Evans & Novak: Dean Scaring Democrat Establishment

Human Events Online ^ | 08-25-03 | Novak, Robert D.S.

[Theodore R.]

Evans & Novak Week of August 25 by Robert Novak Posted Aug 22, 2003

Politics 2003 Week of August 25

Democratic: Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean is scaring the daylights out of the party establishment.

1) It is not brain surgery. Unless either Rep. Richard Gephardt (Mo.) beats Dean in Iowa and/or Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) beats him in New Hampshire, the Vermonter is home free.

2) Sen. Joe Lieberman (Conn.) has been belaboring Dean as too radical and a non-winner—epithets that seldom, if ever, stop an insurgent candidate. Lieberman’s path to the nomination is unclear.

3) Gephardt is trying to win as labor’s candidate, but failed this week to win an early AFL-CIO endorsement with Dean cutting him off with the left-wing unions. Gephardt hopes that support from 11 international unions will suffice, but that is not the same as the AFL-CIO standard.

4) Now that neither Al Gore nor Sen. Joseph Biden (Del.) is going to enter the field and Sen. Hillary Clinton (N.Y.) never was, the only possible addition to the field of nine is Gen. Wesley Clark. Dean is clearly the candidate to beat.

Alaska: This remains one of the two toughest seats for the Republicans to retain, but the picture looks a little brighter for appointive freshman Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R.), trying to win the seat in her own right.

Former Gov. Tony Knowles (D.) has launched his campaign. Knowles was elected governor twice, and, along with Sen. Ted Stevens (R.), is one of the two most popular politicians in Alaska. Knowles has twice won election statewide, and Murkowski never has.

Overcoming some of the nepotism charges following her appointment by her father, Gov. Frank Murkowski (R.), whose own popularity is lagging, she has begun building a name for herself. A Republican poll shows her with favorable ratings in the mid-fifties, about the same as Knowles. Her unfavorables are at 15%, less than half of Knowles’ 32%.

State Teamsters President Jerry Hood (R.) has decided against a primary challenge, and the D.C. GOP establishment is increasingly hopeful Murkowski will have a clean walk to the nomination. Murkowski has raised $1 million in the past few months.

This would be Knowles’ first time running in a presidential election year, and having Bush atop the ticket will hurt him. If any Democrat vocally opposing ANWR heads the Democratic column, that will be serious trouble for Knowles. Also, Knowles failed to earn a majority of the vote in both his governor elections. Leaning Republican Retention.

Arkansas: It increasingly appears Gov. Mike Huckabee (R.) will be the GOP nominee against Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D.).

Huckabee is trying to pull the levers necessary to get White House support for his bid. Former State Sen. Gunner DeLay (R.) has been mentioned as a possible contender, but he currently expresses little interest. Similarly, former congressman and current border security chief Asa Hutchinson (R.) is thought to be awaiting a shot at U.S. Attorney General rather than considering a return to elective politics.

This leaves State Sen. Jim Holt (R.) as the most likely alternative to Huckabee, either in a primary or if the Governor decides he wants to stay in Arkansas.

Holt would have a very steep climb against Lincoln, while Huckabee would enter nearly even with the senior Senator. To Huckabee’s detriment, he has raised taxes in Arkansas, while Lincoln has been generally supportive of Bush’s tax cut agenda. Leaning Democratic Retention.

Florida: Senate seats don’t come along very often in Florida, and so the stampede of congressmen and state legislative leaders in both parties is not surprising following Sen. Bob Graham’s (D.) decision to run for President.

On the Democratic side, two congressmen, the mayor of the largest city, a statewide official and the most prominent female politician in Florida are all running, with other entries possible. The early fundraising lead belongs to Rep. Peter Deutsch (D.) in his 11th year in Congress.

Miami Mayor Alex Penelas (D.), who is Cuban-American, is the most worrisome to the GOP. Rep. Alcee Hastings (D.) is running, as is the state’s former education commissioner Betty Castor (D.). The entire field will clear out, of course, if Graham drops his presidential bid and decides to seek renomination.

The GOP cast of potentials features State House speakers past and present, two congressmen, and the previous Republican Senate nominee. The two earliest candidates to throw in their hats were Rep. Mark Foley (R.) and 2000 Senate loser Bill McCollum (R.). Many Republicans were displeased with both choices, citing Foley’s less-than conservative record and McCollum’s poor campaign last time around.

Current House Speaker Johnnie Byrd (R.) also could emerge as a serious contender. The field is still shaping up and will likely thin out in coming months. Leaning Democratic Retention. Mr. Novak is a syndicated columnist and editor of the Evans-Novak Political Report.

[Theodore R.]

Novak sees Democrat senatorial retentions in AR and FL.

[Young Rhino]

Novak sees Democrat senatorial retentions in AR and FL.

Novak is a registered Dimwit. He is also an anti-semitic clymer who is ticked off that Colin Powell hasn't given the entire nation of Israel to Arafat. Novak does get inside stories from time to time. However, his prognostications rank up there with Zogby in their overt bias.

[Pubbie]

Very Good Information *Ping*!

"If any Democrat vocally opposing ANWR heads the Democratic column, that will be serious trouble for Knowles."

Bwahahahahaha - Dean will be the nominee, barring some unforseen event, and he is COMPLETELY against Anwar.

If Novak is right that there is no primary challenge to Murkowski (And I believe there won't be because of Rove et al) then the Bells Won't Toll For Knowles. :)

"It increasingly appears Gov. Mike Huckabee (R.) will be the GOP nominee against Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D.)."

I was initially against Huck because he was raising taxes in AR, however polls indicate the people of Arkansas still view him relatively favorably and if he runs then I think he will easily beat the lightweight liberal wolf in Conservative clothing Blanche Lincoln.

"The field is still shaping up and will likely thin out in coming months."

Let's hope most conservatives drop out to make room for Daniel Webster (Rove needs to get involved in this thing to start thining out the field!!!)

[Theodore R.]

Isn't Novak half-Jewish? I know that he is anti-Israeli in his columns and TV appearances. He is Catholic and a registered DC Democrat so that he can vote in primaries.

[sinkspur]

"Evans and Novak"?

Rollie Evans died three years ago.

[Young Rhino]

If Novak is half-Jewish he needs some serious therapy. I've been following his work for decades. He has never missed an opportunity to find fault with jews in general and Israel in particular. I was surprised that he didn't head to Iraq to serve as a human shield given his overt love for the Arab world.

[gusopol3]

in '94, he was almost alone in predicting the House takeover-- in the last few weeks prior to the election.

[JohnnyZ]

State Teamsters President Jerry Hood (R.) has decided against a primary challenge, and the D.C. GOP establishment is increasingly hopeful Murkowski will have a clean walk to the nomination.

It's looking more likely that she won't get a major challenge than it did previously, but Johne Binckley (bless his moderate heart) is still out there thinkin' about it as is conservative Sarah Palin. I'm shocked Lisa's #s are so good. I think she'd beat Knowles but I'd much rather a pro-lifer in that seat.

I wouldn't go so far as lean Dem for Florida, but that race is Way still in flux.

Huckabee has always wanted to be in the Senate and he'll run this time. He might even win. But that would be a tossup, and Huck would likely need a GOP breeze on election night to pick it up.

Wisconsin continues to lurk below the radar -- I like Tim Michels for that seat.

[vbmoneyspender]

You are letting your support for Israel cloud your view of Novak. Although Novak inexplicably has a total blind spot when it comes to Israel and understanding how Israel is the modern-day equivalent of Britain during WWII, Novak is one of the few columnists who reports actual news in almost every column he writes (except for those that touch on Israel). What's more, his columns are pretty reliable when it comes to reporting on political developments inside the United States (again excepting columns that concern Israel).

[Mannaggia l'America]

However, his prognostications rank up there with Zogby in their overt bias.

I don't know about that. I remember he called the 1994 GOP takeover of the House almost on the nose (52 seats won). He did that on the Capital Gang and the 3 libs (Shields, Hunt, and Carlson) all just laughed at him. Even I thought he was being too optomistic.

He's a little out there sometimes on predictions, but I keep an eye on what he says.

[Mean Daddy]

Don't forget Herman Cain in Georgia.

[jern]

for tomorrow

[Kuksool]

The FL Senate primary is scheduled for August 31, 2004. Almost a year from now. I suspect Bill McCollum will drop out before then. Foley looks like he's staying in the race for good. I like both Daniel Webster and Johnnie Byrd. The FL Senate race is going to be interesting.

[caltrop]

If Dean is the nominee and does have an A rating from the NRA, I think now would be a good time for Bush to decide he'll veto the Assault Weapons Ban and issue an Executive Order requiring commercial pilots to carry firearms.

[Theodore R.]

Hasn't G.W.Bush already reversed himself on the Assault Weapons Ban and adopted the Feinstein-Schwarzenegger position? I haven't heard anything on this lately.

[Theodore R.]

Well, I do believe that Robert David Sanders Novak is part-Jewish. Goldwater was part-Jewish too. I think Novak explained his Jewish roots on a C-SPAN "Book Notes" program several years ago. I know he started out as a moderate Republican but move steadily to the right over the years. One might say that Novak has NOT "grown" as a journalist, in the words of his Democrat colleague Al Hunt.

[Cincinatus]

Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean is scaring the daylights out of the party establishment.

Why exactly would he be scaring them? Clearly, his ideology is in close alignment with what most Democrats believe. So what's the problem?

Could be they know that he's unelectable and will lead the party down in flames. If so, one must ask exactly WHY they persist in their leftist nonsense since they know it's a political loser.

[Theodore R.]

Yes, Mr. Evans died of cancer, but Novak keeps the "Evans-Novak" name out of respect for his late colleague.

[GraniteStateConservative]

The NRA supports incumbents-- and, besides, Dean is NOT more "pro-gun" than Bush.

[GraniteStateConservative]

His position hasn't changed.

Bush expressed support for some gun control measures, including the ban on assault weapons and laws designed to keep guns out of the hands of juveniles. But he said he did not believe the waiting period for the purchase of handguns that is part of the Brady Act does much good, saying he prefers instant background checks. Source: Dan Balz, The Washington Post Apr 25, 1999

Bush opposed repeal of the 1994 assault weapon ban and indicated his openness to Clinton's call to raise the age of legal handgun ownership from 18 to 21. But Bush opposed Clinton's call for reinstituting 3-day waiting periods for gun purchases, saying he preferred instant background checks. And while he said he could support national legislation to extend such instant checks to purchases at unregulated gun shows, he’s made no effort to support a state bill that would have done just that in Texas. Source: L.A. Times May 1, 1999

In his 2000 presidential campaign, Bush came out for renewal and for an additional provision to ban the import of ammunition- feeding devices of 10 bullets or more. --Connecticut Sportsmen web site