Electric terrorists?

townhall ^ | 8-16-03 | Joel Mowbray

[JustPiper]

Thursday’s massive power outages exposed our vulnerabilities in all of three minutes—the amount of time it took for 21 power plants to shut down. But over the next several hours, the whole messy affair demonstrated Americans’ resilience.

It struck like a bolt of lightning—ironically, the original excuse given—leaving two nations simultaneously stunned and searching for instant answers. A lot of theories were advanced—the aforementioned lightning, a power plant fire, simple overusage—but the only answer embraced by one and all was: “this is not, repeat not, an act of terrorism.”

If no one knew the actual cause, how could the authorities declare with such authority that it was not, repeat not, terrorism? Even as it became clear as the hours passed that the real answer was still a mystery, the only non-mystery seemed to be that the nearly unprecedented blackouts were not, repeat not, an act of terrorism.

The odds of terrorists being behind the attacks are probably slim. Al Qaeda has been hobbled by the capture of some of its most sadistic masterminds—goons that are much harder to replace than human bombs whose only job qualification is the desire for 72 virgins. And an attack of this sophistication is likely beyond al Qaeda’s capabilities—for the moment.

Although bearded cavedwellers—albeit ones armed with state-of-the-art laptops—are likely not the best candidates for knocking out a massive electrical grid, modern-day mercenaries who will hack for cash are. As evidenced by the recent arrest of the British citizen willing to sell a surface-to-air missile to al Qaeda, hard currency has a way of ramping up al Qaeda’s potential for devastation in a hurry.

And it’s not as if this possibility hasn’t been thought about before—at least by professional thinkers who get paid to dream big dreams. In the January 2002 issue of Foreign Policy magazine, political scientist Thomas Homer-Dixon sketched out a now-eerily familiar sequence of events:

“It’s 4 a.m. on a sweltering summer night in July 2003. Across much of the United States, power plants are working full tilt to generate electricity for millions of air conditioners that are keeping a ferocious heat wave at bay....” Then the terrorists strike and suddenly “a national electrical system already under immense strain is massively short-circuited, causing a cascade of power failures across the country. Traffic lights shut off. Water and sewage systems are disabled. Communications systems break down. The financial system and national economy come screeching to a halt. Sound far-fetched?”

Just in case the terrorists hadn’t been thinking along Homer-Dixon’s lines, the real blackouts provided a doozy of a roadmap. A northeaster corridor covering millions of people crashed, leaving hundreds of thousands—or more—stranded. Elevators stopped. Water fountains went dry. Traffic lights went dark—as did all lights for hundreds of miles. Highways turned into parking lots. Hundreds of flights were diverted or canceled. Subway systems, denied the electricity that is their lifeblood, ground to a halt. Subway-dependent New York City was particularly hard hit.

Aerial shots over the West Side of Manhattan during afternoon rush hour showed an untold number of specks massing toward the handful of ferries, the only transportation from the island to New Jersey. Later that night, thousands of Manhattanites camped out in Times Square, dabbling in a fleeting moment of “community.” Even into Friday, the pain was still being felt, as few flights were coming in or out of New York, and even fewer cell phones were operational.

But what didn’t happen was more remarkable.

There was one heat-related heart attack in New York, and only a handful of injuries. Instead of looting, people held barbeques and ice cream parties to consume food before it expired. Instead of people at each other’s throats, people merrily stood side-by-side as they lined their throats with alcohol. Even in famously testy New York, people were nicer to each other under enormous stress than they otherwise would have been.

Sure, the terrorists may strike us as hard as whatever it was that hit us Thursday. But even if they do as much damage as was done, America will persevere—without even breaking a sweat. Just as we have always done before.

[JustPiper]

Al-Q claimed responsibilty and said they wanted us in the dark and panic, many lives lost, and poor Al-Q didn't succeed did they?

[JustPiper]

Ping!

[snopercod]

Ed Markey (D) from Massachusetts was just on Fox blaming the blackouts on Bush.

Yawn...

[_Jim]

and poor Al-Q didn't succeed did they?

I dunno ... how many power distrubances do we have a year?

[eno_]

If it was terrorism, it is far more likely to have been physical sabotage than cyber-terror.

If anyone pushing a cyber-terror theory cannot tell you what kind of system would have to be compromised and give you a theory on how to do that, then they have zero idea on how likely such an attack is.

On the other hand, if a government shill says "It definitely was not terrorism" and can't tell you what it really was, they, too, are talking out their ass.

Until a cause is found, terrorists causing a fault in power lines or other parts of the infrastructure using stuff as simple as metal bars and cables can't be ruled out.

[_Jim]

Thursday’s massive power outages exposed our vulnerabilities in all of three minutes ..

NO MORE SO than driving a car around half-sleepy with bad brakes ... REMMEMBER, several OTHER system operators (AEP & PJM) interconnected WITH the that same 'grid' that went down DIDN'T go down ...

EVERYBODY seems to be ignoring this 'upside'.

[_Jim]

, it is far more likely to have been physical sabotage than cyber-terror.

Of course THIS would leave EVIDENCE - something rather EASILY identifiable as same (CHAR marks from chains thrown over 345 KV transmission line for instance) ...

Can you tell us HOW MANY power outages or 'power disturbances' there are in an average year?

[_Jim]

Until a cause is found ...

What, in general, causes a 'grid collapse' on this scale?

[appalachian_dweller]

I was very proud of the way people behaved during the outage.

AQ has made us stronger. Here's an acticle I read shortly after the 911 attacks. I have it posted on my cube wall.

Article by Leonard Pitts Jr. -

It's my job to have something to say.

They pay me to provide words that help make sense of that which troubles the American soul. But in this moment the only thing I can find to say, the only words that seem to fit, must be addressed to the unknown author of this suffering.

You monster. You beast. You unspeakable bastard.

What lesson did you hope to teach us by your coward's attack on our World Trade Center, our Pentagon, us? What was it you hoped we would learn? Whatever it was, please know that you failed.

Did you want us to respect your cause? You just damned your cause.

Did you want to make us fear? You just steeled our resolve.

Did you want to tear us apart? You just brought us together.

Let me tell you about my people. We are a vast and quarrelsome family, a family rent by racial, social, political and class division, but a family nonetheless. We're frivolous, yes, capable of expending tremendous emotional energy on pop cultural minutiae -- a singer's revealing dress, a ball team's misfortune, a cartoon mouse. We're wealthy, too, spoiled by the ready availability of trinkets and material goods, and maybe because of that, we walk through life with a certain sense of blithe entitlement. We are fundamentally decent, though -- peace-loving and compassionate. We struggle to know the right thing and to do it. And we are, the overwhelming majority of us, people of faith, believers in a just and loving God.

Some people -- you, perhaps -- think that any or all of this makes us weak. You're mistaken. We are not weak. Indeed, we are strong in ways that cannot be measured by arsenals.

IN PAIN

Yes, we're in pain now. We are in mourning and we are in shock. We're still grappling with the unreality of the awful thing you did, still working to make ourselves understand that this isn't a special effect from some Hollywood blockbuster, isn't the plot development from a Tom Clancy novel. Both in terms of the awful scope of their ambition and the probable final death toll, your attacks are likely to go down as the worst acts of terrorism in the history of the United States and, probably, the history of the world. You've bloodied us as we have never been bloodied before.

But there's a gulf of difference between making us bloody and making us fall. This is the lesson Japan was taught to its bitter sorrow the last time anyone hit us this hard, the last time anyone brought us such abrupt and monumental pain. When roused, we are righteous in our outrage, terrible in our force. When provoked by this level of barbarism, we will bear any suffering, pay any cost, go to any length, in the pursuit of justice.

I tell you this without fear of contradiction. I know my people, as you, I think, do not. What I know reassures me. It also causes me to tremble with dread of the future.

In the days to come, there will be recrimination and accusation, fingers pointing to determine whose failure allowed this to happen and what can be done to prevent it from happening again. There will be heightened security, misguided talk of revoking basic freedoms. We'll go forward from this moment sobered, chastened, sad. But determined, too. Unimaginably determined.

THE STEEL IN US

You see, the steel in us is not always readily apparent. That aspect of our character is seldom understood by people who don't know us well. On this day, the family's bickering is put on hold.

As Americans we will weep, as Americans we will mourn, and as Americans, we will rise in defense of all that we cherish.

So I ask again: What was it you hoped to teach us? It occurs to me that maybe you just wanted us to know the depths of your hatred. If that's the case, consider the message received. And take this message in exchange: You don't know my people. You don't know what we're capable of. You don't know what you just started.

But you're about to learn.

[Imperialist]

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/cyberwar/view/4_hi.html


Ever see that clip?

[Pro-Bush]

Who is to say that the AQ is not responsible for the increasingly number of nasty and more harmful computer viruses against America institutions and companies since the blackout. Maybe the Power Grid was target number 1, and now they are going for secondary targets.

[eno_]

Yes, sabotage would leave some physical evidence.

But the news media isn't out there photographing power lines, and probably would not know what to look for, or where. So sabotage would be easy to play down.

I'd bet on human error, with a covering bet on sabotage. I'd short (no pun) cyber-terror.

[zoyd]

I've seen it... between Weiss and the IDART guy, I believe our power grid is just waiting to get whacked.

[_Jim]

I'd bet on human error,

Human error plays a part, more often, than most people realize - from wiring errors on relay controls to mis-thrown feeder switches during maintenance ... the BIG NYC Blackout in 1977 was a result of a) incompetence/slowness to respond changing situations in the control on the SO's (System Operator's) part and b) FAILED maintanence procedures on behalf of Con Ed overall and c) insufficient 'spinning reserves' standing by while a thunderstorm proceeded to take down important 'tie' lines to the north of NYC ...

(Is the 'net slow today or what..)

[_Jim]

I believe our power grid is just waiting to get whacked.

The power induustry EVERY DAY takes massive, repeated ZAPS from mother nature - and continues to provide you with reliable power -

- it would take a MASSIVE coordinated effort to do this ...

[_Jim]

It struck like a bolt of lightning

No it didn't.

It developed over SEVERAL HOURS.

Your *local power* may have gone down that quickly, but, the pertabations seen on the grid were on-going several hours before the final leg on the stool gave way ...

[eno_]

Interesting, but other than "putting people into computer classes" there was not one specific case of demonstrated AQ expertise cited. Nothing like "we saw them port-scan and crack system X at utiliy Y." All generalities. Lot's of blather about wireless home thermostats. Even the potentially specific stuff about "red team" attacks were non-specific.

The read team info makes me think a national security service could develop a similar expertise, but a red team, or a hostile team, is by nature a multi-year, multi-million-dollar enterprise.

[zoyd]

From Frontline:

NARRATOR: At Sandia National Laboratories in New Mexico, they worry about just how vulnerable the nation's power grid is. Recently, they initiated a series of red team assaults on SCADA systems that control power companies, including their own solar power-generating station.

MICHAEL SKROCH: When we go after an electrical power system, electrical power provider for the critical infrastructures, we always penetrate that system. During an attack on a SCADA system, an operator will see what the adversary wants them to see and-- of course, dependent upon the scenario and the security of that system. So an operator may see a false indication of the condition of their infrastructure. They may be fooled into taking actions that are unwarranted, so that they themselves damage the infrastructure, not the attacker.

What the attacker did was implement an attack script that befuddled the display of the controller, so that when they move one control on a generator, it affects a second. This will confuse the operator and perhaps cause an effect on the infrastructure that's damaging.

At the solar facility, when we attacked the IT infrastructure, what we did was, we hacked into the system using a common technique. Once we were into the system, we were able to access any of the command and control functions that the operator would be able to use. In this case, we simply executed a script that moved four of the mirrors and danced them around on the solar facility.

The Red Team could have gained access to the system, written a more specific script to have a specific effect on the mirrors, such as moving them to the wrong location or causing damage to the solar facility.

INTERVIEWER: Could you and a group of friends take down the electrical grid of the United States or North America?

HACKER: I don't know if you'd be able to take down the whole grid, but I know that you could take down significant pieces of it for, let's say, operationally useful periods of time. Penetrating a SCADA system that's running a Microsoft operating system takes less than two minutes.

INTERVIEWER: Could your team take down the entire grid in the United States?

MICHAEL SKROCH: The IDART Red Team could demonstrate numerous vulnerabilities and system effects against U.S. critical infrastructure that are scenario-dependent and adversary-dependent. And we do this so that we can help improve the systems, so that they can't be taken down in the future and a cyber Pearl Harbor won't affect the U.S. infrastructures.

INTERVIEWER: But could you, if you wanted to?

MICHAEL SKROCH: I won't answer that question.

NARRATOR: And even though the power companies don't like to talk about it, this threat really scares them, especially industry experts on cyber security. FRONTLINE reporter Jim Gilmore talked to one of them, Joe Weiss.

INTERVIEWER: What's the worst-case scenario? Power, we're talking here, power lines, power grid.

JOE WEISS: Absolute worst? I won't even say absolute, but a very worst case could be loss of power for six months or more.

INTERVIEWER: Over how big an area?

JOE WEISS: Big as you want.

INTERVIEWER: Is that a possibility?

JOE WEISS: Yes.

INTERVIEWER: How?

JOE WEISS: I'd just as soon not go into it.

INTERVIEWER: But you believe, as an expert and a man who understands these systems, that that, indeed, is a possibility.

JOE WEISS: It's possible.

INTERVIEWER: Why isn't Washington quaking in its shoes?

JOE WEISS: I can't tell you. I don't know. I don't know.

[_Jim]

Just in case the terrorists hadn’t been thinking along Homer-Dixon’s lines, the real blackouts provided a doozy of a roadmap.

WHEN Goliath the giant stumbles, it's on his own Goliath sized shoe laces ... so, too, it takes cooperation, or inattention from within, to get a 'grid' to come down as it did on the 14th ... between manual and automatic load shedding, a mandated amount of 'spinning reserves' on line there are tools avialable for system operators to cope - mis-trained operators or stupid mistakes can be costly though ...

[Imperialist]

I'm kinda wondering if it just got "whacked" last weekend.

I checked this link to make sure it still works. It had a slow load time for some reason today, but did load. Some decent analysis about last weekends blackout. From another FR thread:

http://www.sgtstryker.com/weblog/archives/003724.php#003724