Here I am,back in the middle again.
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on July 11, 2003
morning satellite imagery indicates the center of Claudette is over
the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula to the southwest of broadly
curved deep convection. An Air Force reserve hurricane hunter
aircraft reports flight-level winds of 55 kt northeast of the
center and suggests the central pressure remains near 1008 mb.
Based on this and persistence from the previous advisory...the
maximum winds remain 50 kt.
The initial motion is 315/12...although visible imagery suggests it
might be a little slower. Water vapor imagery shows a weakening
upper-level low west of Claudette...with broad troughing over the
eastern United States between large anticyclones over the
southwestern U.S. And the western Atlantic. Enough ridging remains
east and northeast of Claudette to keep the storm moving
northwestward in the short term...with gradual deceleration as the
cyclone approaches the weakness created by the trough. After 36
hr...large-scale models suggests the trough should slowly weaken
and move eastward...which would allow ridging to build and steer
Claudette more westward. Most NHC track guidance agrees with this
scenario...although BAMD...nhc98...and LBAR move the cyclone
northward to the northern Gulf Coast. The official forecast will
go with the westward turn...calling for a landfall near the mouth
of the Rio Grande in about 96 hr.
Claudette remains disorganized and in significant southerly shear.
This and land interaction will likely prevent strengthening for
12-24 hours. After that...the intensity depends on how a large
upper-level anticyclone forecast by the dynamical models actually
develops. The UKMET and NOGAPS develop the anticyclone over
Claudette. On the other hand...the GFS and Canadian develop the
anticyclone south of the forecast track... which would expose the
storm to 15-30 kt of westerly shear. The models have been too
aggressive in developing this feature to put full Faith in the
UKMET and NOGAPS...so the intensity forecast will call for only
gradual strengthening. However...if the GFS and Canadian verify...
strengthening could be even slower than currently forecast.