Bush in Deep Doo-Doo -- Not!

American Spectator ^ | 08/08/03 | David Hogberg

[Pokey78]

Increasingly, the conventional wisdom among the press is the President Bush's re-election prospects are in trouble.

After what can only be described as a terrible summer (thus far) for the Bush administration, CNN crowed that "in the latest TIME/CNN poll, Bush's job approval rating has dropped to 55%, where it stood before 9/11." Dan Balz of the Washington Post remarked that Bush's optimism "belied the challenges that have confronted his administration in the past month and the political toll they have begun to take on his presidency." Bill O'Reilly jumped on the bandwagon, warning that "just 48 percent would vote for Mr. Bush today, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll." This led the New York Times to confidently editorialize that the reasons for the Iraq invasion "look increasingly suspect," and on the economy "Mr. Bush mimics his father's out-of-touch performance of 1992."

Undoubtedly June and July were not kind to the Bushies. From Uraniumgate, to soldiers dying in Iraq, to a mangled prescription drug benefit for Medicare, to revised deficit numbers, the summer would have been a total loss were Uday and Qusay not now fertilizing daffodils, or whatever they grow in the Iraqi desert. Surely the Bush administration bears some of the blame: In the Weekly Standard, Fred Barnes makes a pretty persuasive case that the administration bungled the Unraniumgate matter, and it also appears that the administration prepared for the wrong problems in a post-war Iraq. Further, Bush's signaling that he would sign any Medicare drug bill only encouraged the Congressional big-spenders to dig in their heels.

This has caused the Democrats to smell blood in the water. Everyone from Bob Graham to Joe Biden has piled on, and Howard Dean has ratcheted up his anti-Bush rhetoric to rising approval among the party faithful. It looks so good that some are even speculating that Al Gore may enter the race. Meanwhile, Republicans are getting nervous. According to Ron Fourier of the Associated Press, "For the first time since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, rank-and-file Republicans say they are worried about President Bush's re-election chances based on the feeble economy, the rising death toll in Iraq and questions about his credibility."

Here's some advice: Democrats, get your nostrils checked. Republicans, take a chill pill. As for the press, well, who knows what would help them? The fact of the matter is that those pressing the Bush-is-in-trouble line are hyping a minor drop in the polls, ignoring good news, and have no vision of the not-too-distant future.

First off, the poll O'Reilly referred to, which has Bush beating a generic Democrat 48-40%, is largely meaningless. In such polls respondents often project their hopes and desires for an ideal candidate onto the generic candidate. What matters is how Bush matches up against actual candidates. Among all the routinely mentioned candidates, he fares worst against Hillary Clinton, and he still beats her 50-41%. Howard Dean? Bush's worst showing against him is 53-38%.

While Bush's job approval ratings have dropped lately, most polls still show an approval rating in the mid to high 50s. What's more instructive is to compare Bush's ratings among the polls before and after the run of bad news. Of the seven polls tracked on Polling Report, Bush had an average approval rating in late May and early June of 62%; by late July it was 56%. In other words, after nearly two months of non-stop bad press, the approval ratings dropped by only 6 points. Most politicians probably wish their approval ratings would drop so far after such lousy media coverage.

Lost in the din are various snippets of good news. First, the economy appears poised for a strong recovery. Second quarter GDP growth was better than expected, and many companies are reporting much better than expected profits. The jobs picture is still dark, but employment is always a lagging indicator. And if companies continue to post profits, they will start hiring sooner rather than later. Also lost in the din is that coalition soldiers are conducting very successful operations against the Ba'athists running a guerrilla war in Iraq. As these continue, the Iraqi situation will improve and our soldiers will be safer. Eventually, the public will notice.

Finally, two major developments have a better than even chance of occurring before the year is out: the capture of Saddam Hussein and the discovery of evidence of weapons of mass destruction. If the death of Uday and Qusay was big news, the taking down of Saddam will be enormous, giving President Bush a big boost in the polls. Democrats should be worried, for our troops are closing in. On the WMD front, David Kay, who is heading the search, recently said that "solid evidence is being produced," on Hussein's weapons program. From the beginning Democrats jumped the gun on the inability to find WMDs in Iraq. Hussein and his stooges had 10 years of practice on hiding WMDs; it was unreasonable to expect that our forces would discover them right away. As the search unfolds, we will likely discover evidence of WMDs. When we do, not only will Bush get a big boost in the polls, his Democratic and liberal critics will look foolish.

Both the Democrats' glee and the Republicans' nervousness are premature. After two months of bad news a clear majority of Americans still approves of the job our President is doing. Worse for the Democrats, the worst for Bush is likely past.


David Hogberg is a research analyst at the Public Interest Institute, an Iowa-based think tank. He also hosts his own website, Cornfield Commentary.

[Lady In Blue]

ping

[swilhelm73]

What is certain is the Democrat Party has been using its media assets to go after the President full bore, with no worries about how the complete lack of objectivity, even by the press's pathetic standards, will effect them in the long term.

It seems to me the media has done all it can and hardly landed a blow...dooming the Dems in 2004. Starting this early on the scandal machine will probably give the public as a whole a greater and greater resistance to media generated leftist agitprop that will come up more and more as we get closer to the election.

[Cold Heat]

This is the tenth time I have heard the "vulnerable" word today. must be the talking point for the weekend shows.

Even the fink David Gergen said it.

[paul51]

Finally, two major developments have a better than even chance of occurring before the year is out: the capture of Saddam Hussein and the discovery of evidence of weapons of mass destruction.

Does anyone remember OBL? There can be no question that the hunt is intense and ongoing even though it's not in the news everyday. Each day that goes by brings us closer to getting him.

[Yardstick]

What strikes me is how little effort the administration seems to have put into countering all the bad news, and still the Prez's numbers have dropped only modestly. The press and the Dems are pouring it on with all they've got and the administration has hardly broken a sweat.

[ladyinred]

This is the tenth time I have heard the "vulnerable" word today. must be the talking point for the weekend shows.

I was thinking the same thing. This is the latest talking point memo obviously.

The media is hitting and hitting and hitting, and then acting like they are so surprised that his ratings are down.
They site that he deceived the American people about the reasons for the war on Iraq as if that were now fact. They have gone from his speech line about the Brits intelligence reporting that Saddam bought uranium being untrue, to Bush flat out lied.

They are the deceivers and liars, and they continue to get away with it over and over again. A good example is the election of 2000 where the entire world watched as democrat operatives attempted to steal the election for Algore right before our eyes. That has been turned around to be that Bush stole the election, and is believed as fact all over the world.

[america-rules]

Because they know the economy is going to be flying high for the next couple of yesrs because of the low interest rates and the tax cuts haven't kicked in yet. The tax cuts should count for 500K to 1 million jobs plus all the big retailers are reporting a huge increase in sales !

[Judith Anne]

That probably reflects the vast yawn that the ordinary American feels about the dem agenda. It's boring, nagging, hair-splitting and nasty, put forward by mostly sleazy politicians with little charm and it sounds expensive to regular folks, and it's divisive, too.

I think people are sick of it. Hard to get worked up about the latest aging unpoplular star bashing the President, yet again. I think most people just feel the dims should shut up already. They're tired of changing high school team names to be PC, they're tired of being told they can't hear Christmas carols at a school concert, they want the 10 commandments to stay in the parks, they don't want pedophiles running the scouts, they think the courts have gone crazy, they don't want to pay for fat poor people to sue their state for orthodontia...

Americans want our institutions--flag, home, church, family--left undisturbed. We want our kids in scouting to learn the same things we learned--camping, first aid, projects; we want our schools to teach our kids to read well, write well, speak properly and do basic math. We want our flag honored throughout the world and at home. We want to honor those who serve our country.

We want to own our own property and do with it what we want--whether it's cutting down our own trees or letting people smoke undisturbed. We want to be able to pay a reasonable tax without resentment to help our country be strong--we're sick of funding social and environmental regulators who strangle the very businesses that provide the jobs that make the huge, strong, vital, ordinary, amazing middle class the envy of the world...We're tired of the dim agenda that wants to teach our sons to marry each other, our daughters to kill their young, our clergy to spit on our altars...

/Rant off...

[Yardstick]

Agreed on all points!

[Judith Anne]

Well, thanks...I'm a so sick of hearing screaming leftist pundits (in print or on the news) that I just imagine other people probably are too.

[ETERNAL WARMING]

He is in trouble, and denying it won't make it go away. Let's face it, Conservative he isn't. Wake up before it's too late and a Democrat is elected.

[Concerned]

JUDITH ANNE WROTE: "That probably reflects the vast yawn that the ordinary American feels about the dem agenda. It's boring, nagging, hair-splitting and nasty, put forward by mostly sleazy politicians with little charm and it sounds expensive to regular folks, and it's divisive, too."

JUDITH ANNE ADDED: "I think people are sick of it. Hard to get worked up about the latest aging unpoplular star bashing the President, yet again. I think most people just feel the dims should shut up already. They're tired of changing high school team names to be PC, they're tired of being told they can't hear Christmas carols at a school concert, they want the 10 commandments to stay in the parks, they don't want pedophiles running the scouts, they think the courts have gone crazy, they don't want to pay for fat poor people to sue their state for orthodontia..."

JUDITH ANNE ADDED: "Americans want our institutions--flag, home, church, family--left undisturbed. We want our kids in scouting to learn the same things we learned--camping, first aid, projects; we want our schools to teach our kids to read well, write well, speak properly and do basic math. We want our flag honored throughout the world and at home. We want to honor those who serve our country."

JUDITH ANNE ADDED: "We want to own our own property and do with it what we want--whether it's cutting down our own trees or letting people smoke undisturbed. We want to be able to pay a reasonable tax without resentment to help our country be strong--we're sick of funding social and environmental regulators who strangle the very businesses that provide the jobs that make the huge, strong, vital, ordinary, amazing middle class the envy of the world...We're tired of the dim agenda that wants to teach our sons to marry each other, our daughters to kill their young, our clergy to spit on our altars..."

JUDITH ANNE ADDED: "/Rant off..."

You stated my sentiments EXACTLY. Can I/we quote you?

[Judith Anne]

Sure.

[MattAMiller]

That probably reflects the vast yawn that the ordinary American feels about the dem agenda. It's boring, nagging, hair-splitting and nasty, put forward by mostly sleazy politicians with little charm and it sounds expensive to regular folks, and it's divisive, too.

Bingo. They sound melodramatic and mechanical at the same time. They all say the same thing and it's all emotion, no real argument or anything of interest to anybody who doens't laready hate Bush.

[oreolady]

I agree with your views completely, everyone I talk to wants these things, too, except the CNN-impaired, but I cannot understand why(and we are guilty, too, not making our voices heard, or just a small percentage of those who write or call congresscritters).

We or the Republican party CANNOT get the message of truth out there. I think they are so patterened in using rhetoric words, and future plans, the language is just as it has always been.
Anyone in politics these days has to come up with a game plan to find and broadcast the truth.

Surely there must be modern techniques to do this, besides t.v. ads or colorful glowing campaign mailers.
I do believe, though, that if more voices were heard to ALL the congresspeople that they wouldn't get by with quite so much monkey business, more media ads showing documented PROOF when the dems lies are put out.


Remember the Ross Perot charts? You have to admit they caught people's attention, and were somewhat sucessful, I always say a picture is worth a thousand words.
Messages also have to be SIMPLE, straighforward.
I try to be that way when talking to the "dark side".

[thepizzalady]

Have you been reading my mind? My thoughts exactly.

I used to be a democrat (born and raised). But then, I GREW UP! I actually started paying attention to politicians and realized democrats (the politicians)lie a lot, about everything, all the time, and loudly (okay, they are obnoxious) The average dem citizen just hasn’t got a clue, and only pays attention to elections about three days before.
Also there was the total embarrassment of being linked in any why with anything or anyone named clinton.

[Judith Anne]

Well, we have the internet and Free Republic. I actually believe that we make a difference, here.

[Judith Anne]

No need to read minds; the dems have been trying to forcefeed their idea of utopia for plenty long enough--people are really becoming immune to it. Questions are being asked, in the heartland. Middle America is waking up, patriotism is afoot, we are not alone. I think change, a basic change toward traditional United States of America values is in the air...

We here on FR aren't the only ones sick of the socialist push--talk to anyone...

[11B3]

Why doesn't the GOP take off the gloves and point out the Rats malfeasance on TV ads in ways that anyone can understand? It should be quite simple. Just replay the Rats take on any given issue - quote them on the air - and then ask the American public if that is how they remember what actually happened. The Ankle's book is a perfect example, and she has provided more ammunition to use against her than she could ever imagine - IF the GOP finally figures out that the Rats don't fight by the rules. We must stop the revision of history, along with the erosion of our sovereignty and the complete decay of our morality.

The Rats MUST be openly referred to as "Socialists" - especially since so many of them do indeed belong to the Democratic Socialists of America (subchapter of the Communist International). Once that linkage is made in the minds of the voters, the Rats are finished.