Hong Kong SARS Turns Deadlier.

perloin

[per loin]

Hospitalized Hong Kong SARS (Chicom Flu) Cases

Time			Cases				Increase			Disposition														Dead as % of prior time
Day	Date		New	Week	Total		One Day	Week		Got well			Dead			Total Gone			Now In Hospitals			Total Hosp Days		Week	2 Week	3 Week
										Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%
Wed	03/12		10		10														10	10	100.0%	10
Thu	03/13		14		24		140.0%												14	24	100.0%	34
Fri	03/14		5		29		20.8%												5	29	100.0%	63
Sat	03/15		8		37		27.6%												8	37	100.0%	100
Sun	03/16		5		42		13.5%												5	42	100.0%	142
Mon	03/17		53		95		126.2%												53	95	100.0%	237
Tue	03/18		28	123	123		29.5%												28	123	100.0%	360
Wed	03/19		27	140	150		22.0%	1400.0%		5	5	3.3%	5	5	3.3%	10	10	6.7%	17	140	93.3%	500		50.0%
Thu	03/20		23	149	173		15.3%	620.8%		0	5	2.9%	1	6	3.5%	1	11	6.4%	22	162	93.6%	662		25.0%
Fri	03/21		30	174	203		17.3%	600.0%		2	7	3.4%	0	6	3.0%	2	13	6.4%	28	190	93.6%	852		20.7%
Sat	03/22		19	185	222		9.4%	500.0%		0	7	3.2%	2	8	3.6%	2	15	6.8%	17	207	93.2%	1,059		21.6%
Sun	03/23		25	205	247		11.3%	488.1%		0	7	2.8%	2	10	4.0%	2	17	6.9%	23	230	93.1%	1,289		23.8%
Mon	03/24		13	165	260		5.3%	173.7%		5	12	4.6%	0	10	3.8%	5	22	8.5%	8	238	91.5%	1,527		10.5%
Tue	03/25		26	163	286		10.0%	132.5%		2	14	4.9%	0	10	3.5%	2	24	8.4%	24	262	91.6%	1,789		8.1%
Wed	03/26		30	166	316		10.5%	110.7%		2	16	5.1%	0	10	3.2%	2	26	8.2%	28	290	91.8%	2,079		6.7%	100.0%
Thu	03/27		51	194	367		16.1%	112.1%		3	19	5.2%	0	10	2.7%	3	29	7.9%	48	338	92.1%	2,417		5.8%	41.7%
Fri	03/28		58	222	425		15.8%	109.4%		6	25	5.9%	1	11	2.6%	7	36	8.5%	51	389	91.5%	2,806		5.4%	37.9%
Sat	03/29		45	248	470		10.6%	111.7%		18	43	9.1%	1	12	2.6%	19	55	11.7%	26	415	88.3%	3,221		5.4%	32.4%
Sun	03/30		60	283	530		12.8%	114.6%		21	64	12.1%	1	13	2.5%	22	77	14.5%	38	453	85.5%	3,674		5.3%	31.0%
Mon	03/31		80	350	610		15.1%	134.6%		15	79	13.0%	2	15	2.5%	17	94	15.4%	63	516	84.6%	4,190		5.8%	15.8%
Tue	04/1		75	399	685		12.3%	139.5%		5	84	12.3%	1	16	2.3%	6	100	14.6%	69	585	85.4%	4,775		5.6%	13.0%
Wed	04/2		23	392	708		3.4%	124.1%		5	89	12.6%	0	16	2.3%	5	105	14.8%	18	603	85.2%	5,378		5.1%	10.7%	160.0%
Thu	04/3		26	367	734		3.7%	100.0%		9	98	13.4%	1	17	2.3%	10	115	15.7%	16	619	84.3%	5,997		4.6%	9.8%	70.8%
Fri	04/4		27	336	761		3.7%	79.1%		1	99	13.0%	0	17	2.2%	1	116	15.2%	26	645	84.8%	6,642		4.0%	8.4%	58.6%
Sat	04/5		39	330	800		5.1%	70.2%		8	107	13.4%	3	20	2.5%	11	127	15.9%	28	673	84.1%	7,315		4.3%	9.0%	54.1%
Sun	04/6		42	312	842		5.3%	58.9%		9	116	13.8%	2	22	2.6%	11	138	16.4%	31	704	83.6%	8,019		4.2%	8.9%	52.4%
Mon	04/7		41	273	883		4.9%	44.8%		11	127	14.4%	1	23	2.6%	12	150	17.0%	29	733	83.0%	8,752		3.8%	8.8%	24.2%
Tue	04/8		45	243	928		5.1%	35.5%		11	138	14.9%	2	25	2.7%	13	163	17.6%	32	765	82.4%	9,517		3.6%	8.7%	20.3%
Wed	04/9		42	262	970		4.5%	37.0%		4	142	14.6%	2	27	2.8%	6	169	17.4%	36	801	82.6%	10,318		3.8%	8.5%	18.0%
Thu	04/10		28	264	998		2.9%	36.0%		12	154	15.4%	3	30	3.0%	15	184	18.4%	13	814	81.6%	11,132		4.1%	8.2%	17.3%
Fri	04/11		61	298	1,059		6.1%	39.2%		15	169	16.0%	2	32	3.0%	17	201	19.0%	44	858	81.0%	11,990		4.2%	7.5%	15.8%
Sat	04/12		49	308	1,108		4.6%	38.5%		46	215	19.4%	3	35	3.2%	49	250	22.6%	0	858	77.4%	12,848		4.4%	7.4%	15.8%
Sun	04/13		42	308	1,150		3.8%	36.6%		8	223	19.4%	5	40	3.5%	13	263	22.9%	29	887	77.1%	13,735		4.8%	7.5%	16.2%
Mon	04/14		40	307	1,190		3.5%	34.8%		6	229	19.2%	7	47	3.9%	13	276	23.2%	27	914	76.8%	14,649		5.3%	7.7%	18.1%
Tue	04/15		42	304	1,232		3.5%	32.8%		14	243	19.7%	9	56	4.5%	23	299	24.3%	19	933	75.7%	15,582		6.0%	8.2%	19.6%
Averages			35	258			17.7%	197.0%		9		11.0%	2		3.0%	11		14.0%	27		88.8%			9.3%	18.6%	40.1%
										Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%	Day	Total	%
Day	Date		New	Week	Total		One Day	Week		Got well			Dead			Total Gone			Now In Hospitals			Total Hosp Days		Week	2 Week	3 Week
Time			Cases				Increase			Disposition														Dead as % of prior time

[_Jim]

Has this approached the figures for Legionnaires Disease yet?

[EternalHope]

Does Patricia Doyle think that the virulent form will disappear if the virus mutates to something less harmful? The only way a less virulant mutant may be beneficial is if it confers immunity to related viruses.

Excellent point, especially in light of Riri's post.

[aristeides]

Further from that last link:

The virus is highly contagious and is spread by aerosol, direct contact, and fomites. No latent infection or carrier state occurs. The disease is not fatal, and is generally subclinical. The rats may exhibit a porphyrin oculonasal discharge. The submaxillary salivary gland may be palpably enlarged due to sialoadenitis. Dacryoadenitis may cause exophthalmos, which can lead to keratitis and corneal ulcers. Symptomatic rats are at a greater risk for inhalation anesthesia.

[per loin]

Dunno.

[steve86]

Link to post about 3M Corporate Advisory (major manufacturer of the N95 particle masks). Notice that masks are being allocated to health workers and relatives of victims preferentially.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/893236/posts?page=4#4

[aristeides]

I think this may be highly significant: SDA (Sialodacryoadenitis):

This is a highly contagious virus that can lead to deadly secondary infections. SDA itself does not kill rats. It does, however, destroy the rat's natural immunities for up to a week and allow secondary infections, such as mycoplasma pulmonis, to devastate entire colonies.

[aristeides]

That could explain such things as the chlamydia found in China, and the paramyxoviruses found elsewhere in SARS victims.

[aristeides]

So it would be a kind of fast-acting AIDS.

[EternalHope]

You asked about potential failure of the Hong Kong medical system. This is from an article about the current situation in Hong Kong as of yesterday (i.e., Monday):

Doctors and nurses say the territory's health care system may collapse if more medical staff are infected. Health experts have said there are no longer enough intensive care beds nor isolation wards, sparking fears of more infections.

Most of the article quoted the current acting head of Hong Kong's medical system. (The actual head of the system is in the hospital with SARS.) It was unclear who the "doctors and nurses" quoted were, but the belief is widespread in Hong Kong that the system is near collapse.

At some point the quality of care will fall, raising the death rate. We may be at or near that point now (see the quote above).

If quarantine and isolation measures in the general community fail, the number of cases will rise dramatically. Since most patients thus far have needed hospitalization, and hospital stays seem to last for weeks even if ventilation is not required, many patients may find medical care is not available.

I don't know what happens then.

[aristeides]

Next paragraph from that link:

Incubation for SDA is normally 5 to 10 days. The two distinguishing symptoms of SDA are swollen lymph nodes, especially in the throat, and bulging and/or ulcerated eyes.

I wonder if incipient SARS in humans exhibits similar symptoms.

[per loin]

Have they found any link to this coronavirus in the SARS coronavirus?

[Fitzcarraldo]

bulging and/or ulcerated eyes.

Strange...are there any photos of patients with SARS?

[aristeides]

#51: SARS genome apparently similar to that of rat SDA.

[riri]

So it would be a kind of fast-acting AIDS

As per Mother Abigail some three weeks ago.

[aristeides]

Next paragraph from that link is alarming:

If you do determine that your rats have SDA, you also need to know that after all of the symptoms have disappeared, they can shed the virus for up to 4 months. That means that a complete quarantine needs to be done for 4 months after the end of all symptoms. No new rats in and no rats leave, along with no litters born. Even though the survivors will act perfectly normal after they finish showing all symptoms, they WILL still be shedding the virus. A complete and thorough quarantine is necessary to contain the virus and stop it from spreading.

[aristeides]

I haven't seen any pictures of humans with SARS. The link has pictures of rats with SDA.

[aristeides]

Next paragraph:

Recommended treatment: There is actually no treatment for SDA because it is a virus. However, it is very important that you aggressively treat the secondary infections. You should treat every rat for severe respiratory infections as soon as you know that your colony has been exposed to SDA to prevent as many deaths as possible. A good choice for treatment is a combination of Enrofloxacin (Baytril) and Doxycycline.

[Fitzcarraldo]

can shed the virus for up to 4 months

This is going to require a contact list be generated for every SARS patient.

[EternalHope]

If SARS acts the same way, then we need a complete quarantine on the survivors for four months.

Anybody wanna bet on THAT happening?

[Fitzcarraldo]

5. SARS may exist in persons as an asymptomatic disease

These must be tracked as well.