Posted on 03/26/2003 10:28:18 PM PST by LdSentinal
Republican strategists are looking to a small group of less than a dozen potential Senate candidates who could make or break their party's chances of retaining the GOP'S razor-thin Senate majority in the 2004 election.
If the potential GOP candidates decide to run, they could force otherwise safe Democratic incumbents like Minority Leader Tom Daschle (S.D.) and Minority Whip Harry Reid (Nevada) to invest heavily to defend their seats, and curtail their campaigning for other Democratic Senate hopefuls. But if they opt not to run, races in about a dozen states will likely fall into the noncompetitive column.
"A universe of about 15 potentially competitive races could shrink to half a dozen, based on the decisions of about 10 people in the country," said a Republican operative who is monitoring the situation.
The operative pointed to North Dakota, South Dakota, Nevada and Arkansas as among those states where GOP candidates could change the political landscape in the next 18 months. He also named New York and Wisconsin as states where prominent Republicans could turn what are shaping up as noncompetitive races into hot contests, should they mount Senate bids.
Democrats, for their part, have not unearthed many potential recruits who could mount strong challenges to safe GOP incumbents.
One notable exception is in Alaska, where former Gov. Tony Knowles could give freshman Sen. Lisa Murkowski a run for her money in the solidly Republican state.
Murkowski, whose father, Gov. Frank Murkowski, appointed her to fill his unexpired term, could be vulnerable to charges of nepotism and a primary challenge from the conservative wing of her party. Most of the potential GOP candidates have yet to commit to Senate campaigns, leaving GOP headhunters in the lurch as they scramble to find top-tier opponents in states that could be competitive next year.
"For all their bravado and confidence, Republicans have not landed any blockbuster recruits almost anywhere," said Brad Woodhouse, spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. "That's not to say that they won't, but they"ve had relatively little success attracting candidates to some of our strongest incumbents."
Indeed, Republican hopes of picking up Democratic Senate seats in conservative leaning North and South Dakota and Nevada rest largely on the decisions of three current or former GOP office holders.
In South Dakota, former Rep. John Thune is being courted to take on Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle; in North Dakota, former Gov. Ed Schafer is considering a challenge to Sen. Byron Dorgan, and in Nevada, Rep. Jim Gibbons is weighing a bid against Minority Whip Sen. Harry Reid.
Political observers contend that each of these Republicans has the ability to mount credible campaigns against Democratic incumbents, but only Gibbons has indicated an interest in running at this point.
At President Bush's urging, Thune abandoned plans to run for governor last year to challenge Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson, who won a narrow victory despite repeated campaign visits by President Bush and Vice President Cheney. The White House is now trying to persuade Thune to run against the popular Daschle, but Thune, who is now in the private sector, remains noncommittal.
Schafer, meanwhile, has said repeatedly that he does not want to move to Washington and has no interest in becoming a senator. But Republicans are holding out hope that White House political guru Karl Rove will persuade him to change his mind.
In Arkansas, Republicans are wooing Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Rep. Asa Hutchinson to take on freshman Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln. Huckabee is said to be leaning toward running, but Hutchinson, who was recently named undersecretary of border and transportation security at the new Department of Homeland Security, firmly denies any interest in the race.
Republicans are also waiting for word on whether six-term Rep. Jennifer Dunn (Wash.) will challenge Sen. Patty Murray, who won a second term in 1998 with 58 percent of the vote. If Dunn doesn't run, five-term Rep. George Nethercutt (R) has said he might step in.
Two other nationally prominent Republicans, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani (N.Y.) and Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson (Wis.) could also mount strong challenges against Sens. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Russ Feingold (D-Wis.). However, neither appears interested in running.
Democrats, on the other hand, lost what may have been their best opportunity to unseat Republican Sens. Sam Brownback of Kansas and freshman Jim Bunning of Kentucky when Rep. Dennis Moore (D-Kans.) and former Gov. Paul Patton (D-Ky.) withdrew their names from consideration. Political observers say their decisions have given Brownback, who was elected in 1996 to serve the remaining two years of Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole's (R) term and to a full term in 1998, and Bunning virtual free rides to reelection.
In Missouri, no Democratic candidates have stepped forward to oppose Republican Sen. Christopher Bond, who is running for a fourth term. But Democrats are hoping state Auditor Claire McCaskill abandons the notion of mounting a primary challenge to Gov. Bob Holden (D) to run for Senate instead. If she does, she would be considered a credible rival to Bond, who won his last two races with 53 and 52 percent of the vote, respectively..
In Alabama, Democrats are reaching out to ex-Gov. Don Siegelman in the hope that he will take on three-term Republican Sen. Richard Shelby, who is widely regarded as a strong contender for reelection.
And in Colorado, Democrats are talking to Rep. Mark Udall, who has said he will run only if two-term Republican Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell decides to retire, as he is reportedly considering.
"... they could force otherwise safe Democratic incumbents like Minority Leader Tom Daschle (S.D.) and Minority Whip Harry Reid (Nevada) to invest heavily to defend their seats."
Harry Reid won his last election by fewer than 500 votes ... as an incumbent. The demographics of Nevada are changing away from his labor/econazi base. Reid is on the hot seat and if the Republicans field a half-way decent candidate, "Senator Stonewall" is toast.
P.S. Daschle is so safe either.
The Dems are completely screwed. Their base, which has become extremely radical, has alienated all sorts of people to the GOP. Some of the complete leftist freaks are leaving the Dem party because it isn't liberal enough. The Dem party could very well be finished after the next election.
2004 Senate Races at Johnny Z's Place
lists all the races, the prospects, the contenders. The Pub seats are as up-to-date as the rats.
Well, the words don't mean a lot to me, but I do pay attention to the fundraising part. Thanks for the update.
I'm not sure why it's still being treated as a big question.
Well, we have to gossip about something until the primaries start! :-)
Well, no, I mean, why is it being treated as a question by news organizations? Mostly just The Hill, but still. Is there some other indication we're not hearing?
Oh, here we go, an article out yesterday where Campbell says he's Campaigning Hard for a Third Term
"Hell, everybody knows I'm running for re-election. I'm doing a big fundraiser (tonight) in Washington, D.C., and a big fundraiser in Denver on Friday. I've got the best job in the world right now representing the people in Colorado."
...
"What's more, Campbell, 69, has not formally declared his candidacy.
But the Colorado Republican explained that filing any candidacy papers now - one year before a 2004 bid - would force him "to just jump through so many hoops" with federal election officials.
Meanwhile, at least six signs show Campbell is planning an aggressive fight to keep his senate seat."
There is no way that Siegelman could beat Shelby, no way.
Well, he could . . . no . . .
Or maybe if he . . . hm, not that either . . .
But what if Shelby . . . no, still no chance.
I'm surprised the article didn't mention Mel Martinez in Florida. Alex Panelas would be a tough customer to beat in a senate race vs. either Mark "Country Club" Foley and Bill "I Ran For Senate And All I Got Was This Lousy Nickname" McCollum.
Our best bets are still South Carolina, Georgia, Nevada (I'm pretty sure Gibbons will run), and North Carolina.
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