Recall Sucking Oxygen From California Senate Race (Davis recall helps Boxer)

Roll Call ^ | 6/12/03 | Josh Kurtz

[Rensselaer]

A meeting this weekend of 400 California Republican moderates was supposed to be a showcase for the party’s potential 2004 Senate contenders, culminating in a straw poll to bless a favorite.

Instead, the confab in the hills above Santa Barbara is likely to be dominated by talk of the effort to recall California Gov. Gray Davis (D).

Three potential Senate candidates are still scheduled to address the Brooks Firestone Republican Weekend, an annual event organized by Firestone, a former state Assemblyman and wealthy GOP power broker. But the straw poll has been scotched.

And now, two conservative politicians closely associated with the recall drive — Rep. Darrell Issa (R) and businessman Bill Simon, the GOP’s gubernatorial nominee in 2002 — have been granted speaking slots. While hardly the favorites of party moderates, both are considered likely candidates for governor if a recall election winds up on the ballot.

“We don’t exclude anybody who wants to talk to our people,” said Brandon Gesicki, a California GOP consultant who works with Firestone.

But the urgency of the discussion about the recall highlights a dilemma for Golden State and national Republicans as they seek a strong challenger to two-term Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) next year: The recall could wind up drowning the Senate race out completely.

“The recall’s affecting everything in California politics,” said Dan Schnur, a Sacramento-based GOP strategist who is advising one potential Senate candidate, Rep. George Radanovich (R-Calif.). “There’s no reason the Senate race should be an exception.”

...

“The Senate candidate will not receive any attention while the recall is on — that much is a given,” said one Sacramento-based GOP operative. “It could also affect fundraising.”

That’s not insignificant for a race where the Republican nominee will probably need $20 million to be competitive.

...

[Rensselaer]

This recall effort is stupid. We can't win this game. If Davis survives, he is stronger than ever. If Davis loses and DiFi is elected, we get little or no improvement in the Gov's mansion, and it's said DiFi will appoint Cruz Bustamente (!) to the Senate - he's more liberal than Boxer, let alone DiFi. If Davis is recalled and a Republican is elected, he faces a huge budget deficit, huge Dem majorities in the legislature, and frankly will be in a can't win situation. He will be voted out in 2006. Meanwhile, his election will molify anger against Dems all around the state, and allow them to blame the GOP for their mess. Meanwhile, as this article notes, we're wasting time, attention, and money that could go to the Senate race next year, and various legislative and other races.

[OldFriend]

There is nothing on earth that could make Davis stronger.......you are dreaming. Davis is toast!

The message will have been sent.....the people have power and are not afraid to exercise that power.

[umgud]

This recall will be over (either way) as early as this fall and no later than the sprng. There is plenty of time to campaign a candidate against Boxer. BTW, don't hold your breath about someone beating Boxer; CA is too heavily liberal to elect a republican senator uless that individual is very noteworthy and charismatic.

[Hostage]

A Republican takes the Governor's mansion, GW makes a deal to bail out California and carries the state in 2004.

The new governor spends all of 2004 issuing press releases of discoveries of scandalous spending by Davis, drumming up a long train of disgust for democrats in the state. Things start to improve, local budgets are stabilized, businesses see a pickup, the GOP candidate for Boxer's seat wins hands down. California gets back their conservative electorate and returns to fiscal sanity.

[Russell Scott]

It was announced tonight on the Al Rantel show by Issa that the recall drive will get enough signatures. Davis is toast, but they may need to send in federal marshals to get him out after the recall election.

[Simmy]

To an extent, I agree. But even in this "liberal" state, Boxer...has always been vernarable. Just that, thanks to the "great" leadership here of the California Republican Party, we never had any great candidate to take her on.

And at the moment, there still no real viable candidate coming forward to take her on. Recall or no recall. There have been rumors, but nothing beyond that.

As for the recall, it will NOT make Davis stronger even if he somehow survives (which even his supporters [who are trying every dirty secret to thwart the recall effort] concede, is VERY likely to make it on the ballot AND a recent poll shows a MAJORITY WILL vote him out). The message would be clear, just because you barely succeeded in winning the re-election doesn't mean you can forget the voters of this state.

As for a Dem getting the job IF Davis is recalled, its a risk true. But IMO, it is ALSO very unlikely. For example, DiFi might find herself competing with other liberals which would split the liberal vote (also, from what I heard, most Californians [even those who like her] don't see her as Governor material. More of a Federal politician then a Local Polititian). This would give a somewhat high profile Republican (like Tom McClintock...if he runs...Arnold Swartzenager [though I prefer the first]...or maybe even Darrel Issa [but he is still unknown for the most the state though]) to win the governorship. Just as long as the Repubs don't have them ALL run (being the idiots the leaders are in this state, I'm almost certain they are not THIS stupid) only the liberals should be afraid of this recall.

[Torie]

I posted this elsewhere, but maybe you want to play chess.

It is a couple of days before the recall election. Davis is the King, and is in mortal danger from being squeezed in a cross-fire by the opponents Queen, Swartsenwhatsit (or your favorite horse), and its Castle, the recall question. You are playing the Davis side. What is your next move?

[Carry_Okie]

A meeting this weekend of 400 California Republican moderates was supposed to be a showcase for the party’s potential 2004 Senate contenders, culminating in a straw poll to bless a favorite.

According to whom?

Davis isn't strong no matter what he does. It's not part of his character.

Meanwhile, his election will molify anger against Dems all around the state, and allow them to blame the GOP for their mess.

Seeing as you clearly haven't been paying attention, the legislature doesn't even care about the budget crisis, so why should they care about Davis. They hate him. They're passing every wierd bill imaginable. Best we give Davis reason to wield a veto pen.

What the RINOS fear is that they now have three candidates in the chase: Issa, Riordan, and Ahnold. The conservatives have one: McClintock. The Slave Party will surely put up a passel of suitors. Hell we've got Bustamentalcase, Willie, Burton, and ChiFinance. With the vote fractured that badly, McClintock has a real shot. No wonder you guys are wailing.

If Davis loses and DiFi is elected, we get little or no improvement in the Gov's mansion, and it's said DiFi will appoint Cruz Bustamente (!) to the Senate - he's more liberal than Boxer, let alone DiFi.

I would love to see DiFi run from Chocolate Mountain.

Does Parsky keep a staff of you professional cassandras on the payroll or what?

[Rensselaer]

Or... GW makes a deal to bail out California, must include aid to other states as well; state governments around the country lose restraint on spending, federal deficit goes up another $75 billion; stock market rebound halts.

Despite the bailout, the GOP governor is still faced with huge deficits, and must either raise taxes, cut spending, or both. He tries to cut spending, activating all the liberal groups. Homelessness stories cover the papers. Democrats in the legislature spend all of 2004 issuing press releases about the hard times in the state, activating their base and moving swing independents into their column. The governor's spending cuts stall in the legislature, and he resorts to a compromise including a variety of tax increases on business. The further weakens the California economy, and alienates the GOP base. Boxer is elected hands down. The Republicans are left weaker than they started.

[Russell Scott]

It sounds like the California Republican surrender monkeys have been drinking too much French whine. Now you know why Gray Davis won the last election. Hmmm, I wonder if they havn't been compromised by Gray money.

[oceanview]

yup, you've got it I think. Just let Davis stew in it, don't nationalize californias problems, let them raise taxes, Bush does not need it in 2004, its a lost cause just like NY.

[Carry_Okie]

My next move is to keep screaming about Chocolate Mountain as loud and long as I can. We need to hang that one around DieFie's piggie neck like a scarf with thirteen knots.

Then there's the great tungsten bullet scam between Blum and AlGore which involved illegal dumping of the DLA Strategic Reserves. Or how about the Catellus sales of all those useless railroad rights of way at 20x above market pursuant to Bubba's "environmintill" EOs?

Run DiFi, run. I could use the entertainment.

[Rensselaer]

No wonder you guys are wailing. Does Parsky keep a staff of you professional cassandras on the payroll or what?

You know nothing about me. I disagree with you on tactics and strategy, and your immediate response is ad hominem attack on someone you don't even know who is passionately on your side - assuming your side is the side that actually wants to elect conservatives to office. No wonder the Cal GOP is in such disarray.

If we can't speak rationally and respectfully to each other, I don't know how you expect to get anywhere.

[Deport Billary]

I don't understand all of this handwringing. Find the strongest candidate for both seats, and win while we have a chance. Gray Davis is at 21% - the recall is a sinch. Boxer is only a few points ahead of Pete Wilson. Time for the CA GOP to put up or shut up.

[Paleo Conservative]

Exactly why I have opposed the recall all along.

[Rensselaer]

It sounds like the California Republican surrender monkeys have been drinking too much French whine. Now you know why Gray Davis won the last election. Hmmm, I wonder if they havn't been compromised by Gray money.

Boy, you're a real coalition builder. No wonder the Cal GOP can't win a race.

[Torie]

You're on the wrong board on the wrong side. You are playing Davis' game. What is your next move?

[Carry_Okie]

You're on the wrong board on the wrong side. You are playing Davis' game. What is your next move?

Oh that's just precious coming from you, seeing as you worked so assiduously to undermine Bill Simon. Got any more like that?

[Torie]

I guess you don't want to play. Davis does have a move to make though, a big one, under such circumstances. It is one you won't like.

[Carry_Okie]

Let me guess, you think he'll resign. We'll get Crux Bustamentalcase and the State tanks.

The people I know, who work with Davis, say he'll never do that. Not in a million years.

If Bustamentalcase does take office, the same justification for a conservative revival, that all you people against the recall have been advancing, will hold in spades.