Exporting Switzerland, The model Iraq needs to follow.

National Review Online ^ | 4/23/03 | Jonah Goldberg

[Burkeman1]

After a brief, almost bloodless war we have an ethnically and religiously divided nation. Mischievous neighbors on all sides can claim common cause with one or more of the major ethnic and religious groups vying for power. The largest ethnic faction has strong cultural ties to a powerful and expansionist neighbor, and is feared by other great powers nearby. Certain groups within the country are taking orders from religious authorities outside their borders in an attempt to impose a state reflecting their theology. Other nationalist radicals and many minorities are determined not to allow the creation of anything other than a secular state, because that's the only way to guarantee their own security.

Iraq 2003? Nope. Switzerland 1847.

[Burkeman1]

Not sure if I should laugh or cry after reading this.

[Burkeman1]

Any thoughts on this?

[Congressman Billybob]

This piece by Jonah Goldberg is spot on. There is only one element he didn't mention, which I think he would have if he thought it through. Not only should the new Iraq constitution forbid an official religion (as does the US Constitution), it should also require a supra-majority to amend it (as do the US and the Swiss constitutions).

What is the right of the Coalition to strongly recommend (same as force through, but it sounds bettr) a new Iraqi constitution? Let's crack open a history book here. How did Japan obtain its democratic constitution that forbids an offensive military capacity? Why they got it because the Allies won the war, and General Douglas MacArthur pushed it through.

All of this stuff is self-evident to anyone who knows how constitutions are created and maintained, and who has read the histories of post-war Germany and Japan. Plus, of course, the history of the Swiss who have gone 500 years without participating in a major war. Not a bad record at all when one considers the divisiveness of its populations, traditions, cultures and languages.

Congressman Billybob

Latest column, now up on FR, "Who's Next?"

Latest book(let), "to Restore Trust in America."

[Burkeman1]

Germany and Japan are in no way similiar to Iraq for several reasons.

First. Both Germany and Japan had extensive Democratic experience before their fascit governments. Iraq has had next to none.

Second. Both Germany and Japan were cohesive nations with hundreds, if not thousands of years of common cultural, religious, and ethnic bonds. That is not the case in Iraq.

Third. Both Germany and Japan were utterly crushed during WWII- morally, physically, and pyschologically and welcomed any order imposed on them. That is not the case in Iraq.

Fourth. The imposition of the goverenments of modern Germany and Japan was accomplished only by long term and extensive occupations. There seems to be no will for that in this Country.

Unless we are going to garrison Iraq with a hundred thousand troops for 30 years or more and undertake extensive civil administration and education programs for future Iraqi elites then Goldberg's Switzerland plan is a childish fantasy and shows how far National Review has fallen in allowing this travel reader teenager such a forum on it's name.

[Congressman Billybob]

Although you criticize on the basis of history, you have neglected to read what you refer to. Germany had some history of democracy, but Japan had none. Japan had a 1,500-year history of military dictatorships.

As for the size and length of occupation, MacArthur's experience in Japan answers both questions. Truman told Congress that 400,000 troops would be needed. MacArthur said only 200,000 were needed, and he was right. Since Japan then was about three times the size of Iraq now, about 60,000 troops will be required for post-war Iraq.

As for the time required, MacArthur moved Japan from a dictatorship to a fully funtional democratic republic in two years. The major withdrawal of American troops began then, and was completed in six and one half years. It ended at 60,000, which would be about 18,000 in Iraq. (Far less, I note, than the US currently has in Germany where they are neither useful nor properly welcome.)

As for the ethnic diversity in Iraq, which Japan did not have, that is the whole point of Jonah Goldberg's column. So, exactly as I say, combine the history of post-war Japan with 500 years of Swiss history. Throw in a dollop of Philadelphia, circa 1787, and there you have it. (BTW, Germany was not a nation but a collection of tribes, until shortly before 1900.)

History, as often happens, provides ample answers to a current problem. It just requires looking in the right places and asking the correct questions. Jonah was exactly right about the SINGLE subject his column addressed, the accommodation of ethnic diversity in Iraq. I am right about the other aspect discussed above.

Congressman Billybob

[Burkeman1]

You are wrong. Japan did have extensive democratic experience. It's freely elected prime minister was assassinated (by "right wing" types) in the 20's for appearing to "cave in" to US demands. This lead eventually to Tojo and military rule with the emporer as a figure head (though his role in the conduct of the war appears to be much greater than first acknownledged by either us or the Japanese.) Japan had far more exposure to Western culture and even accepted and embraced it and imitatated it than Iraq has ever had.

Iraq is not an Island. It is surrounded by countries that covet it's land and it's allegiance. I would say 100'000 might be an over estimate given modern technology. But we can't get away with less than 30 thousand like in South Korea.

[Burkeman1]

Sorry- he was assassinated in 1930

http://www.ingjapan.ne.jp/miurasn/history/senzen.htm

[Burkeman1]

Germany was not a "collection of tribes" before 1900. It was a system of principalities that made up the bulk of the Holy Roman Empire for hundreds of years. Tribalism had been dead in Germany for about a thousand years by 1900. The Franco- Prussian war of 1871 gave Prussia predominace among the weak states of Germany and unification came about 15 years later (before 1900).

[wimpycat]

I remember you mentioning the Swiss canton system several weeks ago, before Jonah Goldberg brought it up.

You know your history, and you've studied how constitutions are formed and maintained.

The raw material is there in Iraq to form some sort of stable and democratic government. Telling us it can't be done only makes us try harder.

[Burkeman1]

Raw material? What raw material? A thousand years of feaudalism? Of exposure to Judeo-Christian thought- to western thinking? Iraq is not even past the tribal stage which Europe was almost fully over a thousand years ago including Switzerland.

Who has the magic democracy wand? Does Jonah have it? I don't. If you wave it do mature democratic states appear over night? Mexico isn't even a real democracy and we are going to build one in Iraq?

[AFPhys]

A long article... a very good article... I wish I knew as much about the history as you both do ... I'll let you hash it out, but my initial read of all your comments and Goldberg's is that he has a good handle on this.

[MonroeDNA]

Spot on.

The only solution.

[Burkeman1]

That easy?

[wimpycat]

Ummmm...I'd rather discuss this with somebody who knows about this sort of thing.

But I will explain what I mean by raw material. I mean natural resources, a largely secularized, relatively well-educated people, with lots of exposure to western ideas. The British were there for awhile, remember. And a lot of Iraqis have Western educations. Unlike Afghanistan, which I personally think is a hopeless case, they have infrastructure--telephones, electricity, water, sanitation, factories, universities, some pretty decent highways, and they have the oil reserves to maintain it. That's what I mean when I say "raw material".

[nutmeg]

bump to read later

[Burkeman1]

Yes- Goldberg has a good handle. Comparing a mountain land that has been at the by ways of western thought for 1500 years to a flat land in the middle of the Mid East that has had extremely limited exposure to western thought. Not only that but is in the gripe of a religion that hates western culture and is still tribal and prone to religious wars that would rival the 1600's in Germany. Yeah - Goldberg has a good handle.

[Burkeman1]

Like the Saudi's I suppose?

[Verginius Rufus]

Actually, German unification was completed during the Franco-Prussian War: Wilhelm I was proclaimed German emperor on January 18, 1871, at Versailles, while the German armies were besieging Paris. The French National Assembly accepted the terms of peace March 1, 1871, and the peace treaty was signed May 10, 1871.

[Burkeman1]

Perhaps De facto - But I think De jure unification wasn't achieved until Bismark in the 1880's somtime.

[wimpycat]

No, I mean like Congressman Billybob.