Posted on 07/30/2003 4:54:10 AM PDT by onevoter
Dems find hope in Bush polls By Susan Page, USA TODAY WASHINGTON — President Bush might seem poised for easy re-election, given his healthy 58% job-approval rating in the latest USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup polls. But another number from the surveys conducted over the past two weekends is giving Democrats hope and Republicans heartburn. Asked who they're likely to vote for in 2004, 47% said Bush and 41% the Democratic nominee, whoever that turns out to be.
That's not a commanding lead, and it puts Bush's support below 50%, a threshold that traditionally divides safe incumbents from those who are vulnerable. "It's a sign that this thing's not done," political analyst Charles Cook says.
Among recent presidents, Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan didn't show any significant difference between job approval and re-election support, which is one reason job approval is seen as a reliable shorthand for a president's political standing. At this point in his first term, Clinton's job approval was 49%, his re-election support 46%. For Reagan, both were 44%.
But in this way, as in others, Bush is following in his father's footsteps. At this point, the elder Bush's job-approval rating was 74% in the wake of the 1991 Persian Gulf War, but his re-election support was nearly 20 points lower, at 55%.
Why the disparity?
Both Bushes have benefited from the public's inclination to rally around the president when the nation is facing threats from abroad. Amid the conflict in Iraq and the campaign against terrorism, the current president's approval is being boosted by some Americans who are unlikely to vote for him.
In the polls, combined to provide a larger sample, 30% of liberals said they approved of the job Bush was doing, a much higher proportion of those voters than he's likely to carry. Blacks are the major demographic group least likely to vote for Bush, but roughly one in four approved of the job he's doing.
Other groups that contributed to the disparity in the numbers include some voters who are seen as up for grabs in 2004, among them moderates and people younger than 30.
Matthew Dowd, a senior Bush strategist, calls the president's job-approval rating "great" and says his re-election support isn't a concern. In recent years, with a more polarized electorate, most high-profile incumbents have seen their support slip below 50%, he says. He argues that the threshold signaling trouble now is closer to 40%.
By Election Day, voters will be choosing between Bush and a particular Democrat. That will give Republicans a specific target, but it also will give Democrats a chance to speak with a single voice.
At the moment, the polls show a race that's still up in the air. "The opening is there," Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg says. "It is incumbent on us to figure out how to take advantage of it."
So if Clinton had it so easy in 96 and his poll numbers were lower, where is the opportunity for Democrats with Bush? It looks like Bush has 1% more in the poll than Clinton at the same time.
Exactly, the arguement that Bush is in "trouble" is refuted by their own evidence.
There is only one line this story is trying to push, the misleading headline.
-Good job approval ratings
-Strong leadership ratings, which also happens to be the main consideration of most voters in Presidential polls
-A 14-vote electoral advantage over 2000 thanks to redistricting
-Major bucks in the bank, to be spent against whatever opponent survives, with depleted campaign funds, a bruising primary
-A powerful, proven network of supporters throughout the land
-The bully pulpit of the White House
To me the biggest threat to Dubya isn't what the Dems and libs attempt, but it's potential erosion of his base support. Right now he'd win going away, thanks to strong GOP and conservative support, but if he chooses a few more unorthodox (Dem-like) platforms between now and Nov 04...
If the democrats really did find hope they'd want to tax it.
I've a stash of bottled air just in case the Leftist loons ever get really inspired.
I will leave it at that.
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