I'd compare it to TN last year. Lamar Alexander declared his intentions on March 13, 2002 and was elected senator from a state with a similar ideological tilt on November 5--less than 8 months later, 2002 by an 11-point margin. If Hollings decides in November that he's retiring, this seat is an easy GOP pick-up-- all the overhyped drama of last year's race between Graham and Sanders not withstanding.
I'm not suggesting other Republicans wait that long, but don't be surprised if November is a busy month politically. Some Dems may think seriously about retirement, some Dems thinking of challenging incumbent Republicans may take a pass, and some Republicans who were waiting to take on more entrenched Democrats will take the plunge.
"I'd compare it to TN last year. Lamar Alexander declared his intentions on March 13, 2002 and was elected senator from a state with a similar ideological tilt on November 5--less than 8 months later, 2002 by an 11-point margin."
Yeah, don't remind me. :-( He didn't deserve to win that nomination. I was really mad at Rove & Company for screwing Ed Bryant. Sometimes these guys get it wrong.
"If Hollings decides in November that he's retiring, this seat is an easy GOP pick-up-- all the overhyped drama of last year's race between Graham and Sanders not withstanding."
Man, that was a snoozer. The 'Rats blew it by not dragging Dick Riley into the race, he'd still stand a decent shot and a lot of old time Conservative 'Rats would pull the lever for him when they might ordinarily go for a Republican.
"I'm not suggesting other Republicans wait that long, but don't be surprised if November is a busy month politically. Some Dems may think seriously about retirement, some Dems thinking of challenging incumbent Republicans may take a pass, and some Republicans who were waiting to take on more entrenched Democrats will take the plunge."
As the old saying goes, we shall see !