina sucks far worse than Detroit...

[Teacher317]

You beat me to it. PHI vs TEN

[Alberta's Child]

My rule of thumb for measuring a teams dangerousness is when both units rate 6 or better.

I would agree with that, except that the method for ranking them has to be an accurate one. Rating a team's offense or defense based simply on the total yardage they generate and give up is ludicrous. Under this method of ranking, a strong defensive unit will often be penalized if the team also has a strong offensive unit -- teams playing with a big lead will usually play a softer defensive game, giving up lots of meaningless yardage (especially through the air) late in the game. Also, a strong offensive unit will often be penalized if the team has a big-play defense that generates a lot of turnovers -- scoring drives will generally be shorter for these teams.

For a few years the 9ers had maybe the best, or at least one of the best, secondaries I ever saw...I think they sent the whole group (Lott, Wright, Hicks, and Williamson) to the pro bowl, and I think they were youngsters!

That was 1984, I think. There was a caveat to that Pro Bowl secondary, though -- Mark Haynes of the Giants was supposed to go to the Pro Bowl that year, but he had to be replaced because of an injury late in the season. Interestingly, that was also before Ronnie Lott made the switch from cornerback to safety.

[Hotdog]

Just remember....you can't be a winner if there aren't any losers...Bengals have been losing for a while... now it's someone elses turn....(am I setting myself up for thing here?)

[discostu]

Loyalty is a good thing, but that doesn't change the fact that the Bengals have lost more games in the last 10 years than any other team in any other 10 year stretch in history (and this is like the 3rd year we've been able to say that about them).

A couple years ago I read a great column talking about how bad the Bengals were, he told the story of leaving two tickets on his dashboard with his window open when he went to the mall... and coming back to his car to find four tickets.

Did they get new towels this year? I remember that's one of the many cost saving measures used by that franchise.

[Alberta's Child]

Sort of like the NHLs New Jersey Devils of the 1990s, who have quietly become what is arguably the most successful team in all of professional sports over the last ten years.

[Hotdog]

Run Bengals RUN...no..No...NO...the other way!

[Hotdog]

Thanks...your such a good person...by the way...do you need any Bengals tickets?

[Alberta's Child]

The Bengals are the worst-run franchise in all of sports. Which is a shame because they now play in a real top-rate stadium. I got to see them once in Paul Brown Stadium last year, and I was very impressed with that venue.

[discostu]

Certainly when you look at the talent in their lockerroom there's no good reason for their recent record. Though really you can say the same thing about the Bengals. In raw talent you're right Carolina is the worst team in the league, and the fact they actually still manage to put on a show and even played well down the stretch last year with no hope of a playoff birth shows the difference between a franchise that wants to win and one that's not really committed to the idea.

[prarie earth]

I could see the Chefs getting to the League title game with an improved defense.

[HenryLeeII]

What's going to happen with Romo? Criminal trial, ostracism by his teammates, nothing?

[jaime1959]

That's one way of looking at it. The other is that great defenses win Super Bowls.

[discostu]

Just to show I'm not an entirely mean person I will admit that as a Steelers fan I fear the Bengals every year. They seem to have a long tradition of having Pittsburgh's number, I remember a few years ago the Bengals went 3-13 and beat my Steelers TWICE, they got two of their three wins for the whole freaking season against us. I haven't run the numbers but I wouldn't be suprised to find out we're the only team in the league under 500 against the Bengals in recent years.

[SoothingDave]

A couple years ago I read a great column talking about how bad the Bengals were, he told the story of leaving two tickets on his dashboard with his window open when he went to the mall... and coming back to his car to find four tickets.

LOL. At least they've added a casino in the area so Steeler fans can leave some more money on their annual bus trips to occupy the stadium.

SD

[mr.pink]

Mark Haynes of the Giants was supposed to go.....Interestingly, that was also before Ronnie Lott made the switch from cornerback to safety.

Mark Haynes was damn good player. Quick question, how many years did Lott play at corner before making the switch?...I'm thinking 5 but am not sure.

I also agree with your points about unit ratings. I made a point to a friend just the other day that both last years Tampa squad, and the Ravens SB squad would not have put up those kind of D stats if their O's were consistently putting up 30 a game. Using that dynamic, a D elevating itself to greatness as a function of Offensive ineptness, I'll be keeping my eye on that Carolina D unit this year.

I know my recent Steeler Ds have been at their best and toughest when the Offense is low scoring...Tenn's was too during their SB run, winning 13-10, 10-7 type games.

Myself, I'll take a 14-10 game with great hard hitting D play over a 38-35 tennis match masquerading as a football game anyday of the week.

[Alberta's Child]

But great defenses have always won Super Bowls, not just recent ones.

It wasn't until the last decade or so that you started seeing third-rate quarterbacks in the Super Bowl, even on "great" teams.

In the case of Baltimore's Trent Dilfer, the guy ended up being cut by the team almost as soon as the post-game party had ended.

[SoothingDave]

Just to show I'm not an entirely mean person I will admit that as a Steelers fan I fear the Bengals every year.

Yep. If the Bengals beat Pittsburgh it's like winning the Super Bowl to them. They always give us a game.

SD

[Alberta's Child]

Mark Haynes may well have been the most talented cornerback I've ever seen. His problem was that he was a malcontent -- his attitude got him shuffled off the Giants not long after that Pro Bowl season.

[mr.pink]

You beat me to it. PHI vs TEN

We'll see...I think it would be a good matchup/game..

My dream Superbowl is the League's nightmare....Tenn vs. Tampa in a downpour on a muddy field with an 11-4 overtime final.

Please football gods, grant this true lowbrow just one!