Posted on 04/27/2003 10:38:29 PM PDT by LdSentinal
RALEIGH -- The "Edwards for President" signs and bumper stickers were a dead giveaway.
Not only did Sen. John Edwards bypass the biggest hometown political gathering of the year to campaign Saturday in the early primary state of New Hampshire. But his aides distributed literature touting his presidential efforts, not his re-election campaign. In some ways, the 400 North Carolina Democrats who gathered for the annual Jefferson-Jackson Day fund-raising dinner seemed to begin moving beyond Edwards.
The buzz in the hallways and ballrooms of the North Raleigh Hilton was more focused on Democratic Gov. Mike Easley's re-election chances and which Democrat might run for Edwards' Senate seat.
Legally, Edwards could run for president and still seek re-election to the Senate. Most party experts, however, expect him to choose one or the other, and he has not yet tipped his hand.
On Saturday, the two Democrats most likely to run for his seat if he does not -- former state House Speaker Dan Blue of Raleigh and former White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles of Charlotte -- worked the crowds. So did U.S. Rep. Bob Etheridge of Lillington, who said he will not discuss the Senate race until Edwards makes a decision.
The Democrats gathered for a day of heavy politicking, food, and speeches by Easley, Virginia Gov. Mark Warner, Connecticut Congresswoman Rosa DeLauro and others.
Still recovering from the hangover of the Republican victories last November, the Democrats did their best to create some positive political karma. At a party breakfast, there were sunburst logos everywhere. And the loudspeaker played the old Beatles tune "Here Comes the Sun."
But whether the Democratic sun is rising or falling depends on such uncertainties as the state of the economy and President Bush's popularity.
Bush popular in N.C.
A new poll conducted for The News & Observer last week found that President Bush remains very popular in North Carolina. The survey found that 64 percent of those polled have a favorable opinion of the president, 26 percent have an unfavorable view, while 10 percent had no opinion.
The survey of 600 likely voters was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Md., on Monday through Thursday. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Republicans hope the president's popularity will provide some coattails for other GOP candidates, including U.S. Rep. Richard Burr of Winston-Salem, a candidate for Edwards' Senate seat.
But Burr is not very well known across the state, and if a matchup occurred today, Edwards would defeat Burr by a 49 percent to 35 percent margin, the poll found.
With the war in Iraq winding down, the economy is moving to the fore as the biggest worry among voters, according to the survey. State residents view it as far and away the most important issue facing both the state and the country.
While Democrats went out of their way to praise Bush's management of the war in Iraq, they were less complimentary of his handling of the economy.
"The president is riding high and the economy is sour," Etheridge said. "In North Carolina it is bitter. If the economy doesn't improve the president will not be riding nearly as high."
"He is very unpopular when it comes to the economy," said Betty Ann Knudsen, a former chairman of the Wake County Board of Commissioners. "There are a lot of people hurting. I think the same thing is going to happen to him as happened to his father."
Despite his popularity after the first Gulf War, the senior Bush was defeated by Bill Clinton in 1992.
GOP optimism
In an appearance at a fund-raiser in Winston-Salem last week, Karl Rove, the president's chief political adviser, said he believed the economy would turn around and he said the president is pursuing policies to cut taxes to stimulate growth.
"We have been hammered by 9/11, the corporate scandals and war," Rove said. "We need to create more jobs, and the way to do that is to give the economy a boost in its growth rate, and the president is committed to doing that."
If the voters don't seem to be blaming Bush for the troubled economy, neither are they blaming Easley, who also faces reelection in 2004.
While his ratings from voters have slipped slightly since January, Easley is in much better shape than most governors, many of whom are taking a beating because of the economy, according to pollster Del Ali. Forty-nine percent gave Easley excellent or good job ratings, while 45 percent gave him fair or poor ratings.
"Right now, his re-election prospects are pretty good and it's his election to lose," Ali said. "He's likeable. He's not polarizing. There are people who ideologically don't like him. But not enough to throw him out of office."
Easley's most prominent potential Republican rival right now appears to be former Charlotte Mayor Richard Vinroot, who lost to Easley in 2000.
Vinroot had a favorable rating of 38 percent and unfavorable rating of 27 percent with 35 percent having no opinion. By comparison Easley had a favorable rating of 46 percent, an unfavorable rating of 33 percent with 21 percent having no opinion.
The other potential Republican candidates were virtually unknown. State Sen. Patrick Ballantine of Wilmington had a favorable rating of 11 percent, Raleigh attorney Jim Cain 4 percent, and George Little of Southern Pines 1 percent.
Bless his heart...
not!
They have!
Congressman Richard Burr
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