Bush Has Big Lead Over Dem Challengers In New Jersey

Quinnipiac University ^ | 6/19/03

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June 19, 2003 -- Bush Has Big Lead Over Dem Challengers In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Hillary Clinton Would Dominate Dem Pack

President George W. Bush's approval rating has dropped to 58 -- 39 percent in New Jersey, but he still has a solid early lead over any of the possible Democratic challengers in the run for the White House, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released June 19.

New Jersey voters gave President Bush a 67 -- 29 percent approval in an April 1 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

In a hypothetical look at the 2004 Presidential race in New Jersey:

• Bush beats New York Sen. Hillary Clinton 54 -- 38 percent; • Bush tops Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman 53 -- 39 percent; • Bush beats Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry 53 -- 37 percent.

In these matchups, Bush gets 23 -- 25 percent of the Democratic voters and 52 -- 54 percent of the important independent voters.

"While President Bush's approval has dropped to pre-war levels, he is still extremely popular for a Republican in New Jersey. He also benefits from voter rejection of the Democratic administration in Trenton, " said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Bush is running 14 to 16 points ahead of each of the leading Democratic candidates for President. The Democrat who gets the nomination is going to have a tough time winning New Jersey if the President's popularity holds up," Richards added.

"If Sen. Clinton sits this one out, Sen. Lieberman continues to lead the Democratic pack. But with only 26 percent of the vote, he cannot be considered a strong frontrunner in the crowded field. At this point it's too early to tell much about the Democratic field."

If Clinton runs, she gets 48 percent of the Democratic vote, followed by 14 percent for Lieberman, 11 percent for Kerry, 7 percent for Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt, with no other Democrat getting more than 3 percent.

With Clinton out of the race, Lieberman gets 26 percent, with 15 percent for Kerry, 13 percent for Gephardt, 8 percent for Rev. Al Sharpton and no other candidate above 6 percent. In this field, 21 percent of Democrats are undecided.

From June 11 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 815 New Jersey registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percent. The survey includes 272 Democrats, with a margin of error of +/- 5.9 percent.