Overblown ogre of 'outsourcing'

The Washington Times ^ | 18 Aug 03 | By Bruce Bartlett

[.cnI redruM]

Everybody seems to be worried about manufacturing these days. All the Democratic presidential candidates condemn the practice of "outsourcing"

[America's Resolve]

I hear ya bud!

I've been a professional IT consultant for real close to 20 years. Never had a problem getting work lined up. Great references, great skills, willing to travel to where the job is to get work. DOZENS of people calling me with IT jobs when i was between contracts. Resonable salary.

Don't even get calls in the single digits now. Sent out hundreds of resumes and paid services to send out thousands more. I got back a handful of responses for jobs that I'm not qualified for. Done everything i've done for 20 years and can't get people to even talk about interviews, let alone getting hired.

Don't believe the ones above who tell ya that employment numbers aren't important and that outsourcing isn't importan and H1B "GUEST" visas aren't important.

They're ALL important. I'm coming out of denial now that I'm on the verge of losing the house that I've been putting my sweat and labor into for 7 years now. You bet its hurting the economy.

The ones who are denying that its happening are the ones who's employers simply haven't figured out how to outsource their jobs yet to find a way to get it done cheaper by some foreigner.

I'm looking at going from $45/hr to $10-15/hr. Thats going to hurt the taxbase and the economy since I'll have FAR less disposable income to spend and far less money to save. And with my skills and qualifications a job or consulting contract should be a slam dunk. I doubt I'm the only one in this situation. www.dice.com ran a survey of its IT pros and found that in the year post 911 the IT industry lost 630,000 jobs.

Godspeed

[null and void]

You bet its hurting the economy.

What? You mean you're not buying new cars, paying a gardener, going to movies, eating out, having your shoes shined, your car washed, your house remodeled, and vacationing in the Hamptons???

Doncha think you should be doing something for the economy?

Me? I did my first experiment at home canning the day before yesterday. Hope it doesn't kill me.

For the extra bonus round, try getting a job in retail. Wally World won't even hire you as a greeter, under the theory that as soon as the job market picks up, you'll dump your minimum wage part time job for a real one...

[armed_in_sydney]

Getting govt involved, dictating terms of how people ought to act, buy goods, live is patently socialistic, nay communist.

What you say is true,but protecting a peoples ability to achieve and maintain economic independence isnt communism.Countries that fail economically usually do so by ignoring common sense practices.Creating a level playing field for the whole world will be to the detriment of those who live in wealthy nations.Certainly not common sense.

[holdmuhbeer]

If the Republicans don't get a handle on this, come November 2004 they'll be trying to get the license plate number of the truck that hit them.

Agreed, I'm one of those folks in the center and we make and break elections. You folks on the far right and far left are robots and will vote straight repub and dem everytime no matter what. Its people like me that decide it and the first respectable candidate that addresses this problem gets my vote. Flame away but thats just the way it is.

[txhurl]

I'm looking at going from $45/hr to $10-15/hr.

Indeed you are, and you know what, why not consider a whole new trade, something you've always wanted to do? As an analyst, why not solve problems outside zeros and ones? or credits and debits?

I made the mistake of quitting a $25+ IT job in early 2001- by the time I was ready to get back again a year later the industry was in tatters.

Good luck, and don't be afraid to do something completely different.

[America's Resolve]

Wally World won't even hire you as a greeter, under the theory that as soon as the job market picks up, you'll dump your minimum wage part time job for a real one...

Amen! It's almost comical or would be if I wasn't so depressed. You can see their eyes twitch even. I walk into a REAL small business in rural Iowa and apply for a job and suddenly thier eyes glaze over and you can see the wheels turning as they're thinking, "Ok. This guy says he's got 20 years of computers and was last working for $45/hr. Now hes sitting in our waiting room applying for a $15k/yr job. What's wrong with this picture."

Needless to say I never hear from them again.

[meatloaf]

Fruehauf closed a plant near Harrisburg in the early eighties. I wonder how many execs got big bonuses based on the imaginary savings.

[null and void]

I wonder how many execs got big bonuses based on the imaginary savings.

Ummm, two bonuses actually.

One for the imaginary savings from moving the operations to Tennesee.

One for the imaginary savings from shutting down the Tennesee plant and the imaginary profit from liquidating its' assets for <10¢ on the dollar...

[Jim Cane]

If their goods were pieces of crap, do you think that they would still be the #1 retailer?

With all this outsourcing debate getting so much mileage I went into a WalMart to see for myself just how crappy their merchandise was. It was worse than I could have imagined. I have nothing against you shopping there, however if you're into that whole redneck chic thing.

"Worst looking hat I ever saw...but it looks good on you."

[Marauder]

dictating terms of how people ought to act, buy goods, live is patently socialistic, nay communist.

This isn't a definition of regulating interstate commerce.

[jim_trent]

The ones who got out early made out well. The ones that waited and the middle managers got screwed. Lost my pension and had to start over at 40.

[meatloaf]

Sorry to read that. Fruehauf used to be a leader in their business.

[meatloaf]

Sorry to read that. Fruehauf used to be a leader in their business.

[WOSG]

"Highest percentage of GDP produced in factories during the 40's - 35%. Highest percentage of US GDP produced in factories ever (2000) - 40%"

The point is, if 'manufacturing is going overseas', these numbers wouldnt be steady. Clearly *some* things we import, other things we make ourselves. It bursts one particular myth - that our manufacturing sector is shrinking: It is not.

"Please let us forego the smoke and mirrors and honestly discuss issues with facts taht are clear and honest."

Indeed. That above statistic is the *only* statistic in a ream of content-free argumentative posts. Why not debate facts --- with *facts*.

[harpseal]

The point is, if 'manufacturing is going overseas', these numbers wouldnt be steady. Clearly *some* things we import, other things we make ourselves. It bursts one particular myth - that our manufacturing sector is shrinking: It is not.

Wrong it shows no such thing. I have given a number of reasons to account for the difference between periods separated by over 50 to 60 years. Now percentage of GDP prtoduced in factories is a a relatively meaningless number without a whole lot more definition. Making the claim you just did without a whole lot more further substantiation is not only disingenuous it is down right insulting to anyone with a brain reading it.

Has the definition of what part is produced in Factories changed in the way the two numbers fifty years apart are calculated. Free traders are per force always coming up with some new numbert which is undefined as to how it is arrived at, This off the wall comparison of two percentage numbers fifty years apart is so off the wall it is down right insulting. Now the calculation of the GDP has changed over the years. There is no normalization factor so included nor any reference to it.

If you want statistics Here is a link to a regression analysis with hard numbers on the Trade with China from the US direct trade review commision .

Your wild percentages from fifty years apart are merely an intentional diversion until shown otyherwise. Post a logical mathematical chain that shows the conclusion drawn is valid from the data and I shall be happy to conceed this point but these numbers as presented are at best an irrelevancy and more likely just another attempt to mislead. Included in your justification I expect a good accounting for the effects of technology and food prices on those numbers because that affects those numbers. I expect a full accounting of the effects of the offshoring of much of our energy neeeds and the decline of Coal mining and domestic oil production relative to our total energy needs. In short if in year a Coal mining accounts for 10% of the GDP and in year B coal production is down to 1% of the GDP that could be account for by either the rest of the econmy growing or by Coal production shrinking. I chose coal because that is an industry that has experienced a substantial shrinkage since the 1940's. Another industry that has experienced shrinkage since the 1940's ois mining in general. Mopre agricultural land has come out of production. Lumbering contributes far less to teh GDP as a percentage now than in the 1940's because of shrinkage of that industry.

If the Free Trade position is so correct why are there so many lies in support of it and so few hard numbers that directly support it? This is not a hard number and I have just expllained why. Now would you care to justify why you made this statement which is so obviously not supported.

[lelio]

If you want statistics Here is a link to a regression analysis with hard numbers on the Trade with China from the US direct trade review commision

I would very much like to see that report, could you post the link?

I think just posting the GDP is useless without posting deficit numbers. If 80% of a finished product is made in China the full price of the good shows up on GDP while the 80% shows up on the deficit. But I would like to find that out for sure.

[harpseal]

here it is LINK

[harpseal]

It is a long enough pievce that I do not remember the actual interrelationship being diswcussed but I would also like to point out the link you reqyuested was available on another thread. No problem just pointing out that you did not quote me from here with a link I did not provide.

[WOSG]

fwiw, the numbers/stats were not mine.

At least your response is quantitative, but you shouldnt call numbers 'insulting' just because they challenge your views. They are what they are, interpret as you wish.

I would add though that our GNP has grown much since 1940s, so if anything, the manufacturing numbers show a lot more technology content (eg cars, planes, drugs, semiconductors and computers) now than before. Also, the point on coal and lumbe is useful but imho tells a different story: As our economy has grown, resource-extraction industries and resource commodities have become a smaller share of overall economic pie - technology and services has grown in the gap. That trend will imho continue as it should under conditions of improving productivity.

[WOSG]

Hard number to support free trade? Every dollar of our exports is such a number.