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Hong Kong SARS Turns Deadlier.
perloin

Posted on 04/15/2003 6:55:12 AM PDT by per loin

Hospitalized Hong Kong SARS (Chicom Flu) Cases
Time Cases Increase Disposition Dead as % of prior time
Day Date New Week Total One Day Week Got well Dead Total Gone Now In Hospitals Total Hosp Days Week 2 Week 3 Week
Day Total % Day Total % Day Total % Day Total %
Wed 03/12 10 10 10 10 100.0% 10
Thu 03/13 14 24 140.0% 14 24 100.0% 34
Fri 03/14 5 29 20.8% 5 29 100.0% 63
Sat 03/15 8 37 27.6% 8 37 100.0% 100
Sun 03/16 5 42 13.5% 5 42 100.0% 142
Mon 03/17 53 95 126.2% 53 95 100.0% 237
Tue 03/18 28 123 123 29.5% 28 123 100.0% 360
Wed 03/19 27 140 150 22.0% 1400.0% 5 5 3.3% 5 5 3.3% 10 10 6.7% 17 140 93.3% 500 50.0%
Thu 03/20 23 149 173 15.3% 620.8% 0 5 2.9% 1 6 3.5% 1 11 6.4% 22 162 93.6% 662 25.0%
Fri 03/21 30 174 203 17.3% 600.0% 2 7 3.4% 0 6 3.0% 2 13 6.4% 28 190 93.6% 852 20.7%
Sat 03/22 19 185 222 9.4% 500.0% 0 7 3.2% 2 8 3.6% 2 15 6.8% 17 207 93.2% 1,059 21.6%
Sun 03/23 25 205 247 11.3% 488.1% 0 7 2.8% 2 10 4.0% 2 17 6.9% 23 230 93.1% 1,289 23.8%
Mon 03/24 13 165 260 5.3% 173.7% 5 12 4.6% 0 10 3.8% 5 22 8.5% 8 238 91.5% 1,527 10.5%
Tue 03/25 26 163 286 10.0% 132.5% 2 14 4.9% 0 10 3.5% 2 24 8.4% 24 262 91.6% 1,789 8.1%
Wed 03/26 30 166 316 10.5% 110.7% 2 16 5.1% 0 10 3.2% 2 26 8.2% 28 290 91.8% 2,079 6.7% 100.0%
Thu 03/27 51 194 367 16.1% 112.1% 3 19 5.2% 0 10 2.7% 3 29 7.9% 48 338 92.1% 2,417 5.8% 41.7%
Fri 03/28 58 222 425 15.8% 109.4% 6 25 5.9% 1 11 2.6% 7 36 8.5% 51 389 91.5% 2,806 5.4% 37.9%
Sat 03/29 45 248 470 10.6% 111.7% 18 43 9.1% 1 12 2.6% 19 55 11.7% 26 415 88.3% 3,221 5.4% 32.4%
Sun 03/30 60 283 530 12.8% 114.6% 21 64 12.1% 1 13 2.5% 22 77 14.5% 38 453 85.5% 3,674 5.3% 31.0%
Mon 03/31 80 350 610 15.1% 134.6% 15 79 13.0% 2 15 2.5% 17 94 15.4% 63 516 84.6% 4,190 5.8% 15.8%
Tue 04/1 75 399 685 12.3% 139.5% 5 84 12.3% 1 16 2.3% 6 100 14.6% 69 585 85.4% 4,775 5.6% 13.0%
Wed 04/2 23 392 708 3.4% 124.1% 5 89 12.6% 0 16 2.3% 5 105 14.8% 18 603 85.2% 5,378 5.1% 10.7% 160.0%
Thu 04/3 26 367 734 3.7% 100.0% 9 98 13.4% 1 17 2.3% 10 115 15.7% 16 619 84.3% 5,997 4.6% 9.8% 70.8%
Fri 04/4 27 336 761 3.7% 79.1% 1 99 13.0% 0 17 2.2% 1 116 15.2% 26 645 84.8% 6,642 4.0% 8.4% 58.6%
Sat 04/5 39 330 800 5.1% 70.2% 8 107 13.4% 3 20 2.5% 11 127 15.9% 28 673 84.1% 7,315 4.3% 9.0% 54.1%
Sun 04/6 42 312 842 5.3% 58.9% 9 116 13.8% 2 22 2.6% 11 138 16.4% 31 704 83.6% 8,019 4.2% 8.9% 52.4%
Mon 04/7 41 273 883 4.9% 44.8% 11 127 14.4% 1 23 2.6% 12 150 17.0% 29 733 83.0% 8,752 3.8% 8.8% 24.2%
Tue 04/8 45 243 928 5.1% 35.5% 11 138 14.9% 2 25 2.7% 13 163 17.6% 32 765 82.4% 9,517 3.6% 8.7% 20.3%
Wed 04/9 42 262 970 4.5% 37.0% 4 142 14.6% 2 27 2.8% 6 169 17.4% 36 801 82.6% 10,318 3.8% 8.5% 18.0%
Thu 04/10 28 264 998 2.9% 36.0% 12 154 15.4% 3 30 3.0% 15 184 18.4% 13 814 81.6% 11,132 4.1% 8.2% 17.3%
Fri 04/11 61 298 1,059 6.1% 39.2% 15 169 16.0% 2 32 3.0% 17 201 19.0% 44 858 81.0% 11,990 4.2% 7.5% 15.8%
Sat 04/12 49 308 1,108 4.6% 38.5% 46 215 19.4% 3 35 3.2% 49 250 22.6% 0 858 77.4% 12,848 4.4% 7.4% 15.8%
Sun 04/13 42 308 1,150 3.8% 36.6% 8 223 19.4% 5 40 3.5% 13 263 22.9% 29 887 77.1% 13,735 4.8% 7.5% 16.2%
Mon 04/14 40 307 1,190 3.5% 34.8% 6 229 19.2% 7 47 3.9% 13 276 23.2% 27 914 76.8% 14,649 5.3% 7.7% 18.1%
Tue 04/15 42 304 1,232 3.5% 32.8% 14 243 19.7% 9 56 4.5% 23 299 24.3% 19 933 75.7% 15,582 6.0% 8.2% 19.6%
Averages 35 258 17.7% 197.0% 9 11.0% 2 3.0% 11 14.0% 27 88.8% 9.3% 18.6% 40.1%
Day Total % Day Total % Day Total % Day Total %
Day Date New Week Total One Day Week Got well Dead Total Gone Now In Hospitals Total Hosp Days Week 2 Week 3 Week
Time Cases Increase Disposition Dead as % of prior time


TOPICS: Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: sars
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To: EternalHope
Bump to myself. Many thanks for all the thoughtful and interesting comments on this thread...
41 posted on 04/15/2003 1:23:19 PM PDT by Judith Anne (God bless our soldiers with swift victory...)
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To: riri
You are right about having to pick a major at the wrong time in life. If I could just have it to do over again (knowing what I know now). I do not know enough to a have an opinion on if this is man made or not but I would really love to be a fly on the wall near a group a professional Bug Hunters. I bet they are all over this topic.
42 posted on 04/15/2003 1:24:37 PM PDT by CathyRyan
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To: shadeaud
I saw them on TV last week, and he said that he would go back to the same place to pick up another child. Really stupid.

And, as far as Texas goes, I don't know about statewide numbers, but there have already been two cases confirmed in Harris County (Houston) and one in Fort Bend County (just southwest of Houston).
43 posted on 04/15/2003 1:28:08 PM PDT by RedWhiteBlue
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To: riri
I'm not a doctor, but from what I've read a man made virus could go either way (harder, or easier, to cure).

However, the medical response to sequencing the genome seems to be pretty clear: The docs were disappointed.

Although the virus clearly seems to be from the coronavirus family, it did not show a clear link to any of the three coronavirus groups. Hence, they did not get a good read on where it originally came from. Nor did they get a good read on what animals might be useful for testing, nor did they get hints on what treatments and/or vaccine approaches might be most likely to work.

44 posted on 04/15/2003 1:32:53 PM PDT by EternalHope
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To: EternalHope
http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/abs_news_body.asp?section=National&oid=20835

The SARS mother's baby was born April 1, according to Hong Kong's Princess Margaret Hospital, which declined to release information on the baby's gender or condition.

The Chinese-language Ming Pao daily said the baby was not full-term but doctors decided the 34-year-old mother was so sick they should go ahead with the birth.

45 posted on 04/15/2003 1:34:48 PM PDT by CathyRyan
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To: EternalHope
Also today, the WHO hosted a telephone conference of doctors to discuss apparent ``superspreaders,'' SARS patients who have infected many other people. WHO experts said the discussion confirmed what they had long suspected -- that all the superspreaders were people infected very early in the SARS outbreak before doctors know what protective measures to take.

Could this be right? How did the 11 medical staff come down with it? They would have had to be exposed after they started to realize what they were up against. I am starting to think everyone is start to spin control. jmho

46 posted on 04/15/2003 1:40:36 PM PDT by CathyRyan
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To: CathyRyan
The Chinese-language Ming Pao daily said the baby was not full-term but doctors decided the 34-year-old mother was so sick they should go ahead with the birth.

We see many articles focused on the overall story, and almost nothing about the huge human tragedy.

47 posted on 04/15/2003 1:41:41 PM PDT by EternalHope
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To: blam
I'm hoping that since this isn't prime flu season and American cases can be quaritined that we will be able to dodge this bullet.

I'm praying anyway.

48 posted on 04/15/2003 1:47:02 PM PDT by delightfully dingy
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To: CathyRyan
I am starting to think everyone is start to spin control.

Me too.

They would certainly lie if they thought that was necessary in order to keep medical people from becoming afraid to treat SARS patients.

How much more can Hong Kong take before the quality of care starts to fall?

What happens if Hong Kong's medical system collapses?

49 posted on 04/15/2003 1:50:26 PM PDT by EternalHope
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To: EternalHope
SARS diagnostic test kit made available to members of WHO network
Scientists participating in the WHO collaborative network of laboratories have developed several diagnostic tests for SARS. These include a so-called “PCR” test, which allows detection of the distinctive genetic information of a virus.

Primers, which are the key pieces for a PCR test, were made publicly available by network laboratories on the open WHO web site (http://www.who.int/csr/sars/primers/en/ ) on 4 April. The primers have since been used by numerous countries around the world.

WHO scientists are now increasingly optimistic that the current PCR diagnostic test for SARS can rapidly be fine-tuned to a stage ready for roll out. Fine-tuning is needed because of important limitations in the ability of the current test to rule out the presence of coronavirus in SARS cases.

Yesterday, the Bernhard-Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine in Hamburg, Germany informed WHO that primers developed there are being made available, in the form of a ready-to-use kit, by a Hamburg-based biotechnology firm. Apart from ease of use, the test kit has the advantage of built-in quality control. WHO was further informed by the Hamburg Institute that the test will be offered at no cost to laboratories participating in the WHO collaborative network.

The network, which includes leading laboratories from ten countries, was set up last month to expedite identification of the SARS causative agent and, in parallel, to rapidly develop a diagnostic test.

Initial testing of the kit by network members is expected to quickly yield the data needed to assess the test’s performance, in comparison with primers developed by other WHO network laboratories. The ability to detect persons infected with the SARS virus at an early stage is a key measure of performance. WHO has been concerned that weaknesses in earlier experimental tests for SARS would allow too many virus carriers to slip past undetected. Existing PCR tests are very specific but may not detect all patients who are excreting coronavirus. Early and reliable detection of the SARS virus in samples will be of great assistance in helping health care staff determine which persons presenting with fever and other suspicion-arousing symptoms should be immediately isolated and managed according to strict procedures of infection control. Such procedures will, in turn, greatly reduce the likelihood that infection will spread to others.

Various WHO network laboratories are endeavouring to improve their PCR testing protocols and primers to increase their reliability.

The Bernhard-Nocht Institute is a member of the WHO network of collaborating laboratories. The rapid development of the test kit is one example of how scientific knowledge, being generated by dedicated scientists, can be rapidly translated into a practical control tool.

Explanation of so-called SARS “super-spreaders”
“Super-spreader” is a term that has been used to describe certain individuals with atypical pneumonia, now recognized as cases of SARS, who have been implicated in spreading the disease to numerous other individuals.

The phenomenon of a “super-spreader”, which is not a recognized medical condition, dates back to the early days of the outbreak. At that time, when SARS was just becoming known as a severe new disease, many patients were thought to be suffering from atypical pneumonia having another cause, and were therefore not treated as special cases requiring special precautions of isolation and infection control.

As a result, stringent infection control measures were not in place. In the absence of protective measures, many health care workers, relatives, and hospital visitors were exposed to the SARS virus and subsequently developed SARS. Since infection control measures have been put in place, the number of new cases of SARS arising from a single SARS source case has been significantly reduced.

When investigating current chains of continuing transmission, it is important to look for points in the history of case detection and patient management when procedures for infection control may have broken down.

China
The WHO team of experts in Beijing was today granted permission to visit military hospitals. The situation of SARS cases in certain military hospitals has been the source of numerous rumours concerning the magnitude of the SARS outbreak. The WHO team has so far visited one such hospital but hopes to visit others soon.

The decision by Beijing authorities is a welcome indication of China’s willingness to come to terms with the SARS outbreak on the mainland. Yesterday, China’s president Hu Jintao said on state television that he was “very worried” by SARS. The WHO Beijing team is expected to finish its preliminary investigation on the status of SARS in China tomorrow. Additional WHO teams will travel soon to other parts of China.

Update on cases and countries
As of today, a cumulative total of 3235 cases of SARS, with 154 deaths, have been reported from 22 countries. This represents an increase of 66 new cases and ten deaths compared with the previous day. Nine of the ten deaths occurred in Hong Kong SAR. One death was reported in Singapore.

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2003_04_15/en/

50 posted on 04/15/2003 2:00:22 PM PDT by CathyRyan
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Comment #51 Removed by Moderator

To: riri
If this holds up life is going to be a real b!tch for awhile.
52 posted on 04/15/2003 2:14:20 PM PDT by CathyRyan
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To: riri
Is it still true that NO ONE has made a full recovery? It may be possible to become repeatedly infected and it "may spread over the globe again-and-again" OMG!

I live in SE FL and I'm getting the same feeling as when there's a giant hurricane swirling just off the coast.
53 posted on 04/15/2003 2:14:38 PM PDT by IYAAYAS (first post! 4 year lurker)
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To: riri
This suggests that it will be quite difficult to manufacture a vaccine for SARS as well as to suggest that no one is permanently immune to the disease even if they have recovered from it.

It may suggest that it will be difficult to make a SARS vaccine that provides total immunity, but I think it also suggests it will be possible to manufacture one that provides considerable resistance, probably enough to save most victims' lives.

54 posted on 04/15/2003 2:18:17 PM PDT by aristeides
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To: riri
--"Again, I think that we shall see an unstable virus that will either mutate virulent or muate harmless with lower infectivity rate, lower mortality rate. It may be evidenced with symptoms no more than the common cold. I am hoping that it will mutate harmless, and it does appear that will be the case."--

Does Patricia Doyle think that the virulent form will disappear if the virus mutates to something less harmful? The only way a less virulant mutant may be beneficial is if it confers immunity to related viruses.

55 posted on 04/15/2003 2:18:27 PM PDT by Nebullis
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To: riri; All
Sialodacryoadenitis Virus, Rat Corona Virus.
56 posted on 04/15/2003 2:20:53 PM PDT by aristeides
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To: aristeides
but I think it also suggests it will be possible to manufacture one that provides considerable resistance, probably enough to save most victims' lives.

I was thinking along those lines. Let's face it-this thing can't, in it's current form be allowed to spread around the globe. At least not without ushering in a new dark ages.

I don't think I am being overly dramatic.

57 posted on 04/15/2003 2:23:33 PM PDT by riri
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To: EternalHope
What happens if Hong Kong's medical system collapses?

How would that happen - what would be the result?

58 posted on 04/15/2003 2:23:37 PM PDT by _Jim ( // NASA has a better safety record than NASCAR \\)
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To: IYAAYAS
Don't panic yet. :) There is a lot they do not know and if you read the older threads you will see that nothing is written in stone yet. This is new to everyone and a lot of what you read can be subject to change.
59 posted on 04/15/2003 2:24:21 PM PDT by CathyRyan
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To: riri; All
SIALODACRYOADENITIS VIRUS (SDAV) also referred to as Rat Corona Virus Infection:

CONTROL: Control requires very strict adherence to preventative measures, including procurement only of SDAV-free rats and adherence to strict barrier housing procedures. Prompt elimination of infected populations is essential to prevent spread of infection to other rodents. A less effective alternative is to place infected animals under strict quarantine, remove all young and pregnant females, suspend all breeding, and discontinue adding other susceptible animals for a period of 6-8 weeks until the infection has run its course and the virus has been eliminated naturally.

60 posted on 04/15/2003 2:24:41 PM PDT by aristeides
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