SARS DEATH RATE FOR OLDER PEOPLE MORE THAN 50%: WHO

Channel News Asia ^ | 08 May 2003

[11th_VA]

The World Health Organization has released new information about who SARS kills and how long it takes to develop, while US health officials say overall there is no evidence the virus is changing or becoming deadlier in any way.

The WHO said the death rate, previously estimated at between 6 percent and 10 percent, now ranged up to 50 percent depending on who fell ill.

"On the basis of more detailed and complete data, and more reliable methods, WHO now estimates that the case fatality ratio of SARS ranges from 0 percent to 50 percent depending on the age group affected, with an overall estimate of case fatality of 14 percent to 15 percent," WHO said on its website.

"Based on data received by WHO to date, the case fatality ratio is estimated to be less than 1 percent in persons aged 24 years or younger, 6 percent in persons aged 25 to 44 years, 15 percent in persons aged 45 to 64 years, and greater than 50 percent in persons aged 65 years and older," it added.

"The likelihood that a person will die of SARS could be influenced by factors related to the SARS virus, the route of exposure and dose (amount) of virus, personal factors such as age or the presence of another disease, and access to prompt medical care," WHO added.

WHO said it still estimated the incubation period of SARS was 10 days, meaning it takes that long from the time a person is exposed to develop symptoms.

WHO's Dr David Heymann meanwhile told a US House of Representatives hearing in Washington that a major concern was what would happen if SARS hit people infected with the AIDS virus, which destroys immunity.

Dr Heymann and other health officials told the House hearing there was no evidence people transmit the virus before they develop the cough, fever and pneumonia that characterize SARS.

Dr Anthony Fauci, head of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said there was also no evidence that some mutations seen in the virus made it any more deadly.

[_Jim]

SARS DEATH RATE FOR OLDER PEOPLE MORE THAN 50%: WHO

"Old age to claim other 50%" - _Jim

[keri]

ping

[_Jim]

20% or more of the entire population of the planet, so it's not an insignificant problem.

NUMBERS-WISE (literaly: 'body count'), economics-wise or just a 'big' problem in general?

What, really, will be the BIG effect we see in this country?

[Beck_isright]

"SARS DEATH RATE FOR OLDER PEOPLE MORE THAN 50%: WHO

"Old age to claim other 50%" - _Jim"

And according to the DNC the last 50% will be killed by evil Republican budget cuts...

[Beck_isright]

"What, really, will be the BIG effect we see in this country?"

When you go to WalMart to buy a plastic widget or Christmas tree lights this year, the price will be higher or no inventory avaialable because the factories were shuttered.

[Fixit]

You can't spell S.A.R.S. without S.S. .

[_Jim]

Just imagine if a hundred truck drivers in Toronto came down with this and spread it.

1) Intentionally, coughing and hacking to *spread* this disease among the public or

2) BLIND to the fact they are hacking and coughing in the cabs of their trucks and *while* hearing about SARS over a) the CB b) in truck stops/motels on TV c) over the radio *all the while* their breath (literally: their ability to 'draw breath') grows short?

MOST truckrs smoke too much - THIS is liable to have a nullifying effct on SARS viral contagion that make their way into a trucker's lungs (Nicotine is an effective poison) ...

[Malsua]

SARS

If you bury your head in the sand, it might go away, right?

It's not a big deal because only 6000 people have it, right?

No one in the states has died from it, so it's no big deal right?

Right. It's not a big deal, _RIGHT NOW_ if you don't have it and you are reasonably healthy and are under 65 years old.

If you don't fit that demo, you're more likely than not to die from it if you do get it.

But we shouldn't be concerned? Reading some FR posts, one would believe that we should just think it's an Asian problem and it's medical folks seeking funding hyping this thing.

One must consider the larger picture. Yes, it's not a problem now unless you're older and catch it.

This genie however seems not to like to be stoppered in its bottle. If mainland China at large becomes a hotbed for SARS, it will become a pandemic. The reasons? Long incubation and morbidity. Toss in some mutation aspects and we've got the holy grail of death sentance in a water droplet.

I'm not in a panic and I don't think anyone should be. What I belive needs to occur is that we absolutely _MUST_ treat SARS as if it were an airborne Ebola or Smallpox.

Hype? I can only hope. Acting as it were merely hype though means ignoring a vast number of indicators.

Act as if this is a TEOTWAWKI and squish it _NOW_. Lets hope this is a flash in the pan.

-Mal

[_Jim]

no inventory avaialable because the factories were shuttered.

"And the cupboards were bare ..."

Time to resort to colored paper chains, popcorn-on-a-thread and other 'domestically made' ornamentation for Christmas ...

[_Jim]

Hype? I can only hope. Acting as it were merely hype though means ignoring a vast number of indicators.

Are you gonna start buying MRE's, a supply of surgical masks and your own RN (Registered Nurse) for the duration?

[Beck_isright]

Actually my concern is not so much the coughing aspect of spreading it, but they are in contact with a lot of surfaces over a large amount of territory. Think about it. Truck stops. Hotels. Food suppliers. Convenience stores. If it gets into that part of the population, life would change here as we know it.

[Joe Hadenuf]

...Authorities were trying to track down people who rode in the taxi."

LOL, I'm sure they got right on it.....I can imagine them asking the sick cab driver, ok, describe those 60 people that you picked up in the last 4 days

[blam]

"Are you gonna start buying MRE's, a supply of surgical masks and your own RN (Registered Nurse) for the duration?"

Better put a ventilator on that list too.

[Malsua]

>>Are you gonna start buying MRE's, a supply of surgical masks and your own RN (Registered Nurse) for the duration?
<<

No, certainly not.

Will I avoid Mainland China? Yup. I would be in Guangdong province China today had SARS not come onto the Scene.

While a regular guy on the street is quite unlikely to get SARS, if you were to end up in a hospital in Shen Zhen or in Hong Kong, your risk has gone up tremendously. Why take a risk needlessly? Why not let this thing get isolated and finished off?

Again, no panic, just vigilance and no needless exposure factors. Why is that worthy of derision?


-Mal

[Calpernia]

Don't forget the 'mail' Becky.

[Calpernia]

Still do domestically made ornaments. Kids love that. (sorry, 'mom' being off topic)

[_Jim]

my concern is not so much the coughing aspect of spreading it, but they are in contact with a lot of surfaces over a large amount of territory.

I know I know - and truckers are such an intelligent lot that they can be expected NOT to recognize they've got SARS symptoms showing - right?

</sarcasm>

[Calpernia]

Since you may know...any idea on the number count for rural victims?

[_Jim]

Again, no panic, just vigilance and no needless exposure factors. Why is that worthy of derision?

'cause I think anybody with half a functioning brain *already* KNOWS via common-sense what things *to do* and also what things/activities NOT to do AND where to stay away from for awhile!

[NorseWood]

What happens when the next sick illegal immigrant who has hiked across our southern border gets a job working with a landscaper and starts spreading the SARS virus throughout his circle of contacts?