HURRICANE WARNING FROM BAFFIN BAY TO SAN LOUIS PASS TEXAS

National Hurricane Center ^ | July 13, 2003 | James Franklin

[John H K]

TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2003

...CLAUDETTE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM PORT OCONNOR TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE U.S. BORDER.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES...505 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

THE CENTER OF CLAUDETTE CONTINUES TO MOVE ERRATICALLY...BUT CLAUDETTE IS GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE LATEST PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

SWELLS ARE APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST AND COULD CREATE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...25.4 N... 92.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[John H K]

Discussion still isn't out yet.

Interestingly there's a surprisingly large consensus of models with a storm quite similar to Claudette in the Gulf in about 4-5 days.

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[Dog Gone]

Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number 20
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on July 13, 2003

 
once again the wind center of Claudette has been pulled into the
deep convection...but this time there was a response in the
pressure field.  The most recent reconnaissance fix was 996
mb...down about 11 mb since yesterday.  Flight level winds are near
60 kt and the surface winds are estimated to be about 50 kt.  It
remains to be seen whether this is a transitory pressure fall. 
Although the recon center fix was a solid one...the feature they
are tracking still appears to be rotating around within a broader
circulation.  Therefore...fix to fix motions are going to be quite
misleading.  The overall motion of the cyclone is estimated to be
300/6.

Model guidance has been trending toward a slightly weaker ridge over
Texas and Louisiana that may cause Claudette to linger a little
longer over the Gulf...and the official forecast is a little slower
and a shade north of the previous advisory.  Each interaction of
the center with the convection to the northeast also slows the
westward progress of the cyclone.  However...the basic forecast
thinking is unchanged from previous discussions.

Most intensity guidance indicates that Claudette will gradually
strengthen over the next two days as the shear lessens slightly...
and Claudette is expected to be near hurricane strength at
landfall.

Forecaster Franklin

[Blueflag]

IR image puts the rain pattern a good bit further to the north of the center.

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNationalWide.asp?loc=usa&seg=LocalWeather&prodgrp=SatelliteImagery&product=UnitedStatesHIRES&prodnav=none

[Dog Gone]

Yes, it certainly appears that shearing is occurring. All in all, this is shaping up to be a welcome storm. The Rio Grande Valley could use the drenching, and this storm looks like it will be a minimal hurricane or less when it arrives.

[Squantos]

Ya'll stay dry and safe !

[TexasCowboy]

What is surprising to me about this storm is the barometric pressure. It's been hanging in at about 29 mb which is high for even a tropical storm.

This is something to watch for the next few days before we get it set in stone that the shoot will be July 19th.
We don't want to be in the hill country during heavy hurricane rainstorms.
No matter where this thing comes in we're going to be on the dirty side, and it depends on how fast it moves after making landfall.

[Allegra]

This is something to watch for the next few days before we get it set in stone that the shoot will be July 19th. We don't want to be in the hill country during heavy hurricane rainstorms. No matter where this thing comes in we're going to be on the dirty side, and it depends on how fast it moves after making landfall.

This morning on the news one of the local forecasters (I don't remember which...I was surfing) said that if we get wet here it would be Tuesday and Wednesday. That would probably put it in the Hill Country maybe Wednesday and Thursday?

Of course these meteorologists are all a bunch of liars anyway. :-)

[TexasCowboy]

We're probably not going to be able to make definite plans until the day after it makes landfall and we see how fast it's traveling.
Let's all stay in touch!

[rwfromkansas]

This storm is nearly stationary and will have a good chance at strengthening some more if the center just to the southwest of the convection can get more incorporated into the clouds. It has strengthened since yesterday.

It was OBVIOUS yesterday.....incredibly obvious.....that the NHC track into Mexico and the models going further south were a bunch of BS.

I am glad to see they actually shifted the track further north into Texas finally, as that is more accurate.

The convection is quite a bit further north than the center, so it is about time that they realize this is not your normal storm where you just track the center and call it good. This will have a major impact on folks a good ways up the Texas coast, far from the actual center.

[rwfromkansas]

I just hope it gets here to give us some rain and much-needed relief from the heat.

But, it probably will hed more west and not impact us up here.

[humblegunner]

Roger, standing by.

I won't start my Hurricane Conspiracy rantings...

[TexasCowboy]

"I just hope it gets here to give us some rain and much-needed relief from the heat."

I know what you mean, rw.
When I lived in West Texas I'd watch these things come in on the Gulf Coast and pray that it would last long enough to get to us.
Most of them didn't.

[Allegra]

I won't start my Hurricane Conspiracy rantings...

Judging by that graphic you just put up, it looks like we're gonna GET WET!!

Are those Kalifornia tree-sitters still polluting Memorial Park? Wonder how they'd like a dose of the "dirty side" of a hurricane?

See? You can find the good in everything!

[humblegunner]

Are those Kalifornia tree-sitters still polluting Memorial Park?

They sure are..

I wonder if "Trust" is familiar with the old Popeye phrase "Blow me down"..

[Allegra]

I wonder if "Trust" is familiar with the old Popeye phrase "Blow me down"..

Or the old Bill Clinton phrase "Blow me..."

Sorry. Couldn't resist. :)

[Atchafalaya]

Wherever it goes you will get rain. My son and I left Grand Isle, La. this AM for home in Baton Rouge. We watched as the first squall band came ashore right before we left. Lots of rain, wind gusting to about 30mph I'd say. I don't wish anyone ill, but I hope this thing goes West. They need the moisture, not us.

[Shooter 2.5]

Thanks for keeping me posted on this. I didn't know we might be in this much trouble. It's hard to visualize a bad rainy storm when it's 95 degrees and sunny.

[JustPiper]

Seems like I left Cancun just in time.

[Ditter]

It will give us rain & relief from the heat but it will also knock out our power for days or a week. NO AIR CONDITIONING!!!! AAARRRRRGGGGGGGGG! I think I hear someone calling me from New Mexico or is it from Colorado?