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After a nearly fatal bout with wind shear Thursday afternoon, Claudette now appears to be getting better organized this morning. Satellite indicates that thunderstorms are increasing rapidly near the center, and the outflow pattern above the storm looks to be unhindered by shear. As the center moves back over water this morning, we think that Claudette will gain strength fairly rapidly. There's a good chance that Claudette will become a hurricane within the next 24-36 hours.

Squalls to the north of the center extend out as far as 300-350 miles, but surface winds of 25 mph or higher are confined to within 200 miles northwest and northeast of the center. This means that today will most likely be the last day of good flying weather for the deepwater areas off the Louisiana coast. By Saturday morning, heavy squalls will begin moving across the Keathley Canyon through Lund deepwater areas. Squalls will probably not reach the coastal areas of Louisiana and Texas until later Saturday afternoon or Saturday night.

Our forecast track remains unchanged, but we have low confidence about the eventual landfall point. Much will depend on how quickly Claudette reorganizes this morning and how far north the center moves in the next 24-36 hours. The farther north and the faster Claudette moves today, the farther north along the Texas or Louisiana coast the landfall point will have to be adjusted. Also, we've been counting on a high pressure area building westward across the southeast U.S. in 48 hours that would begin to push Claudette on a more W-WNW track toward Texas. But if this high pressure is slow to arrive, and/or if Claudette is farther north when the high begins to exert its influence, then Claudette could make landfall as far north as the upper Texas coast or Louisiana.

I guess the good news for Louisiana and southeast Texas is that the storm will have to move fast in order to land there. That should mean that it won't have time to become a major hurricane.

However, the ground is already totally saturated in this area from heavy rains in the last week or two. Flooding would definitely occur.