Poll is big uh-oh for Gephardt (Dean leads Gephardt in Iowa)

The Des Moines Register ^ | 8/3/03 | David Yepsen

[LdSentinal]

Is Howard Dean on his way to the Democratic presidential nomination? Could be. Today's Iowa Poll of Democratic caucus-goers shows the former Vermont governor has moved into first place in Iowa, knocking Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt from that long-held perch.

[LdSentinal]

Poll Results:

Howard Dean: 23%
Richard Gephardt: 21%
John Kerry: 14%
Joseph Lieberman: 10%
John Edwards: 5%
Dennis Kucinich: 4%
Carol Moseley Braun: 1%
Bob Graham: 1%

If Gephardt loses this, he's gone.

[rwfromkansas]

He may be peaking too early, as the article pointed out. I am not sure when the caucus is, but it sure won't be for awhile.

[LdSentinal]

He could be peaking early with him on the cover of both Time and Newsweek, but Dean strikes a chord with the "John Walker Lindh" type of Democrats. He'll be around.

Also, Sharpton scores a 1% in that poll.

[Ford Fairlane]

I'm not surprised

First, Iowegians hate Missourrians, and Misourrians hate Iowegians

Second, Dems in Iowa are more liberal than almost anywhere else in the country, witht he possible exception of Boston, Berkely, & Chicago

[RandyRep]

Just once I would like to see a candidate say "WGASA" to Iowa, New Hampshire, and the other small states, and concentrate on winning in California, New York, Illinois, Ohio, Florida, Texas, etc. It seems that all the media attention in Iowa and NH give candidates so much exposure, and they shell out so much money early, then when they lose (often by percentage points), they bow out.

Of course, being a Californian, I'd like to cast a meaningful vote in a primary!

BTW, WGASA = "Who Gives a Sh!t Anyway" Wgasa is also the name of the monorail at the San Diego Zoo Wild Animal Park -- they spent 18 hours debating names, and someone spouts "Wgasa". It sounds African and seems to be a distinctive name for the monorail system, and then they ask the guy what it means - and he tells them. True story.

[KQQL]

Dean as a RAT nominee will be very good for W and the GOP
in 2004..


GO DEAN........LOL..........

[rwfromkansas]

Please, the big states are all that matter past primary days.

Flyover country is completely passed over in between trips to the coasts. Of course, a Dem wouldn't win here anyway, but neither the Republicans or Dems appear to give a crap about anything but the big states past primary days.

[EternalVigilance]

First, Iowegians hate Missourrians, and Misourrians hate Iowegians

The old joke in the northern parts of Iowa is that if you gave the bottom couple of tiers of counties in Iowa to Missouri, it would increase the IQs of both states...

My apologies to Missourians and southern Iowans. ;-)

[Ford Fairlane]

if you gave the bottom couple of tiers of counties in Iowa to Missouri, it would increase the IQs of both states

But then the women in Misourri would get uglier than they already are...

[EternalVigilance]

Heh heh...

[dfwgator]

Big deal, judging candidates by polls at this juncture is like predicting who will win the Super Bowl based on pre-season records. At this point in 1991, had anyone even heard of Bill Clinton (other than that long-winded 1988 DNC speech?)

[Biblebelter]

Sitting members of the House or Senate have a hard time getting the nomination because they are forced to defend their participation in what thoughtful Americans see as the destruction of the republic. Those directly under Dean in the poll have spent too much time holding office courting lobbyists, fat cats, or political hacks and have no ability in connecting with real people who may be extremtists, moderates, or simply turned off by politics as usual. Dean is at least connecting with the extreme crowd. Recent history indicates governorships or the vice-presidency is the best path to the nomination.

[Consort]

One of them will likely go all the way to VP nomoination.

[Consort]

nomoination = nomination.

[dfwgator]

I think Gephardt will be the nominee. He is the best politician of the lot, and he (like Clinton) can convince moderates he is one of them, while being tolerable to the more extreme parts of the party. Lieberman is the other one who can do that, but he won't have the support among Blacks that Gephardt will have. Dean is like Pat Buchanan was for the GOP, he appealed to the extreme wing of the party, he may pull of a win or two, but he will eventually fade.

[Brandon]

One thing not mentioned by this article is that in Iowa (I live here, so I know what I'm talking about) organization is vastly more important than in most states, because Iowa holds a caucus, not a primary. This is not a matter of getting your people to show up at the polls at a time of their convenience between 7 a.m. and 9 a.m. for 15 minutes. This is a matter of convincing them to turn out on a (probably cold and snowy) January night, and sit in a room with a bunch of strangers for 2-3 hours while all sorts of business not related to the presidential race is debated and voted on.

A far more significant poll than one of registered or likely voters would be a poll of Democratic Party County Chairmen and Central Committee members. They are the ones who will run the caucuses, they are the ones who have the organizations in place to get people to show up. My guess would be that Gephardt has the inside track with those people, but I don't know. It'll be interesting to see how it turns out.

[jagrmeister]

Dean has the nomination locked up, barring some historical smear campaign from Kerry. He leads in Iowa, in New Hampshire (depending on which poll you're using), he's winning even in large states like CA, and he raised the most amount of money in 2Q 2003. He has a solid campaign staff and extremely fanatical volunteers. I don't see him peaking, only building on his advantage. What held Dean back before was the perception that he was running a niche campaign. That's no longer the perception. As more people line up behind him, undecideds often decide to go with the front-runner. We all know Democrats live in an echo chamber, and as Dean's support grows, they will convince themselves and other Democrats that Dean can actually win the general election. Dean's support will grow further among Democrat ranks from that spreading delusion. Part of my belief that Dean will be the nominee is that he's very charismatic- the more people see of him, the more they like him. Like him or not, he connects with people. The rest of the Democrat field are duds. I welcome a Dean nomination- although we should be prepared for a charismatic opponent with a leftist Media that will characterize Dean as a "centrist" who balanced budgets for a decade.

[Coop]

For example, I ran into a guy at a Dean rally recently who told me he was a Republican and had never been to a Democratic caucus but was going to re-register to caucus for Dean.

Tee hee hee.

I agree, if Gephardt loses Iowa, he's toast. But as of now I still think he'll take Iowa.

[Coop]

For example, I ran into a guy at a Dean rally recently who told me he was a Republican and had never been to a Democratic caucus but was going to re-register to caucus for Dean.

Tee hee hee.

I agree, if Gephardt loses Iowa, he's toast. But as of now I still think he'll take Iowa.

[Coop]

My guess would be that Gephardt has the inside track with those people

I agree.