Hollings OKs polls to gauge any successor

The Post and Courier ^ | 6/10/03 | Schuyler Kropf

[LdSentinal]

U.S. Sen. Fritz Hollings has told the South Carolina Democratic Party it's OK to conduct popularity polls to help evaluate possible successors.

Although Hollings has not ruled out running again in 2004, he told state party Chairman Joe Erwin that his preference is for someone else to step forward and that the party should launch polling to determine strength and name identification.

"I think it's a sign that the senator really does want to see if there is a strong credible candidate, or candidates, willing to take the risk of running," Erwin said Monday after speaking with Hollings via telephone from Washington.

Part of that process is running a poll of candidates to determine their standing among voters, including by geography, Erwin said. Hollings advised him that running a poll is a necessary expense, despite the party's tight finances.

"The really thoughtful people are going to want to know if 'I've got a snowball's chance in hell before I get out there,' " Erwin said, adding that only viable candidates who tell Erwin they are interested in running would have their names polled.

"If we stick names in a poll," he said, "it's going to be someone we talked to."

Hollings, 81, told party leaders several weeks ago that he would not run again if a credible Democrat stepped forward. At least five Republicans are planning bids or considering a run for the seat that Hollings has held since 1966.

Erwin hoped to meet with Hollings in person this week, but their schedules did not allow it. "He wants me to encourage any potential candidates (but) without him making a final call," said Erwin, who declined to discuss the names of the few people he has approached.

Hollings has said he might wait until this fall before deciding what to do, although some Democrats say a decision is needed soon because of the fund-raising demands for a race expected to cost up to $8 million.

The five Republicans either considering or who have announced bids include: former Attorney General Charlie Condon, former U.S. Rep. Tommy Hartnett, developer Thomas Ravenel, Myrtle Beach Mayor Mark McBride, and 4th District U.S. Rep. Jim DeMint of Greenville.

Erwin said his role has shifted heavily to candidate recruitment. "He wants me to be more than neutral, but to encourage people" to run, Erwin said of Hollings.

Hollings' Washington press spokesman said Monday the senator's re-election status remains "undecided."

Republican U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham said recently that Hollings' fence-sitting is sending ripples through the state, adding that if Hollings retires, the state owes him a debt of gratitude for his years of service. But he said if Hollings runs, he still would be a formidable opponent for whichever Republican emerges.

[Impy]

Your time is up, old man.

DeMint will beat him if he runs, if he doesn't they . Bob Inglis would have beaten him if he didn't refuse to take PAC $$$.

I can't wait to see what that jerk Dick Harpootlian (SC dem chairman) says when they lost that sear.

http://imperator3.homestead.com/files/Fritz.bmp

[fieldmarshaldj]

SC Senate race *ping*

Will he ever make up his mind ? I don't think any 'Rat can beat a GOP candidate now in this contest.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Harpootlian is now the ex-Chair, they got a new guy now named Erwin. Not an enviable job.

[GraniteStateConservative]

I discovered that no incumbent president of either party has ever lost re-election when not confronted with significant opposition in the NH presidential primary. The deadline for being on the NH presidential primary ballot is November. I think that decisions like whether Hollings will run again (among other 2004 decisions like that by others) will all be made by December. If Bush looks strong, I think many Democrats up next year will react accordingly and I think we could still get a great crop of GOP candidates to run hoping to ride Bush's coattails.

[fieldmarshaldj]

There are some perils to waiting so long like that. It's not like it used to be where you could conduct a campaign (i.e. raise money, raise money, and raise money) in such a short period of time. You practically need to declare for state or federal office 2 years ahead of time and for President at least 3 years or even right after the inauguration.

[Pubbie]

Ihhh Sahh, Ihhh Saahh, Whhhhhhhhooooooooooolota retirin' goin' on out thhheyahhh!

: D

[MainstreamConservative]

This is going to be Hollings' most competitive race yet. He needed the Clinton fiasco (and the increase in Black turnout) to bail him out in 1998 (although Inglis didn't help himself by refusing PAC money). He had his closest race in 1992, and despite outspending his oponent by a huge margin (about five to one) he prevailed by a mere three points. This time, we will have a republican president racking up a huge margin in the state and a well financed candidate in Rep. Jim DeMint. Put two and two together and you have a very powerful, if not unbeatable, combination.

[GraniteStateConservative]

I'd compare it to TN last year. Lamar Alexander declared his intentions on March 13, 2002 and was elected senator from a state with a similar ideological tilt on November 5--less than 8 months later, 2002 by an 11-point margin. If Hollings decides in November that he's retiring, this seat is an easy GOP pick-up-- all the overhyped drama of last year's race between Graham and Sanders not withstanding.

I'm not suggesting other Republicans wait that long, but don't be surprised if November is a busy month politically. Some Dems may think seriously about retirement, some Dems thinking of challenging incumbent Republicans may take a pass, and some Republicans who were waiting to take on more entrenched Democrats will take the plunge.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Add to that, the fiasco that was David Beasley. We lost a couple Republican statewide officeholders in SC that year.

[fieldmarshaldj]

"I'd compare it to TN last year. Lamar Alexander declared his intentions on March 13, 2002 and was elected senator from a state with a similar ideological tilt on November 5--less than 8 months later, 2002 by an 11-point margin."

Yeah, don't remind me. :-( He didn't deserve to win that nomination. I was really mad at Rove & Company for screwing Ed Bryant. Sometimes these guys get it wrong.

"If Hollings decides in November that he's retiring, this seat is an easy GOP pick-up-- all the overhyped drama of last year's race between Graham and Sanders not withstanding."

Man, that was a snoozer. The 'Rats blew it by not dragging Dick Riley into the race, he'd still stand a decent shot and a lot of old time Conservative 'Rats would pull the lever for him when they might ordinarily go for a Republican.

"I'm not suggesting other Republicans wait that long, but don't be surprised if November is a busy month politically. Some Dems may think seriously about retirement, some Dems thinking of challenging incumbent Republicans may take a pass, and some Republicans who were waiting to take on more entrenched Democrats will take the plunge."

As the old saying goes, we shall see !

[Impy]

Actually he had his closest race in 1966 when he was first elected.

Ernest F Hollings (D) 51.4
Marshall Parker (R) 48.7