Don't count comptroller out (Edgar leads Hynes by 15% in two polls)

He's up to the challenge. Democratic U.S. Senate contender Dan Hynes, who had all the advantages in a projected 2004 matchup against Sen. Peter G. Fitzgerald, is facing a more difficult contest in the wake of Fitzgerald's withdrawal as a candidate for re-election.

Hynes, 34, the two-term state comptroller, would be the underdog in a race against former Gov. Jim Edgar, 56, the Republican Party's consensus choice for the U.S. Senate.

At the same time, Hynes has the potential to give Edgar a more competitive run than any Democrat in the field. In a series of statewide polls taken since Fitzgerald's withdrawal, Edgar has led in every trial heat. But Hynes is showing more strength against Edgar in the polls than any other Democrat.

This is the most compelling argument for his nomination. Among the half-dozen Democrats vying for Fitzgerald's seat, Hynes alone has won at the statewide level.

Others seeking the Democratic nomination include Cook County Treasurer Maria Pappas, state Sen. Barack Obama (D-Chicago), former Chicago Board of Education President Gery Chico, millionaire businessman Blair Hull and health care executive Joyce Washington.

Before Fitzgerald took himself out of the race, the Democrats were less concerned about nominating their strongest candidate because of the perception that Fitzgerald couldn't win. If Edgar runs for the Senate, he would be the instant favorite. But Hynes could make it a contest.

Edgar is leading Hynes by 15 percentage points in two statewide polls--one conducted on behalf of a Republican client and the other for Hynes. In a second GOP-sponsored poll, Hynes trails by a smaller margin. Edgar's camp views Hynes as the former governor's most formidable prospective rival.

When Edgar made it known that he might run for Fitzgerald's seat, Hynes commissioned a benchmark poll. The Global Strategy Group, which is based in New York, conducted telephone interviews with 1,200 likely Illinois voters in the 2004 elections.

Among all respondents, Edgar held a 49 percent to 34 percent advantage over Hynes. When matched against other Democrats, Edgar led by overwhelming margins. Only Hynes held him below 50 percent.

Hynes has reason to believe that he could be competitive with Edgar. The former governor is known by 92 percent of Illinois voters while Hynes is known by 61 percent. If Hynes goes on to win the Democratic nomination, there would be less disparity in name recognition. ''Hynes has room to grow,'' said a Democratic strategist. ''Not everyone knows who Dan Hynes is.''

In the Global Strategies poll, Hynes is running almost even with Edgar among voters familiar with both men. Edgar is favored by 45.5 percent and Hynes by 42.2 percent among respondents knowledgeable about both prospective candidates. This is a virtual dead heat given the poll's margin for error of plus or minus 2.8 percent.

Within this same group, Hynes improved his numbers after the poll's respondents learned more about him.

At the same time, he nudged slightly ahead of Edgar among all voters in the Cook County suburbs after a short profile was read during the telephone interviews.

Since 1990, the Cook County suburbs have been decisive in close statewide elections. Edgar won more than two-thirds of the suburban vote in his 1994 re-election. Hynes has averaged 65 percent of the suburban vote in his two statewide races.

There have been major demographic and political changes in the Cook County suburbs since Edgar last ran for office. The southern and western suburbs and the North Shore have become more Democratic. The GOP's last stronghold is the northwestern Cook suburbs. If Hynes could win a simple majority of the vote in the 30 townships, he would be competitive in a statewide race against Edgar.

Some Democratic officeholders, who are backing Hynes, have privately expressed concern that he could be headed for a mismatch against the popular Edgar. But to win anything worthwhile in politics, a candidate must be willing to risk a possible loss.

Edgar, who was among this state's better governors, would be an easy winner over Hynes if the 2004 Senate election is a referendum on his long and distinguished public career.

But elections are about the future, and Hynes represents a new generation of leadership. In three of his four statewide races, Edgar was born in a later decade than his Democratic opponent. This time, Hynes is the fresher face. It has been nine years since Edgar last faced the voters. Hynes is making his third statewide run in six years. He's ready to rumble.

Steve Neal is an idiot.

1. Hynes is the best Democrat against Edgar because he runs only 15 pts down in polls, better than any other Dem, because he's better known.
2. Hynes is only known by 60% of folks, so he has room to "grow", narrow that 15% gap.

Doesn't it then follow that the other Democrats, who are currently lesser-known than Hynes, would have MORE room to grow and narrow their 25% gap (or whatever) vs Edgar?

The polling won't show which candidate will run best against Edgar until they're all fairly well known.

Great news! This is a very 'hold-able' seat. Once we get this nailed down, we can straighten out Alaska and go after tinny tommy and his misfits with a clear head.

If the seat goes from Fitzgerald to Edgar, we've already lost it. Pro-abort, and pro-corrupt RINO establishment. A terrible loss for IL. Fitz was the best Senator IL has had since Dirksen.

"If the seat goes from Fitzgerald to Edgar, we've already lost it. Pro-abort, and pro-corrupt RINO establishment. A terrible loss for IL. Fitz was the best Senator IL has had since Dirksen."

When over the record of the senator's from Illinois. Chuck Percy is truely a vile person, one who I could never vote for. Given the choice between a liberal anti-semite (Percy) and a liberal pro-Israeli politician (Simon) I would have voted for the latter. Al Dixon wasn't that bad for a democrat. Carol Mosely Braun was an embarrassment. So yeah, I guess your right about Fitzgerald.

As to Edgar, remember that the key is getting President Bush's judicial nominee's confirmed. If he votes for a controversial supreme court nominee and is fiscally conservative, I'm happy. That's all we can expect from a state like Illinois.

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"As to Edgar, remember that the key is getting President Bush's judicial nominee's confirmed. If he votes for a controversial supreme court nominee and is fiscally conservative, I'm happy. That's all we can expect from a state like Illinois."

I just wonder if Edgar will end up like Bob Kustra if a more inspiring candidate gets in on the GOP side. Does he REALLY have the fire in the belly ? I think not. I believe he will be a very disappointing Senator.

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