Analysis: Shihab-3 'very bad news'

Jerusalem Post ^ | Jul. 8, 2003 | MATTHEW GUTMAN

[yonif]

After years of development, Iran on Monday confirmed that the Shihab-3 ballistic missile, capable of reaching Israel, has undergone its "final testing" and is to go into production.

What appears to be the successful test of the Shihab-3 only confirms what Israeli intelligence officials have warned in increasingly strident language: Iran is the greatest strategic threat to Israel.

"This is very bad news for us," a senior IDF source said Monday night. "It means that Iran now has the capability to deliver a warhead to virtually any location in Israel."

He explained that missiles themselves pose little strategic threat, but, aside from its development of nuclear weapons, Iran has a potent arsenal of chemical and biological weapons that could be delivered by the missiles.

While some Iranian opposition groups disputed the success of the latest Shihab trial the first Shihab-3 was launched with minor success in July 1998 Israeli intelligence confirms that the rocket was launched and landed 1,300 km. away, just as Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi said.

The missile is partially based on North Korea's No Dong missile, a variation on the Scud, originally designed in the Soviet Union.

"Trust me," the source said, "it is no coincidence that the missile was designed for a range of 1,300 kilometers just enough to hit all of Israel."

He noted that "Iran is working as quickly as possible to finish developing a nuclear device."

Current IDF estimates are that Iran might produce a nuclear weapon in two to three years.

"Syria still poses a greater military and strategic threat to us," the source said, "but it is Iran's ideological imperative of destroying Israel which could be so unhealthy for us."

The intelligence community has difficulty deciphering Iranian logic and propaganda. While it knows whose finger rests on or near the "button," the source said it is hard to gauge under what circumstances it could be pressed.

According to a diplomatic source in Jerusalem, the wild card in Iran's nuclear gambit is Russia. While it placates the US by promising to curb its nuclear aid to Iran, Russia finds it nearly impossible to forgo the billions of dollars that could be pumped into its economy should the deal go through. Nor is it interested in losing the billions it has already invested in the project.

Foreign Ministry sources say Israel is shackled in its ability to react and prefers to let the international community pressure the Iranians diplomatically if possible, militarily if necessary into giving up their nuclear program.

Israel considers the application of American and now British pressure on Iran its ace in the hole. "We don't want to lead this fight," said a Foreign Ministry source.

International Atomic Energy Association head Muhammad el-Baredei is to chastise Iran for its nuclear duplicity on his visit there on Wednesday.

However, international pressure has had only partial success in the past. In the 1970s, when the US, pressured by Jerusalem, asked France to downgrade the nuclear reactor it was building for Iraq's Saddam Hussein, the tyrant railed against them. Both the French and the US yielded, and Saddam received his Osirak research reactor, in addition to 13 kg. of weapons-grade uranium.

With the development of an Iraqi nuclear weapon only weeks away, prime minister Menachem Begin gave the air force the green light to destroy the reactor on June 7, 1981.

There are increasing murmurs in both the Israeli and American security establishments that that strike might have to be duplicated.

[yonif]

"Trust me," the source said, "it is no coincidence that the missile was designed for a range of 1,300 kilometers just enough to hit all of Israel."

[Semper Paratus]

Do I hear the sound of IDF Jets revving up?

[Support Free Republic]

Any way I can talk you into making a donation?? Thanks if you will!

[DoughtyOne]

Every week we allow North Korean and Iranian weapons programs to progress, is another week closer to the end of a city on US soil. The technology these two nations develop WILL be handed over to terrorists.

When the EU, the UN and even the US send funds to terrorist states like the PA, those funds finance all manner of evil. Why we do such things is beyond me.

Cash strapped nations like North Korea will be pleased to get the re-directed funds we have given the PA. When terrorist groups approach them, their dollars speak louder than our bluster.

What the hell are we waiting for? Why are we still sending hundreds of millions of dollars to groups who celebrate when US icons are destroyed?

[sfvgt]

.....I wonder if Iran is stupid enough to fire off one of these slow-moving low-tech duds.......

[Gunslingr3]

"Iran's ideological imperative of destroying [us] which could be so unhealthy for us."

Is this guy an expert?

[Jumper]

What we may witness is the Iranians either launching or using these missiles to blackmale Israel who in turn will make demonstratedly show of force and quite possibly extend the assault with weapons in kind to all the Arab capitals who support the Iranians. Then the IDF will roll and we may well see a buffer zone blown wide across the arid spaces that no one can travel through without dying a horrible radiated death.

[Jumper]

When the North Koreans can finally hit all of California and the left coast, it just might solve both political and immigration problems.... Not that we should wish this fate upon anyone, especially the destruction of North Korea for their attempts or efforts.

[risk]

>>>> The technology these two nations develop WILL be handed over to terrorists.

Handed over to? I would call the mullahs terrorists in their own right :)

[DoughtyOne]

Thanks for so glibly pondering my death and that of Free Republic.

[DoughtyOne]

You know, you're correct. Ooops.

[Former Proud Canadian]

I think you mean IAF.

[Our man in washington]

I just think we need to very publicly clarify U.S. policy.

If North Korea sells nukes to a terrorist group and that group uses it on us, goodbye North Korea. Same for Iran. Same for anyone.

[bert]

Tomorrow, 9 July, is perhaps the beginning of the end and sabers are rattling in hopes there will be no outside support for the attemtps at revolution.

[DoughtyOne]

While I think that's a good idea, the reality is that such a retaliation would only come after millions of our fellow citizens were gone. I think our leadership would be absolutely crazy to allow either North Korea or Iran to develop and deploy nukes.

[yonif]

I think you mean IAF.

Technically, the IAF is under the IDF command. The IDF is the umbrella housing the Navy, Air Force, etc. in Israel.

[Our man in washington]

I agree with that too.

It's time to stop pussyfooting around with these guys and pretending that everyone else would be nice if we'd only be nice.

We could put the economic squeeze on North Korea and work for revolution in Iran. That might take care of those two troublemakers. If not, on to Plan B. /Building sites can be destroyed.

[DoughtyOne]

Yes, by any means necessary. If they get religion by use of persuasion I'm all for it. If not it's "big stick" time.

[squidly]

"Muhammad el-Baredei is to chastise Iran for its nuclear duplicity on his visit there on Wednesday."


Well. That'll show 'em.