Trpical Storm Claudette

Paraphrased from National Weather Service

[john316]

Claudette has changed little in strength overnight and the center is now located over the extreme northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. Latest satellite imagery continues to show a rather ragged looking tropical cyclone with most of the thunderstorms still located north and east of the center. The outflow has improved somewhat to the north and east of the center even though there still appears to be some shear affecting the system from the southwest. Claudette is expected to re-emerge over the southern Gulf later this morning, at which time a slow strengthening trend will begin, especially if the shear diminishes further. There remains a great deal of uncertainty in the overall strength of Claudette prior to making landfall over south Texas as conditions are expected to become increasingly favorable for strengthening with time. We are still forecasting Claudette to become a Category One hurricane prior to making landfall, however, if the shear diminishes completely, then additional strengthening will be possible.

Claudette continues to move towards the northwest in response to a weakening ridge of high pressure located north of the storm. We expect this general motion to continue with a gradual decrease in forward speed over the next 24 hours as steering currents continue to weaken . Beyond 24 hours, we expect Claudette to make a gradual turn towards the west as high pressure re-builds across the northern Gulf. Just how soon Claudette makes this westward turn will ultimately determine how far north landfall occurs. A later turn would result in landfall farther north, perhaps along the upper Texas coast or even southwestern Louisiana. If Claudette turns westward sooner, landfall would occur farther south, over northern Mexico.

The next forecast track will be issued near 10:30am CDT this morning

[john316]

Didn't see any other threads, so I thought I'd at least get this one started.

[Support Free Republic]

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[eastforker]

In other words,they haven't a clue where this gal is headed.All gulf coast FReepers need to keep an eye on this one.

[ErnBatavia]

I'll take my earthquakes, thank you.

[john316]

yep, but it looks like it may ruin my weekend/first part of next week...(yawn)

[eastforker]

Sorta like being blindsided by a train rather than being tied to the tracks.The resulst are the same,however,you might be able to untie the knots and get the hell out of the area.

[Dog Gone]

The latest computer models continue to be all over the place on the the projected storm track.

One has it hitting Brownsville, Texas. One projects that it will hit New Orleans.

One has it dissipating entirely in a couple of days.

One has it hitting Corpus Christi, and the others put it headed generally toward the Houston area, but still offshore five days from now.

The upshot is that they don't know, and we should keep a close eye on it.

[john316]

copy that, the last numbers I looked at had 14% New Orleans, 14% Galveston & 14% Corpus Christi. If'n it comes in at either GLS or Corpus, I'm gonna get some more rain. Just as long as we don't get as much as we did w/ Allison I'll be ok.

[Dog Gone]

From the NWS:

Once Claudette moves away from Yucatan into the Gulf of Mexico...it should get better organized and re-strengthen. All the global models continue to forecast a very favorable upper-level wind environment. The intensity forecast calls for a hurricane in 48 hours.

Satellite animations suggest that Claudette may have stalled briefly...but it should resume moving toward the northwest at about 12 knots. Later...the tropical cyclone is expected to decrease in forward speed and miss the trough which is forecast to swing by the northern Gulf of Mexico. Claudette is forecast to turn toward the west once it reaches the west central Gulf of Mexico in about 3 days. This forecast is heavily based on the consensus of the GFS..NOGAPS and UK global models.

[john316]

After a nearly fatal bout with wind shear Thursday afternoon, Claudette now appears to be getting better organized this morning. Satellite indicates that thunderstorms are increasing rapidly near the center, and the outflow pattern above the storm looks to be unhindered by shear. As the center moves back over water this morning, we think that Claudette will gain strength fairly rapidly. There's a good chance that Claudette will become a hurricane within the next 24-36 hours.


Squalls to the north of the center extend out as far as 300-350 miles, but surface winds of 25 mph or higher are confined to within 200 miles northwest and northeast of the center. This means that today will most likely be the last day of good flying weather for the deepwater areas off the Louisiana coast. By Saturday morning, heavy squalls will begin moving across the Keathley Canyon through Lund deepwater areas. Squalls will probably not reach the coastal areas of Louisiana and Texas until later Saturday afternoon or Saturday night.


Our forecast track remains unchanged, but we have low confidence about the eventual landfall point. Much will depend on how quickly Claudette reorganizes this morning and how far north the center moves in the next 24-36 hours. The farther north and the faster Claudette moves today, the farther north along the Texas or Louisiana coast the landfall point will have to be adjusted. Also, we've been counting on a high pressure area building westward across the southeast U.S. in 48 hours that would begin to push Claudette on a more W-WNW track toward Texas. But if this high pressure is slow to arrive, and/or if Claudette is farther north when the high begins to exert its influence, then Claudette could make landfall as far north as the upper Texas coast or Louisiana.

[Ditter]

We sold our bay house, yea!

[Dog Gone]

I guess the good news for Louisiana and southeast Texas is that the storm will have to move fast in order to land there. That should mean that it won't have time to become a major hurricane.

However, the ground is already totally saturated in this area from heavy rains in the last week or two. Flooding would definitely occur.

[Dog Gone]

Nice timing!

[john316]

I don't know, the water temps are kinda high, she could spin up to a strong cat1 or weak cat 2. Any stronger than that and I'll be shooting my way out of Clear Lake.

[eastforker]

Time to get out the generator and get it fueled up,just in case.After Alicia we went over ten days without power.

[Quilla]

Hubby asked me to check the seas for him this morning. He's considering going fishing out of Panama City Beach this weekend and I was planning on hitting the beach. Two to three feet is forecast; however, I was told there is a seaweed problem. Apparently the water is full of it and many are complaining about a horrible smell. Anyone heard anything?

[john316]

yep sewweed is a problem arround there this time of year. When I visit Panama City Beach we usualy go as soon as the kids get out of school as to miss the mess. Have hubby check his local f'cast, but he should be ok just as long as he don't head wsw or venture too fare out. Just check radar and there are a few heavy showers to your west.

[Dog Gone]

The latest computer models for the storm track are out, and they just changed dramatically. One model takes it to Brownsville, and one still has the storm dissipating.

But the three others project it directly toward New Orleans/Biloxi.

These are not the official forecast, but they are used in making it.

[john316]

my guys haven't run their models yet, I'll wait an see what they have to say.

[eastforker]

Here I am,back in the middle again.