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To: WOSG
The point is, if 'manufacturing is going overseas', these numbers wouldnt be steady. Clearly *some* things we import, other things we make ourselves. It bursts one particular myth - that our manufacturing sector is shrinking: It is not.

Wrong it shows no such thing. I have given a number of reasons to account for the difference between periods separated by over 50 to 60 years. Now percentage of GDP prtoduced in factories is a a relatively meaningless number without a whole lot more definition. Making the claim you just did without a whole lot more further substantiation is not only disingenuous it is down right insulting to anyone with a brain reading it.

Has the definition of what part is produced in Factories changed in the way the two numbers fifty years apart are calculated. Free traders are per force always coming up with some new numbert which is undefined as to how it is arrived at, This off the wall comparison of two percentage numbers fifty years apart is so off the wall it is down right insulting. Now the calculation of the GDP has changed over the years. There is no normalization factor so included nor any reference to it.

If you want statistics Here is a link to a regression analysis with hard numbers on the Trade with China from the US direct trade review commision .

Your wild percentages from fifty years apart are merely an intentional diversion until shown otyherwise. Post a logical mathematical chain that shows the conclusion drawn is valid from the data and I shall be happy to conceed this point but these numbers as presented are at best an irrelevancy and more likely just another attempt to mislead. Included in your justification I expect a good accounting for the effects of technology and food prices on those numbers because that affects those numbers. I expect a full accounting of the effects of the offshoring of much of our energy neeeds and the decline of Coal mining and domestic oil production relative to our total energy needs. In short if in year a Coal mining accounts for 10% of the GDP and in year B coal production is down to 1% of the GDP that could be account for by either the rest of the econmy growing or by Coal production shrinking. I chose coal because that is an industry that has experienced a substantial shrinkage since the 1940's. Another industry that has experienced shrinkage since the 1940's ois mining in general. Mopre agricultural land has come out of production. Lumbering contributes far less to teh GDP as a percentage now than in the 1940's because of shrinkage of that industry.

If the Free Trade position is so correct why are there so many lies in support of it and so few hard numbers that directly support it? This is not a hard number and I have just expllained why. Now would you care to justify why you made this statement which is so obviously not supported.

95 posted on 08/19/2003 4:40:35 AM PDT by harpseal (Stay well - Stay safe - Stay armed - Yorktown)
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To: harpseal
If you want statistics Here is a link to a regression analysis with hard numbers on the Trade with China from the US direct trade review commision

I would very much like to see that report, could you post the link?

I think just posting the GDP is useless without posting deficit numbers. If 80% of a finished product is made in China the full price of the good shows up on GDP while the 80% shows up on the deficit. But I would like to find that out for sure.
96 posted on 08/19/2003 7:49:46 AM PDT by lelio
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To: harpseal
fwiw, the numbers/stats were not mine.

At least your response is quantitative, but you shouldnt call numbers 'insulting' just because they challenge your views. They are what they are, interpret as you wish.

I would add though that our GNP has grown much since 1940s, so if anything, the manufacturing numbers show a lot more technology content (eg cars, planes, drugs, semiconductors and computers) now than before. Also, the point on coal and lumbe is useful but imho tells a different story: As our economy has grown, resource-extraction industries and resource commodities have become a smaller share of overall economic pie - technology and services has grown in the gap. That trend will imho continue as it should under conditions of improving productivity.

99 posted on 08/19/2003 10:26:32 AM PDT by WOSG
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To: harpseal
Hard number to support free trade? Every dollar of our exports is such a number.
100 posted on 08/19/2003 10:29:12 AM PDT by WOSG
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