Why California recall vote may hinge on party unity

Christian Science Monitor ^ | aug. 18, 2003 | Liz Marlantes

[FairOpinion]

A new poll in California shows GOP vote is spread among field. Among Democrats, some oppose any candidacy from their party. By Liz Marlantes | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

LOS ANGELES - In the chaotic California recall battle, a fundamental factor is emerging as more significant than either the record of Gov. Gray Davis, or the colorful array of candidates vying to replace him: partisan unity.

With a new survey showing Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante running slightly ahead of Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger among possible replacement candidates to Mr. Davis - despite a vast deficit in name recognition and star power - the recall election may be turning into a test of which party can present a more cohesive front. The challenges for both sides: consolidating support behind a single contender, and getting more voters to the polls.

Certainly, both parties are struggling with internal divisions. Some Democratic leaders remain opposed to Mr. Bustamante's candidacy, seeing any Democrat on the ballot as undermining the effort to fight the recall, while others regard him as their party's best hope.

But increasingly, it's Republicans who are facing the deeper rifts. With at least four credible candidates on the ballot - including businessman Bill Simon, state Sen. Tom McClintock, and former baseball commissioner Peter Ueberroth - the party may wind up diluting its vote enough to prevent its front-runner, Mr. Schwarzenegger, from winning.

It's a divide that may prove extremely difficult to bridge. Analysts point out that the Democratic split is essentially over tactics, with the two sides disagreeing over how best to keep control of the governorship. The GOP clash, by contrast, goes to the heart of party philosophy, with the conservative and moderates wings at odds over which sort of candidate and platform to support.

"The split on the Republican side is ideological. The split on the Democratic side is not. And ideological divisions are harder to heal than nonideological ones," says Bruce Cain, a political scientist at the University of California at Berkeley.

Moves to minimize divisions Democrats have already managed to minimize some of their party's divisions. With Bustamante the only prominent Democrat on the ballot (Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi originally announced his intention to run, but was quickly induced to change his mind), the party is coalescing around a "vote no on recall, yes on Bustamante" strategy.

Of course, the two sides may continue clashing over where the bulk of the party's resources should be spent - fighting the recall or promoting Bustamante. Many Davis supporters worry Bustamante's campaign will inevitably dilute the party's anti-recall message.

"Cruz Bustamante's decision to get on the ballot undercut a powerful argument from a mass-media standpoint - which was that this is purely a Republican coup," says Phil Trounstine, director of the Survey and Policy Research Institute at San Jose State University, and a former communications director for Davis.

But the Democratic disagreements seem relatively minor compared with the division dogging the GOP - a split analysts say has cost the party in recent statewide elections, and may do so again.

"The state really has two Republican parties," says Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll. The moderate wing holds more voters, but much of the organization is on the conservative side, he says, resulting in a series of right-wing nominees who have gone on to lose in the general election - as in 2002, when Mr. Simon beat former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan in the primary, only to lose to Davis.

The recall election has no primary, but with several GOP candidates on the ballot, it may wind up functioning as a primary and general election all in one, with conservatives taking just enough votes away from Schwarzenegger to keep him from winning overall.

Indeed, the latest polls underscore the difficulties the actor faces in trying to pull together a winning coalition. The most recent Field Poll finds Schwarzenegger trailing Bustamante, 25 to 22 percent. But an additional 22 percent of voters are split among the other Republican candidates: Mr. McClintock received 9 percent, Simon 8 percent, and Mr. Ueberroth 5 percent. If all those voters simply switched to support Schwarzenegger instead - and none of his current supporters abandoned him - he would win handily.

But by appealing more overtly to conservatives, the actor would almost certainly limit his ability to reach out to Democratic and independent voters - a group he also needs, and seems intent on courting, with recent moves to add prominent Democrats such as investor Warren Buffett and actor Rob Lowe to his campaign team.

"The more visible Democrats he can put onto his advisory committee, the more appealing he will be to independent and Democratic voters. But the more he puts those guys on, the more the conservatives will likely stick with their candidates," says Professor Cain.

To some extent, the Democrats could face a similar problem on the left, with columnist Arianna Huffington and Green Party candidate Peter Camejo potentially siphoning liberal support from Bustamante. But the effect is less significant, because those candidates are drawing a smaller percentage of the vote: In the Field poll, Ms. Huffington received 4 percent while Mr. Camejo was at 2 percent.

The differences between the center- and left-leaning candidates may also be less severe, making it easier for them to coalesce behind a single contender.

One contingent's strong views By contrast, Schwarzenegger's stances on a number hot-button social issues - from abortion to gay rights to gun control - are sharply at odds with right-wing orthodoxy. "It's hard to coalesce around a candidate when a certain part of the party has such strong views," says Mr. DiCamillo.

Some Republican leaders have lately hinted that the party's best hope might be to simply pressure other candidates to drop out - essentially making Schwarzenegger the only choice for Republican voters.

But in a party that's spent years in disarray, most observers don't see that as likely, either.

"There's no Republican in California strong enough to crack any type of whip," says Allan Hoffenblum, a GOP strategist. "If there's going to be a consolidation [of candidates], that's going to be a decision made purely by Bill Simon, Tom McClintock, and their people."

[FairOpinion]

"The recall election has no primary, but with several GOP candidates on the ballot, it may wind up functioning as a primary and general election all in one, with conservatives taking just enough votes away from Schwarzenegger to keep him from winning overall."

Simon and McClintock are busily attacking Arnold, instead of attacking Bustamante.

While the Republicans are busy tearing down the only Republican candidate who can beat Bustamante, Cruz is smiling, he can't have any better friends than McClintock and Simon.

[Kevin Curry]

. . . the party may wind up diluting its vote enough to prevent its front-runner, Mr. Schwarzenegger, from winning.

The solution is obvious: Arnie, Simon, and Ueberroth need to withdraw and throw their support to McClintock.

[tkathy]

Arnold is the only one who could win.

[gov_bean_ counter]

However, in the long run it may be better for the Pubbies if Bustmaan wins. After a couple of years of this racist pig, the African-American vote in California may just stay at home in 2004.

[Kevin Curry]

Not so. The other liberals could win, too.

Arnie's just one liberal among whole zoo full of the vermin.

[gov_bean_ counter]

Scuse me. After a year of this guy. (too much time in the sun today)

[visualops]

In a state that is roughly 45% registered Dems, vs 35% Republican, what you are proposing is most likely a losing scenario.

[Dog Gone]

The only thing that is clear today is that Simon should withdraw, although I'm sure he won't. And diehard conservatives will never decide to settle for half a loaf, even if Schwarzenegger is leading by double digits going into the election.

This election may very well boil down to whether Schwarzenegger can capture more independents than Bustamante can capture the disaffected Davis supporters who have little reason to even show up.

Counting on the conservatives in California to get their act together may be a fool's errand.

[deport]

Field Poll in detail

 
Table 1

First choice preferences to replace Davis as 
Governor should Davis be recalled (among likely voters)

Statewide
Cruz Bustamante (D)      	   25%
Arnold Schwarzenegger (R)	   22
Tom McClintock (R)		   9	
Bill Simon (D) 			   8
Peter Ueberroth (R) 		   5
Arianna Huffington (I) 		   4
Peter Miguel Camejo (G)	           2
Larry Flynt (D)			   1
Others 				   5*
None				   5
Undecided 			  14
* No other eligible candidate receives more than ½ of 1% of voter preferences.
(D) denotes Democrat (I) denotes Independent
(R) denotes Republican (G) denotes Green Party

Table 2

First choice preferences to replace Davis as Governor – by subgroup 
(among likely voters)
                      Busta-  Schwarze-  Mc-          Simon    Others     None/Und
                      mante   negger      Clintock

Party registration
(.45) Democrats        48%      9             2         2        18        21
(.40) Republicans      4%      36             19       17        8         16
(.15) Non-             14%     27             3        1         29        26
partisans/others*
* Small sample base.

Political ideology
(.32) Conservative      3%      34            21       18         8         16
(.44) Middle-road       29%     23            4        5          13        26
(.24) Liberal           48%      6           **       **          32       14
** Less than ½ of 1%.

[KellyAdmirer]

Arnold is running left and Bustamente is running right because that is how elections are won. Who came up with that strategy?

Californian Richard Nixon.

But the Californian conservatives can't follow that good advice from their own native son, so yet another election looks to go down the drain for them.

[DavidBrown]

Since Arnold's support is evaportating, will you tell him to drop out when he comes in 3rd place in the next Field Poll? Or will you continue to spout your drivel about how he's the only one who can win and McClintock--who's probably tied with Arnold now*--should drop out.

*Remember, this poll was taken before Arnold started talking about raising taxes, and appointing liberal Democrats to his campaign. He's most likely almost in 3rd place now.

[Snerfling]

whether Schwarzenegger can capture more independents/democrats than Bustamante. Counting on the conservatives in California to get their act together may be a fool's errand.

Bingo. Dang DG, you show your LA roots too well. Arnie is running the same race Dick ran in LA years ago - as a conservative Dem, even if he nominally has an R behind his name.

This race is going to between hard Dems voting for Busta, centrist Dems/Repubs voting for Arnie, and hard Repubs voting for Tom/Bill. Arnie doesn't need Tom/Bill's 15% - he needs the Dem's 45% - and that has to come out of Busta's hide.

Jut wait until the TV ads start appearing. Who's gonna be pitching Arnie? All the CC pubbies and Hwood/LA execs/celebs (Lear, Broad, et al) that's who - the same exact thing that happened in LA under Riordin.

[Dog Gone]

Successful politicans put together the votes they need from the constituencies of the likely voters. Tom DeLay has no problem getting re-elected since his constituents are 65% GOP in rightwing Texas.

California GOP candidates have no such luxury on the statewide level, which is why they are getting their butts handed to them in statewide elections.

A conservative GOP candidate has very little chance in a statewide election with average turnout. The voter registration shows why. Additionally, the demographics give little hope for that turning around anytime soon.

So what are conservative Republicans in California to do? They can hope for the fluke election result, something which could be conceivable in a recall election, or they can compromise, putting party before ideology. The least viable strategy is to stick with their ideologues in statewide elections.

I suspect they'll chose the latter strategy, and the only question will be whether Arnie can get the support from those who otherwise would never vote R.

[Muleteam1]

The truth is that the reason Republicans are pro-gun is because it would otherwise be a crime to shoot themselves in the foot every chance they get.

Muleteam1

[MightyMouseToSaveThe Day]

For such an 'obvious solution', how could you have come to the wrong conclusion? Unite behind a candidate who has little name recognition and less money than name recognition, but expect him to pull a miracle with less than 2 months to go? Surely you joke.

[FairOpinion]

We already had a conservative running against a universally hated Democrat, when Simon ran against Davis in November.

We already know how that turned out.

Bustamante againt Mcclintock will have the same end result, except Mcclintock would lose by a much larger margin.

"Those who ignore the lessons of history, are bound to repeat it" over and over and over again: The conservatives keep giving us more and more liberal, leftist politicians in California.

[massadvj]

The conservatives keep giving us more and more liberal, leftist politicians in California.

The state's already a de facto third world country. Bustamonte will make an excellent dictator. I say let him win and then the peasants will be out with pitchforks when the state goes completely down the tubes.

Nothing can be solved in California until the liberal legislature is out of there, anyway.

[Amerigomag]

Nothing can be solved in California until the liberal legislature is out of there

Amen!

[Sabertooth]

"Those who ignore the lessons of history, are bound to repeat it" over and over and over again: The conservatives keep giving us more and more liberal, leftist politicians in California.

You've once again grossly misrepresented the History of the last CA Gubernatorial election, thereby reinforcing your learning of the wrong lesson.

Bill Jones was the CA Secretary of State, the only GOP statwide office holder after the 1998 debacle in California. He was the logical choice for the Republican Gubernatorial nomination in 2002, in a small field, but for one thing...

He'd had the nerve to support John McCain in the 2000 primary against George W. Bush. The Dynasty doesn't take kindly to that kind of thing, and the Bushes always get their payback... even at the expense of California, if necessary. That's why Bush and Rove threw their lot with Riordan and shanked the Jones campaign.

Riordan couldn't win in CA against Davis; he couldn't even win the nomination.

During the 2002 campaign, the hapless Simon wasn't even allowed to address the issues that matter to Californians, while being saddled by the RNC with Bush crony Gerry Parski, who came through too little too late with fundraising (his alleged forte) to help Simon.

To continue to insist that Simon last because he is a conservative ignores both his ineptnes and the fact that he ran a hamstrung, nonconservative, RNC-inspired sham of a campaign.

You also ignore that RNC strategies have failed GOP candidates in California, whether the candidate was moderate or conservative, in Presidential, Senatorial, and Gubernatorial campaigns since 1994.

[TheDon]

The candidates have confused a general election for a primary election, thanks again Cali GOP!