Jobless claims fall sharply - Data seen as a positive sign for economic recovery

MSNBC ^ | 7/24/03 | AP

[Steven W.]

WASHINGTON, July 24 — The number of American workers signing up for jobless benefits plunged last week to the lowest level in five months, a fresh dose of good news for the economy’s revival.

FOR THE WORK WEEK ending July 19, new applications for unemployment insurance dropped by a seasonally adjusted 29,000 to 386,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. It marked the second week in a row that claims went down and represented the first time since the week ending Feb. 8 that claims dipped below 400,000, a level associated with a weak job market.

The claims figures were better than economists were expecting; they were forecasting claims to rise slightly.

Although claims tend to swing widely in July, distorted by temporary plant closings, other figures in the report also suggested that the pace of layoffs is stabilizing.

The more stable, four-week moving average of jobless claims fell by a solid 5,500 last week to 419,250, the lowest level since the work week ending March 8.

And the number of unemployed Americans collecting jobless benefits for more than a week declined by 24,000 to a three-month low of 3.6 million for the work week ending July 12, the most recent period for which that information is available.

[Steven W.]

Sometimes I'm left to wonder if the DemoncRATs, bears and goldbugs, or anybody else with a vested interest in seeing the country and US economy fail are simply not paying attention or whether they're totally adverse to ever recognizing anything that in any way possibly resembles or reflects good news. Well, on days like today, when there's such a wealth of incredible good news on the economy out, so much so that the bond / treasury market takes it on the chin, once again, and the likes of Willie Brown or the myriads of goldbugs and Puplava's disciples can't bring themselves to post any of the reports, for the whole day, even, one apparently needn't wonder any longer ;)

[JNB]

I guess the news was not all that good, seeing how the market tanked in the last hour. As for bonds taking it on the chin, as I saked you in a previous post, do you know t he full rammifications of rising bond yeilds are? Can we say the end of the re-fi boom?

[OldFriend]

Explanation for market drop........992 was the sell number for many firms.

I wish we could have the names of those firms........see who is wishing for a return to the corruption of Rubin and the good old days where the little guy got fleeced and the rest of them cashed in.

[vannrox]

.


The REAL reason why the unemployment claims numbers dropped sharply:

It is a yearly event that major companies undergo plant shutdowns in early July, usually for two weeks. The masses of blue collar workers all apply for unemployment compensation. Even though they have a one week waiting period, they never-the-less get one week of unemployment.

This happens every year, and both parties exploit this fact. Either knowingly or unknowingly.

The truth is that the unemployment numbers are still rather high, and p[eriodic fluxuations that normally occur have and do occur. The largest segment of the unemployed population are the individuals in the 35 to 50 age range, with the majority being laid off with benefits exhaused and job prospects scarse. Most are college educated and involved in the hard sciences.

Further information on the makeup and characteristics of the unemployment situation is easy. Just go to the Department of Employment and Training and ask.


.

[Coop]

I guess the news was not all that good, seeing how the market tanked in the last hour.

I read an article on Yahoo blaming the sell-off profit taking on three rumors/stories floating on the floor:

-President Bush's motorcade being "buzzed" by an unauthorized aircraft
-A large sell order from Smith Barney on S&P futures
-A rumor that they're going to raise the terror alert level tonight

[norwaypinesavage]

"I guess the news was not all that good, seeing how the market tanked in the last hour.... Can we say the (it's the)end of the re-fi boom?"

Using one hour of market activity as an indicator of anything is quite simplistic. There are far more factors than one activity report several hours earlier that deermines market performance (Unless, of course, you are only looking for bad news).

As for a re-fi boom, what is a re-fi boom? I realize that you are refering to an increase in refinancing when interest rates are low, but why is that a boom? What is booming? Who, other than the refinacncee is benefiting?

[Servant of the Nine]

It is a yearly event that major companies undergo plant shutdowns in early July, usually for two weeks. The masses of blue collar workers all apply for unemployment compensation. Even though they have a one week waiting period, they never-the-less get one week of unemployment.

These numbers have already been seasonally adjusted for that.

SO9

[IronJack]

The doomsayers will still manage to either ignore this or spin it to the negative. This entire recession is a fiction created and sustained by the Left to discredit a Republican administration. Think "It's the economy, stupid" reprised.

[JNB]

If you have to ask the question "Who is being helped by the re-fi boom", then you have no business debating on threads about the economy.

To make a long story short, ref-fis have almost single handedly given consumers the fuel to keep on spending at close to full blast in the last 2 years, and reduce their credit card debts, and with a steady downturn in rates from Fall of 2000 to last month, consumers have been able to re-fi multiple times.

[norwaypinesavage]

"ref-fis have almost single handedly given consumers the fuel to keep on spending at close to full blast in the last 2 years"
Dream on.

[JNB]

Do you have any evidence to support your claim? Do you anything about economics? Lots of support on the role Re-Fis have been in the economy for the last 2 years, yet your replay is "Dream On". Word of advice, get beyond Limbaugh and the WSJ editorial page.

[norwaypinesavage]

"ref-fis have almost single handedly given consumers the fuel to keep on spending at close to full blast in the last 2 years"
You write this, and then you ask me if I know anything about economics? Do the math, the benefits of refinancing mortgages are but a tiny portion of the economic picture. You better study all of the economy before you accuse others of ingorance. There is more to economics than gold.

[KCmark]

This entire recession is a fiction created and sustained by the Left ...

---

What color is the sky in your world?

[JNB]

Where did I mention gold in this post? Look, Re-fis and housing related activities have gived the economy a 2.5% boost in the GDP over the last 2 years. You do the math. The money extracted by consumers due to refis have been around $300 billion in the last two years.

[norwaypinesavage]

2.5% is hardly a "single handed" boost". You have made my point: there is a whole lot more to the economic recovery than a "re-fi boom". Refinances have been helpful, but so have: new car rebates, tax cuts, fed policy, military successes, and the end of the Clinton policies of greed and selfishness.

The economy is far more comlex than a simple minded "re-fi boom". And specifically, its not a "boom". It's simply smart consumers taking advantage of the lowest interest rates in nearly half a century. Thats a totally rational reaction to policy. As long as interest rates remain low, their impact on the economy will be positive.

[IronJack]

What color is the sky in your world?

Give me a sound economic reason this recession happened to emerge just as Bill Clinton was stepping down from his throne ...

[KCmark]

Give me a sound economic reason you think this recession is a fiction. It is no fiction the number of people I know who have been laid off, or are now severly underemployed. What caused it is a matter of argument. That it exists is not.

[norwaypinesavage]

You mentioned gold in the same post that I mentioned Limbaugh and the WSJ.

[IronJack]

A recession isn't defined by how many people you know who are laid off. "Recession" is an economic term, not a personal one. And there are few econometrics that show the United States is in a recession, your unemployed and underemployed coterie notwithstanding.

By the way, high unemployment does not a recession make.