Poll shows good odds for Specter re-election bid

Pittsburgh Post Gazette ^ | Afternoon - Thursday, August 07, 2003 | The Associated Press

[pittsburgh gop guy]

Poll shows good odds for Specter re-election bid

Thursday, August 07, 2003

The Associated Press

HARRISBURG, Pa. -- Fifteen months before the 2004 election, Republican U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter is favored nearly 2-1 over prospective Democratic challenger U.S. Rep. Joseph Hoeffel, according to poll results released today.

In a hypothetical two-way race, Specter would win 53 percent of the vote and Hoeffel would get 29 percent, the survey by the Connecticut-based Quinnipiac University Polling Institute showed.

Specter's approval rating dipped slightly to 57 percent, compared to 60 percent in a similar poll in February, but the institute's assistant director, Clay F. Richard, dismissed the change as "the kind of ups and downs that politicians go through."

The telephone poll of 1,037 registered Pennsylvania voters was conducted between July 30 and Monday. It carries a sampling error margin of plus or minus three percentage points.

Specter, who is seeking his fifth six-year term, faces a challenge for the Republican nomination in the April 27 primary from conservative U.S. Rep. Pat Toomey, who faces an uphill fight to boost his name recognition. So far, Toomey has raised $1.5 million for his campaign, compared to Specter's $8.6 million.

The poll did not assess the Specter-Toomey race. Eight percent of the respondents said they have a favorable opinion of Toomey, and 78 percent said they did not know enough about him to form an opinion.

Hoeffel did not fare much better in the poll -- 12 percent viewed him favorably, while 72 percent said they had not heard enough about him -- and he faces his own race in the Democratic primary. His opponent is Charlie Crystle, a 36-year-old political newcomer and software developer from Lancaster who has vowed to spend up to $1 million of his own money on the campaign.

Pennsylvania's junior senator, Sen. Rick Santorum, received a 56 percent approval rating in the poll, while 60 percent of the respondents said they approve of President Bush's performance.

[pittsburgh gop guy]

Guys - I think Specter's #'s are pretty good. Toomey will give him a good fight, but I don't see Arlen losing in the primary, or in the general next year. Trust me, I hope Toomey wins it all - but I just don't see it happening.

[AuH2ORepublican]

They probably polled registered voters. If Specter is way ahead of Toomey among likely Republican primary voters 3 months before the primary, then I'll be worried. I think Specter is going to have a really tough time beating Toomey in a low-turnout primary.

[Kuksool]

Toomey vs. Specter Update

[aynrandfreak]

It's early yet.

[Kuksool]

{Bush 60% Approval in PA}

21 electoral votes for Bush in 2004

{57% Approval for Specter. 56% Approval for Santorum}

So much for the media hype about Santorum being too extreme for PA.

[JohnnyZ]

Trust me, I hope Toomey wins it all - but I just don't see it happening.

I agree. For Toomey to win he would need a unified conservative front and a lot of enthusiasm for his candidacy. I don't think the excitement level is there.

[smokeyb]

"The telephone poll of 1,037 registered Pennsylvania voters was conducted between July 30 and Monday. It carries a sampling error margin of plus or minus three percentage points."

Now there's a good sampling of voters !

[oldironsides]

I know several GOP committee people in very strong GOP territory that will not be handing out anything for Specter. Specter knows it.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"21 electoral votes for Bush in 2004"

---

I think Bush will get between 55%-58% in the traditionally Republican Philly suburbs because of national security issues (they had swung to the RATs in the 1990s because of abortion and guns), and also carry the Western PA and other areas that are traditionally Democrat but that swunf to Bush in 2000 because they are socially conservative. Bush won't do as well as Reagan did in the Philly suburbs, but he should do even better than Reagan in Western PA, for an overall percentage of 56% in PA.

[CPT Clay]

When is the Pa. primary?

[Reagan is King]

Bleh!

[Kuksool]

BTTT

[Impy]

Good to see Hoeffel polling so low even if it's versus Spector.

[Rebellans]

Not only is Specter a RINO, he's an old, ailing RINO. If he wins and doesn't make it through his next term, Gov. Rendell (D) will appoint his replacement.

Go Toomey!

[Kuksool]

The PA primary is scheduled to take place on April 27, 2004.

[CPT Clay]

27APR.....Thanks

[ForOurFuture]

PoliticsPA.com has assembled a "tally board" of who the who's who in in the PA GOP is supporting. It doesn't look good for Toomey.

http://www.politicspa.com/FEATURES/tallyboard.htm

[GeneralHavoc]

Toomey can certainly win this thing. Once the ads start running and it becomes clear Pat is a real conservative and not a Specter RINO, Arlen will be in trouble.