Reality Check: McClintock can’t win (lesson of Perot and Nader)

[jmstein7]

Reality Check: McClintock can’t win (lesson of Perot and Nader)

The reality is this: McClintock simple cannot win. Ignore polls and stories that show McClintock gaining momentum – they are simply put out there by the liberal media outlets to split the GOP vote and put Bustamante in office. They chum the sharks – i.e. incite die hard conservatives and trick them into thinking their man can pull off a “Reagan”, and thereby distract them from reality:

- Half of Arnold’s supporters would support Bustamante over McClintock. If Arnold dropped out, it would not benefit McClintock more than Bustamante.

- McClintock doesn’t have the time to execute an effective Reaganesque campaign - There is no primary

- Arnold is preferable to Bustamante

- Having Governor Arnold would help put more McClintocks in office statewide in the next election cycle

- The Governor after the recall, if Republican, would not have any effective power to govern given the current composition of the state legislature, so ANY Republican counterpoint is preferable to a Democrat

- This is no time for ineffectual symbolism… a “McClintock or die” mentality will only put Bustamante in office

- Like Perot or Nader, supporting McClintock will put a REAL enemy in office

- A RINO is better than a DIRE (Democrat In REality)

- Any Republican in office will help the Republicans (including Bush) in the next presidential election, thus putting more real Republicans in office nationwide

- There is no second place here

- Splitting the GOP vote will give Bustamante a landslide

- Arnold has more statewide name recognition than McClintock

- McClintock, if Arnold dropped out, would not have time to recover from the inevitable media accusations of a “right-wing conspiracy”

- Putting Arnold in office will drive a wedge through liberal Hollywood, both encouraging closet GOPers to emerge and exposing the true nature of the Hollywood lefties (this has national benefits)

Is it really better to be dead right? If you really would rather have Bustamante in office then not vote for McClintock, then do so, but don’t complain when taxes and spending go through the roof, ala Bustamante. While Arnold is iffy, Bustamante is a SURE THING. Sometimes it is better to swallow one's pride than to spite a RINO and put a real, die-hard lefty into office.

[Texas_Dawg]

Enjoy Cruz.

[D. Brian Carter]

Half of Arnold’s supporters would support Bustamante over McClintock.

The very reason I would never vote for Arnold. If his policies and agenda are such that they cross-over with Bustamante supporters, something is wrong.

Thank goodness I don't live in Cali.

[Rudder]

Considering the demographics of California, there's no way McClintock could beat Bustamonte. Although less than a true conservative, Arnold does have a chance through his "star" power to overcome the leftist and the racist latino voters.

[Torie]

Half of Arnold’s supporters would support Bustamante over McClintock

What is your reasoning for that I wonder? I find it odd, since about 70% of Arnold's support is coming from registered Pubbies, and only about 15% from registered Dems. Maybe we should wait for the next poll without Simon, and see what's what. Maybe we should see a poll that has one question excluding McClintock as a choice, and another excluding Arnold as a choice.

The suggestion that "stories" that McClintock is "gaining momentum" are being generated by "liberals" is also quite a mouthful IMO.

[ARCADIA]

The East bound wagon trains will be forming soon, and there is no calvary in sight. I have to wonder where Bush is in all this. Can our president even find California on the map? Time will tell; but, with such a key election, in such a key state, at such a critical time, it looks like the national Republican leadership is still asleep at the switch.

[jmstein7]

It's not that. Generally disinterested voters, i.e. not partisans, in CA are simply conditioned to vote for Democrats. Arnold siphons off those votes, but they would not otherwise be inclined (without a primary and then a real election with realistic time parameters) to vote for a Repblican candidate.

[randog]

I have to wonder where Bush is in all this.

The WH was hoping the recall never went forward. They wanted Davis to stay in office to inflict more pain on Californians and damage on the state dem party in an effort to win CA in '04.

[Republic If You Can Keep It]

Don't give up.

The White House will be calling McClintock soon & he'll step down.

I'm sure Karl Rove has his phone number.

[onedoug]

Greater than 50% must first give Davis the boot. Otherwise, jactitate away.

[jmstein7]

If Libs really though McClintock was a threat or a real "vote-getter", then they would be focusing all their energy on tarring him and not Arnold. Arnold is the real threat to them.

[capt. norm]

This is like Dole vs. Clinton all over again.

Everyone pretty much agreed that Dole deserved the nomination and yet we all knew he stood a snowball's chance in Hades of winning.

Here we go again into "Fantasy Land" to select the perfect candidate, while a less-than-perfect candidate who stands a chance of winning, is deprived of the chance.

[finnman69]

McClintock voters will have themselves to blame if Bustament wins.

[Roscoe]

McClintock simple cannot win.

Four legs good, two legs bad!

[jmstein7]

Yup. As the Dems know, winning is always better than making a symbolic statement. Why cut off our nose to spite Arnold's face?

[ARCADIA]

They wanted Davis to stay in office to inflict more pain on Californians and damage on the state dem party in an effort to win CA in '04.

True, but the recall happened. It is time to get with the program. Bush's hands off everything approach is not going to help him in Ca. in 2004. First question he is going to get in California is going to be "where were you when we needed you?"

[kellynla]

Hey Dorothy, it won't happen by your keep repeating it ...bottom line, the Tokyo Rose propaganda "you can't win" died in 1945...we have 42 days and a couple of debates to go for your boy Aunold has to show up and actually answer some questions with or without the assistance of a Teleprompter or a ventriloquist! ROFLMAO Hey Aunold, come out, come out wherever you are...We are waitng for Mr. Hide & Seek to show up for the race??? You be sure and ping me when he does now!

[montag813]

incite die hard conservatives and trick them into thinking their man can pull off a “Reagan”, and thereby distract them from reality

This is not a primary. Even Reagan couldn't pull off a "Reagan" with only a month to work with. And McClintock 'aint no Reagan.