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No Front-Runner, Democrats Plot Strategy
Yahoo News ^ | 5/25/03 | RON FOURNIER

Posted on 05/25/2003 7:35:10 PM PDT by Libloather

No Front-Runner, Democrats Plot Strategy
2 hours, 11 minutes ago
By RON FOURNIER, AP Political Writer

WASHINGTON - The campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination will pit the tortoises against the hares, three patient plodders hoping to overtake three confident sprinters after the race's first lap.

Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri and former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean are the pacesetters. Following the traditional nomination path, they are seeking victories Jan. 19 in Iowa or eight days later in New Hampshire to build momentum for the first multistate showdown Feb. 3.

Sens. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, John Edwards of North Carolina and Bob Graham of Florida are betting their candidacies on a largely untested theory — that they can wait until Feb. 3 or beyond for their first victories.

They will need a lot of money and a bit of luck to pull it off. At least one of the slow-starters, Edwards, may air the campaign's first ads in later summer or early fall to jump-start his bid.

"Scenarios for starting later just never succeed," said Steve Murphy, Gephardt's campaign director.

Eight months before the first vote is cast, no front-runner has emerged in a campaign that may last just six weeks in early 2004, according to Democrats in key states and the candidates' own strategists.

The winner takes on President Bush in the fall of 2004.

After the Feb. 3 elections in Arizona, South Carolina, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico and Oklahoma, eight more states plus the District of Columbia select delegates in the next three weeks.

Then comes Super Tuesday on March 2, when California, New York and at least seven other states choose delegates. After that big day, more than half of the 2,161 delegates needed for the nomination will have been awarded.

"Every serious candidate is studying the primary election calendar and trying to make the math work for them," said Dennis Goldford, professor of political science at Iowa's Drake University. "It can only work for one of them."

A look at the candidates:

KERRY: The four-term senator is casting himself as the front-runner. But he is not the candidate leading in national polls (Lieberman), fund raising (Edwards) or even in experience as a presidential candidate (Gephardt).

Kerry hopes to knock Gephardt from the race in Iowa and storm into New Hampshire, a state that shares a media market with the senator's native Massachusetts. From there, Kerry hopes to win the nomination wire-to-wire without using any of his wife's fortune.

He will need Teresa Heinz Kerry's money in the general election against Bush, who expects to raise $200 million or more.

DEAN: The physician-turned-politician is slightly trailing Kerry in New Hampshire polls and has built an organization in Iowa second only to Gephardt. But he has relatively little money or support from traditional corners of the party.

The former governor needs to catch fire in Iowa and New Hampshire, then use that momentum to raise money as he goes. It is a page from the 1984 playbook of Gary Hart but with a twist: Dean is using the Internet to court campaign workers and donors.

He hopes the compressed primary calendar plays to his favor, giving more established rivals little time to recover if he surprises them early.

GEPHARDT: The former House minority leader revitalized his campaign with an ambitious health care plan. He wants the two New England candidates, Dean and Kerry, to siphon votes from each other while he plies his blue-collar populist message in Iowa and New Hampshire.

He won Iowa in 1988 but lost the nomination. If he loses the caucuses this time, Gephardt's candidacy is over.

A veteran campaigner, he meets 50 to 70 Iowans at a time, with a special emphasis on rural voters largely ignored by the other campaigns.

After Iowa, Gephardt has his eye on anti-trade, union and black votes in places such as South Carolina and Michigan. Edwards is competing in the same states with the same message.

EDWARDS: The first-term senator and wealthy former trial lawyer stumbled after posting impressive fund-raising numbers in March. But he has announced several new policies, including a $7 billion plan for rural America.

Edwards hopes Gephardt gets knocked out in Iowa, giving him room to make a populist pitch in the Feb. 3 races. He needs to win outside his native South Carolina (birthplace Seneca, S.C.) or he will be limping into Michigan's Feb. 7 primary.

LIEBERMAN: He is leading in national polls, largely because of his role as then-Vice President Al Gore's running mate in 2000.

Lieberman needs to improve his fund raising so he can run a national campaign while Kerry, Dean and Gephardt beat each other up early on. His campaign director, Craig Smith, ran the political operation of the last Democrat who successfully ran as a moderate: Bill Clinton.

Lieberman must finish in the top three in Iowa or New Hampshire, then pick up victories Feb. 3 to slow whoever comes steaming out of New Hampshire.

Michigan on Feb. 7 is not a good state for Lieberman; neither is Maine a day later. Ties to state workers in Virginia and Gore supporters in Tennessee, plus Lieberman's support of statehood in the District of Columbia, might help Feb. 10.

GRAHAM: The late-starting former Florida governor has led Democrats in criticizing Bush's efforts against terrorism.

Graham will compare himself to centrist Democratic governors in Oklahoma and Arizona on Feb. 3. Wisconsin has a newly elected Democratic governor, and its Feb. 17 stand-alone primary could winnow the field before Super Tuesday.

The three remaining candidates — former Illinois Sen. Carol Moseley Braun, Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio and Al Sharpton — are considered long shots for the party's nomination.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Ron Fournier has covered the White House and politics for The Associated Press since 1993.


TOPICS: Extended News; Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2004; democrats; electionpresident; frontrunner; plot; rats; strategy
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A strategy without a front-runner or one issue. Clever...
1 posted on 05/25/2003 7:35:11 PM PDT by Libloather
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To: Libloather
There is an issue: Take lots of money from the productive people and give it to the non-productive people who vote for the Democratic party. That is always the issue.
2 posted on 05/25/2003 7:44:00 PM PDT by 07055
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To: Libloather
The strategy is "Draft Hillary."

Punk McAuliffe and the Clintons have cooked this whole thing up. They know that none of the pygmies running for the nomination can beat George Bush, and the poll numbers all summer in 2004 will show it. Just before or after Labor Day, whichever pygmy who is the nominee will drop out. Dont worry about him; McAuliffe will make sure he is well compensated. Hillary can then "reluctantly" answer the call of her party and become the candidate. She avoids 18 or so months of campaigning and scrutiny, and weasels her way into the White House. The strategy worked for Frank Lautencadaver in NJ in 2002.

Laughable? Maybe. But also possible. Would you put anything past the Clintons to try and seize power in this country?
3 posted on 05/25/2003 7:45:18 PM PDT by Astronaut
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To: Astronaut
I don't see Hillary as a latecomer into this. First, why would Dean or Kerry or whomever drop out? Unless they had a 9mm brain hemorrage, and that won't happen. Also, Hillary has a lot of negatives in the heartland. She'd have to face scrutiny on the issues. Finally, someone is going to win the Dem nomination, and they'll all get behind him. Why would that guy step aside? He's going to think he's going to win, damn the polls.
4 posted on 05/25/2003 7:53:53 PM PDT by Koblenz (There's usually a free market solution)
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To: Libloather
Kinda scary isn't it...
5 posted on 05/25/2003 7:55:12 PM PDT by tubebender ((?))
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To: Astronaut
Laughable, yes. Possible, no.

Why would the front runner drop out? It needs a better answer than "he is well compensated".

6 posted on 05/25/2003 8:06:55 PM PDT by nwrep
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To: Libloather
The big thing here, where this article fails to note, is why Lieberman is really leading. The fact of the matter is, that the activists, the loony leftwingers, the kooks, etc are all split up between Gephardt, Dean (who they actually do adore), and Kerry. Edwards is doing well money wise due to the trial lawyers (who seem to be breaking every single Campaign law in there zeal for him).

Lieberman himself has alot of issues with the far left, in there total hatred of him. As long as the left keeps splitting itself apart, Holy Joe will have the lead, and he draws moderate dems to him. If he gets the nomination, the democratic party is doomed. He, more then anyone else, guarantees a green party canidate, also, due to heavy anti-semetism from african americans and hispanics, not to mention the far left crowd, assures that a huge part of the base, will simply stay home and not vote. Bush could wind up with 40 states and the GOP blowing out the dems in the house and senate.

Dean is the only one that scares republicans. In all likely hood, the greens wouldn't push him, he is as liberal as they come, and is pushing for the loony left vote, he however is not liberal on one key issue.

Dean is a strong supporter of the 2nd amendment. Before running for governor, he swore he would never sign a gun control bill, and he has kept his word, he has also voiced opposition against the assault weapons ban, and has perfect marks from both the NRA and GOA. He is not a gun grabber, and is more farther to the right on guns then most republicans are, but he is pretty much socialist everywhere else, and doesn't realize that his shoot from the hip style enrages people, and his support of gay marriages (he promises to make them legal as president) guarantee the social conservative part of the base would be motivated to vote, 4 million evangicals stayed home in 2000, if Dean is running, that will not happen again.

7 posted on 05/25/2003 8:07:42 PM PDT by Sonny M ("oderint dum metuant")
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To: Libloather
The front runner is not running. She doesn't need to. She is the most powerful force in the Democratic party waiting to be drafted after all the second tier goofs finish attacking each other.
8 posted on 05/25/2003 8:12:46 PM PDT by RLK
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To: Astronaut
"Punk McAuliffe..."

You're being much too kind.

...Sure can't put anything past this wrecking crew. Republicans definitely need to be on their toes. I going to be a looong eighteen months.

-Regards, T.
9 posted on 05/25/2003 8:38:36 PM PDT by T Lady (.Freed From the Dimocratic Shackles since 1992)
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To: T Lady
I-It's.
10 posted on 05/25/2003 8:47:29 PM PDT by T Lady (.Freed From the Dimocratic Shackles since 1992)
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To: Libloather; Joy Angela; conservogirl
"BLOCK EVERYTHING until you get what you want"

"WALK OUT and shut down the Legislature to gain Power"

= HITLER's National Socialist Party-1930's

= HILLARY's Democrat Socialist Party-2000's
11 posted on 05/25/2003 8:54:44 PM PDT by ALOHA RONNIE (Vet-Battle of IA DRANG-1965 www.LZXRAY.com..)
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To: Astronaut
My feelings are that you are right. Everything I have ever read on Hillary tells me this. She is after the White House, always has been. Terry is in there for that purpose. We are doomed if this woman is ever in charge.
12 posted on 05/25/2003 8:58:10 PM PDT by ladyinred (Freedom isn't free, remember our fallen heroes)
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To: ALOHA RONNIE
I expect the "TWO FOR ONE" offer again. HILL & BILL!

God Bless the USA.
13 posted on 05/25/2003 8:59:49 PM PDT by John Jamieson
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To: Libloather
"A strategy without a front-runner or one issue. Clever..."

It's the lemming strategy, pioneered by James Earl Carter.
14 posted on 05/25/2003 9:00:32 PM PDT by Beck_isright (When Senator Byrd landed on an aircraft carrier, the blacks were forced below shoveling coal...)
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To: Libloather
Gephardt will now be after the gay vote since his recently-divorced daughter came out in the paper this weekend.
15 posted on 05/25/2003 9:03:48 PM PDT by MHT
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To: Astronaut
I don't think that Hillary is after 2004--she might lose. 2008 is her best shot, which gives her 4 years to raise money, rebuild her image, etc. After all, none of these contenders, including Hillary, could debate a sitting President, even if they do think he is a verbal klutz.
16 posted on 05/25/2003 9:07:19 PM PDT by MHT
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To: Beck_isright
Hillary: What do know about Vince Fosterser's death and when did you know it?
17 posted on 05/25/2003 9:08:42 PM PDT by AGreatPer
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To: AGreatPer
"Hillary: What do know about Vince Fosterser's death and when did you know it?"

Hillary to Bush in the debate:

"Why have you allowed the spread of PMS to all women via your evil right wing Air Force patrols spraying stuff everywhere in the air?"
18 posted on 05/25/2003 9:11:18 PM PDT by Beck_isright (When Senator Byrd landed on an aircraft carrier, the blacks were forced below shoveling coal...)
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To: MHT
odd how that issue keeps comming up. first republicans meet with pro-homosexuals, then with ex-homosexuals, and now gheparts recently-divorced daughter. Is the race going to be so tight for democrats? If then need a 2.78% of the population group perhaps they should go after motocyclists, tennis players, golfers, boaters, or farmers.

The democrat stategy is founded on avoiding extinction more than even winning.
19 posted on 05/25/2003 9:13:27 PM PDT by longtermmemmory
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To: Astronaut
The strategy worked for Frank Lautencadaver in NJ in 2002

ROTFL ... Has Lousenberg done anything since being elected? I swear the guy could have passed away 6 months ago and I think they'd still prop his embalmed corpse in the chair just to hang onto the senate seat. You gotta hand it to the RATS, if an election is close they'll do whatever it takes to steal it.

20 posted on 05/25/2003 9:17:06 PM PDT by YankeeReb
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