McClintock optimistic despite polls

San Francisco Chronicle ^ | 8/28/2003 | John Wildermuth

[ex-Texan]

Sacramento -- Tom McClintock is in remarkable good humor. New polls have the Republican state senator running a distant third in his bid to replace Gov. Gray Davis in the Oct. 7 recall election, but politically, that's a glass that's half full, not half empty.

[Reaganwuzthebest]

Reagan wasn't perfect, but he was still the best, and I think that means we need to cut other Republicans some slack if they are not 100% pure.

It's not about being pure, candidates make their stances known, and voters make up their minds who best represents their views overall. On that you and I agree.

The 1986 amnesty was a disaster, a mistake of which Reagan could not have anticipated the consequences. Politicians of today, knowing the results should not be calling for another one. It would be devastating to the country and the GOP. Yet many of them, including in the Republican party are doing just that. Why should principled conservatives support someone taking that position when they have a choice? We don't need to commit suicide, everyone in the Republican party should tell Arnold to take a hike and support an election between McClintock and Bustamante. It's a good bet who'll win.

[LisaAnne]

I'm glad you don't have a vote in the CA election.

[Princeliberty]

Arnold if elected would continue the same policies
that are bringing the state down.

McClintock is the one fighting for what is
right and for what can turn the state around.

Just a (R) will not help the state at all.

[section9]

Tick, tock, tick, tock....that is the sound of the clock counting down the time until Tom drops out of the race to support the leader, Arnold. He will do so for the same reason that Issa and Simon did.

McClintock is actually smarter than that. He has a strong hand to play before he actually supports Arnold in September. Why should he leave now when he can hand his base voters to Arnold at his price?

McClintock is using this affair to become a huge player in California G.O.P. and later, national politics. He's smart in the way Reagan was smart; that's what I like about him. Tom knows that if he is the spoiler and hands the election to Busta Nut, the rest of the Party will hold him in contempt. However, he needs to maintain credibility with his base voters, and he can only do that by making Arnold pay a price for his campiagn support.

TMC will want several things:

1. A hand in crafting next years budget in December and framing it as it passes through the Assembly and the State Senate.
2. A pledge that Arnold will not oppose restrictions on abortion rights, a concession that Arnold has apparently made already (these talk show appearances by Arnold are also negotiating sessions between the two camps), and a private pledge that Arnold will not push for further gun restrictions in CA. Arnold will agree to both of these, in secret of course.
3. Full out campaign support by Arnold AND the Bush Administration for McClintock's Senate campaign against Barbara Boxer next year. This WILL INCLUDE stumping by both Arnold and the President, at least three times by Bush if California appears to be in play. Getting Bush into the state to campaign for him next year will be a high priority demand by TMC. My guess is that Rove will agree to it, as Bush will need to go out there anyway. This will be the most secret part of any agreement, as it would look bad if Tom were to sell out for a quid pro quo.

A lot that is going on is happening between Arnold's people, with Pete Wilson doing the negotiating, McClintock's people (with McClintock's legal people doing the heavy lifting on his end), and Karl Rove's office brokering an agreement. TMC has every incentive to play coy and hold out. Reagan did it on many an occaision. Arnold and the White House want this election. TMC holds the keys to the Governor's mansion.

TMC will name his price, and Bush and Schwarzenegger will pay it.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[Princeliberty]

Arnold now reversing himself on 187.
He not willing to take on any of California's problems.

[brownie]

Yeah. god forbid someone actually votes for a conservative. Why are you even on this forum?

[LisaAnne]

*fotfl* Because I might not vote the way you would, that make you more conservative than me? Oh thank you for setting the standard for all of us.

[A CA Guy]

Looks like McC maintains a strong distant third place with his stranglehold on conservative talk radio listeners.

Where is the needed cross over?

[DoctorZIn]

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[christynsoldier]

hmmmmmmmmm...w/ that repub sellout Rove trying to screw
every conservative in the country, Tom Mc better not be
negotiating to back the Rino Ahnuld... they won't live up
to their promises anymore than Parsky did in the last election! Remember, Wilson promised NOT to raise taxes in
'90 and then gave us the biggest increase in history and
put the state in near depression! Who's wispering in Ahnuld's ear??? Petey Wilson and the Rino liars! Ahnuld will raise taxes cause its an emergency.... just like in TN and AL where Repubs are abandoning tax cuts for big
spending! Ahnuld has already sold out to the teachers union and promised not to touch the bloated edu budget, so
he will have to raise taxes since to be popular, he won't make any cuts! Let the Rino draw the indies from Busta and Tom WINS with the conservatives and the Reagan Democrats that do care about the state instead of La Raza!

[TheDon]

Nope. The only thing a governor can do is petition the feds to pay for the illegal aliens they let into the country. I think a Republican Arnold can do much more than any Democrat on that front.

There is perhaps one other option, he can pursue prop 187 in the courts. I doubt any Democrat would.

[TheDon]

"This will be the most secret part of any agreement, as it would look bad if Tom were to sell out for a quid pro quo."

Who Tom? Great analysis.

[HitmanLV]

McClintock optimistic despite polls

Just what I like in a political leader - a firm grasp on reality!

[BunnySlippers]

Arnold was already asked what constitues a crisis. You are having more fun twisting words.

Say hello to your choice for governor: Cruz Bustamante.

[Wolfstar]

I'm not a big believer in polls, especially this far out from an election. However, as an election gets closer, polls do tend to become somewhat more accurate. September is going to tell the tale about this recall. If, at the end of September, it looks like Bustamante has a real shot at winning this thing, I'm going to vote NO on the recall question and vote for the GOP candidate who's got the highest poll numbers. I know that's contradictory, but I can't take the chance of being party in any way, shape or form to Bustamante becoming governor of this state.

[Wolfstar]

When, oh when, are folks such as yourself going to get it: The choice is NOT between any two candidates, it is first between recalling the governor or not recalling him. Everything else is moot if he beats the recall. I know my own personal, on-the-ground, informal "poll" is only anecdotal, but I don't know one single person I've spoken to at work or elsewhere who is comfortable with this recall.

Call it a gut feel only, but I think it is entirely possible that Davis may defeat the recall despite what current polls say. If he doesn't the Dems' fall-back position is to elect Bustamante. I keep trying to impress upon FReepers that the entire, vast, professional, well-organized Dem machine in this state has already geared up to urge "NO" on recall and a vote for Bustamante. The unions are already prepared to pour many millions into this, as are the Indian gaming interests, the gay groups, environmentalists, and others.

At least, if you're planning on sticking with McClintock to the bitter end no matter what, open your eyes to the real challenge and the real enemy.

[Wolfstar]

Regarding your Post #20, if that's the truth about your thinking, rather than a touch of sarcasm, then you must be a Democrat. Either that, or your thinking is exceptionally muddled.

[Wolfstar]

Like a great many right-of-center Californians, Arnold Schwarzenegger is a Libertarian-leaning Republican - not a liberal in the Northeastern Republican mold (Jim Jeffords, Olympia Snowe, etc.). Just to provide an example, Larry Elder is one well-known person whose political views would be similar to Arnold's.

[Wolfstar]

Your speculation is interesting, and most of it is plausible. However, this statement: "A pledge that Arnold will not oppose restrictions on abortion rights..." makes it clear to me that you make the same mistake most right-of-center Californians make. You forget who populates and dominates our legislature. There is no way whatsoever that a bill restricting abortion rights will ever get out of committee in this legislature, let alone rise to the level where a Gov. Schwarzenegger would have to formulate a pro or con position on one.

I also can't help but chuckle at the certitude with which you state your speculation.

[Reaganwuzthebest]

At least, if you're planning on sticking with McClintock to the bitter end no matter what, open your eyes to the real challenge and the real enemy.

Well I'm not from California, but the one thing I do remember is in 1994 Wilson staged an overwhelming comeback using the legitimate issue of illegal immigration to do it. Polls say 187 is about as popular or even more so today.

If the election were between the principled Republican McClintock and Bustamante I'm conviced McClintock would win too as long as he's out front about it the way Wilson was. This no matter how much money the democratic machine throws out there. The election in California is more important to the nation than people realize, it could determine how Congress deals with the issue of illegal immigration. Arnold just appears to be Bustamante-lite at this point.

But you're right, first conservatives have to get past the recall, though with Davis at 20% it appears anyway he's toast.