Opponents of Gray Davis Step Up Recall Effort

News 10 - KXTV ABC, Sacramento ^ | 05/17/2003 | Marci Brightwell

[Impeach98]

Opponents of Gray Davis Step Up Recall Efforts

Opponents of Governor Gray Davis turned up the heat on their effort to have him recalled, as they began collecting signatures at new drive-through petition centers.

They have a considerable distance to go, needing to collect 897,000 valid signatures by September 2. At this point, recall supporters have acquired less than 10 percent what they'll need.

Those stopping by to sign the petitions felt strongly that the governor has to go. "I'm a teacher and I've been disappointed in the support we've gotten from the governor and I'm very supportive of what's been going on here," said Diane Evans.

Supporters of the governor dismiss the recall effort as the work of a fringe group. "They can't get their act together they don't have the resources," said Davis spokesperson Roger Salazar. "They don't get the fact that Californians aren't interested in a recall as the solution to the state's problems."

The campaign to oust Davis got a financial shot in the arm in early May, when Rep. Darrell Issa made a six-figure donation to the effort. The Republican congressman from Vista has also taken the first steps to launch his own campaign for governor.

Issa is best known to Californians for his unsuccessful bid for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in 1998. He was elected to Congress in 2000.

Issa made millions with a car alarm manufacturing company he founded. He has largely funded his own campaigns, spending $10 million on the campaign for senator and $1.5 million to get elected to Congress.

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[upchuck]

With all due respect to my Kali FReeper friends, being able to sign this petition is the ONLY thing that ever made me wish I lived there.

[John Jorsett]

These people are a bit behind in the events regarding the Davis recall. The Lincoln Club has donated another $100K to the effort. And if Davis is so sure Californians don't want him recalled, why has he quietly resumed fundraising?

[Timesink]

How does this work? Does getting the required number of signatures result in a recall election, or is he thrown out instantaneously?

[Impeach98]

Once 897,158 valid signatures are collected the recall qualifies for the ballot. Then 50% +1 or more of the vote must be "YES" to recall for the Governor to be ousted.

We are in the ballpark of 250,000 signatures collected thus far and charging forward fast!

[absalom01]

What's really interesting to me is that getting people to sign is incredibly easy. Over the past few weekends, I've been averaging 25 signers per hour, just at local supermarkets and hardware store entrances. Even Dems. will gladly sign.

I was originally goofing around with this as a way of staying active, but am beginning to think that we might actually pull this off.

Of course, the likely sucessor is our current no-good A.G., but dealing a defeat to the Dems on this is worth it.

[freekitty]

Good for them. It's time someone helped California. The damage they have done is unbelievable. I say go after the pig at the trough.

[Impeach98]

If we collect the requisite signatures by July 10th or so we can almost guarantee a special election in the fall. (I say "almost guarantee" because you know the crooked liberal establishment will try ever dirty legal trick in the book to try and delay or invalidate the special election - just ask the Texas GOP what happens when Democrats sink to any criminal level to thwart the will of the people when they (the Dems) don't like the outcome.)

If we get this special election then the people who will turn out are those who are most motivated to vote - in this case the "Davis-haters" who want to see his @ss kicked out of office.

These will be the people who vote on question #2 on the recall ballot (Question #1 is "Do You Support the Recall of Gov. Gray Davis?) - and that is "Who Do You Vote for As Successor to Gov. Davis Should He Be Recalled?"

My guess is a Republican wins a strong plurality in this vote and is the top vote-getter, and ergo next Governor.

The stupid Greens actually had a chance to have their first competitive Gubernatorial campaign in history. If they had embraced this recall effort as an official backer early they could have galvanized the progressive community that is angry with Davis at selling them out. Running a strong and enthusiastic campaign of "discontent from the left" alongside the conservative anti-tax, anti-Democrat, anti-corruption campaign and they could have gotten a Green candidate up to maybe 10%-15%-20% of the vote. That would have made them relevant in the pre-election news coverage and any debates.

They blew it.

[Common Tator]

Opponents of Gray Davis Step Up Recall Efforts

Isn't that an interesting title. They are stepping up recall efforts. Apparently their first efforts were of such a low intensity that they were not gathering enough signatures to force a recall vote on Davis. So now they are stepping up efforts.

Stepping up efforts tells you the entire story. "Opponents of Gray Davis are making good progress" would be a title showing that the opponents have a chance. Stepping up efforts is an admission that earlier efforts were not enough to produce success.

Note that history shows recall efforts have diminishing returns on signatures over time. In the first weeks of collecting petitions, the rate is as great as it will ever be. History shows that each succeeding week the rate of return decreases.

If in the first month the opponents get 10 percent of the signatures needed, history says the second month will find the total at 18 percent of the signatures needed. The third month will find 25 percent of the signatures needed. The fourth month will find the total has climbed to 29 percent of the signatures needed. Then in the fifth the total will grow to 30 percent. Increases thereafter will be at a rate per month of less than one percent. Gray davis's term would be ended long before enough signatures would be acquired to force a vote.

The only way this is going to happen is if at the end of June the opponents have well over half the signatures needed. The opponents boast about getting 100 grand here and 100 grand there to finance the campaign. They are talking hundred grands in in a state where millions are spent to get on the ballot for state wide office. Only a being able to raise a few hundred thousand dollars to finance a recall effort shows the weakness of those trying for a recall.

It seems very unlikely that this recall will succeed.

[AndyTheBear]

Once 897,158 valid signatures are collected the recall qualifies for the ballot. Then 50% +1 or more of the vote must be "YES" to recall for the Governor to be ousted. We are in the ballpark of 250,000 signatures collected thus far and charging forward fast!

Now wait a minute: 250,000 is about 28 percent of the 897,158 needed...but the news story said they have less then 10 percent. Not that I think anybody is being untruthful, I just think the news story does their math in a way that is a little more sensative to the feelings of those on the Left...and that by pointing out the actual figures you are just being plain mean!

[marktwain]

If in the first month the opponents get 10 percent of the signatures needed, history says the second month will find the total at 18 percent of the signatures needed. The third month will find 25 percent of the signatures needed. The fourth month will find the total has climbed to 29 percent of the signatures needed. Then in the fifth the total will grow to 30 percent. Increases thereafter will be at a rate per month of less than one percent. Gray davis's term would be ended long before enough signatures would be acquired to force a vote.

So, where do you get your numbers from, C.T.? My experience has been just the opposite. Signatures come in slow at first, because it takes time for activists to become aware, money to come in, and people to be recruited. As time goes on, the rate of signitures increases, and it is often accelerated to the end of the campaign.

[AndyTheBear]

I had been contemplating collecting signatures outside a grocery store on the weekend, but I am not sure if I have to get the OK of the store or what not. Any advice to this end would be appreciated.

[AndyTheBear]

Note that history shows recall efforts have diminishing returns on signatures over time

This may be true of smaller efforts or efforts which the main stream media makes a lead story about, but I doubt it applies in this case.

This is a word mouth grass roots movement with no paticular leader, spreading out of its own accord over a huge state. Not everybody who is going to sign or circulate the petition will likely do so at the same time.

[absalom01]

"...I am not sure if I have to get the OK of the store ..."

Strictly speaking, even though your average grocery store entrance is on private property, you have the right to collect signatures for petitions, sign up new voters and other similar political activities wherever the public is permitted. You may not set up a card table without the store's prior permission, however.

As a practical matter, I generally call, or speak to the manager a couple of days before, just for the sake of good manners. Not everyone bothers, however, and it is rare to have a complaint, as long as one conducts oneself with ordinary civility.

So, download the petition forms, and go forth and gather. This one is a lot of fun.

Of course, you do get a snippy Dems every now and again, but it's agreeable sport to skewer their lame attempts at defending Gray-out.

[Dante3]

BUMP

[tubebender]

BUMP...

[Liz]

[Impeach98]

Recall Gray Davis Committee has already raised about $500,000 on its own (which will be public info when the filing period ends at the end of June and is reported at the end of July). Issa has put in at least another $100,000 of his own already plus now $250,000 from the Orange County Lincoln Club and OC Lincoln Club members.

More money is likely on the way too.

With the total at 250,000 without the paid signatures even having come into play (as they are now starting to come back in for processing) it is quite clear the total will be 500,000 very very quickly.

The media is going to be apeshit at that point and you can expect to see them throw everything they got at the recall effort in hopes of defeating it. Flirting with punishing Davis they don't mind... but actually succeeding and ousting him from office will be something intolerable in the minds of so many of them.

We are working to respond to this coming reality as well.

[Impeach98]

You have a right to be present outside a store on the sidewalk. You don't have a "right" to be stationary with a table collecting signatures - as you would technically be blocking the right of way on the sidewalk. But if you talk to the store management first, not only will your standing and moving around presence (with clipboard) be tolerated by the store better, some managers will be fine with you setting up a table so long as it is a good way's from the entrance. Just talk to them and be nice - the setup will vary from store to store depending on the manager and what chainwide provisions some retailers have put in place to handle solicitors/petitioners/and what not.