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Fatal flaws in Saddam's gamble
The Daily Telegraph ^ | March 27, 2003 | Michael Smith

Posted on 03/26/2003 5:03:35 PM PST by MadIvan

Saddam Hussein's decision to send out armoured columns of the Republican Guard is an extremely high-risk strategy. He is relying heavily on the cover provided by the sandstorms to ensure that Apache attack helicopters and the 101st Airborne Division cannot join the fight.

But they should be the least of his problems. The conventional wisdom was that the Republican Guard had no choice but to remain dug in around Baghdad. If it broke out, it would be cut to pieces by the sheer weight of allied airpower.

Now that theory will be put to the test. Can the allied airpower take out the Iraqis on the ground, leaving American marines and infantry to mop up and move on to Baghdad?

One thing is for sure, the sandstorms should not stop the allied aircraft, with their smart bombs and precision-guide missiles, from attacking the Iraqi armoured columns.

The layer upon layer of aircraft overflying the battlefield are directed by sophisticated surveillance aircraft such as the Jstars and Awacs, which can see through weather.

They act as the field directors for the Central Command operations team back at the al-Sayliyah forward command centre in Qatar.

They are not the only airborne sensors to allow the allied commanders to see through the sandstorms. Unmanned aerial vehicles such as the Predator drone carry sophisticated infra-red imagery equipment.

The use of the Global Positioning Satellite system to direct bombs and missiles means that, as long as the intelligence puts the target in the right place, they can be sure of hitting their targets.

If all of that works, then the end result is likely to be similar to Saddam's attempt to wrench the initiative from the allies during the 1991 Gulf war when his forces crossed the Saudi border.

Of the three armoured columns he launched into the attack, only one made it, severely depleted. The other two were turned back by lightly-armed US marines and overwhelming coalition air power. The allies will be hoping that Saddam has again made a gamble doomed to fail.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events; US: District of Columbia; United Kingdom; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: blair; bush; gps; iraq; saddam; sandstorms; uk; us; war
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To: Camel Joe
Roads? We don't need no stinkin roads!

We might need roads if it rains or Saddam blows that dam and floods everything up to Kabala. That is a very large body of water behind that dam.

41 posted on 03/26/2003 7:32:01 PM PST by chainsaw
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To: cajungirl
I fear for our troops but everything they say makes them sound really confident. But it has also been said that maybe he is trying to get to our troops while they are tired. From what I see on Fox it has been real hard to get some decent sleep. This must have been figured into the plans, just not sure how. I wish we hadn't waited so long to get this started.
42 posted on 03/26/2003 7:38:56 PM PST by Aria
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To: Don'tMessWithTexas
It very much resembles similar mistakes by his role model Hitler as things began to cave in.
43 posted on 03/26/2003 10:13:53 PM PST by AmericanVictory
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To: Nick Danger
Since the tanks have tracks instead of wheels, roads are not critical. Support vehicles may be another matter, however.
44 posted on 03/26/2003 10:31:40 PM PST by GladesGuru (In a society predicated upon liberty, it is essential to examine principles - -)
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To: randita
"I'm starting to think that their commanders are free lancing and that there is not even a shred of an organized Iraqi battle plan."

I agree. I think Saddam is not in control of anything, probably not even his bowels if he is still alive. Their actions have not seemed to have any theater wide coordination but rather more like the actions of individual commanders. All the better for us.

45 posted on 03/26/2003 10:33:37 PM PST by JSteff
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To: MadIvan
This is the only way that Saddam is still making decisions:

And if that's the case, here's his end:


46 posted on 03/26/2003 10:52:13 PM PST by scott7278 (Peace had it's chance, now it's bombs away!)
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Comment #47 Removed by Moderator

To: agincourt1415; VaBthang4; Poohbah; Gunrunner2; struwwelpeter; Jeff Head; Stavka2; MadIvan
I am still totally flabbergasted at why Saddam (or his honchos) would be willing to send out the armored convoy against the US military! That is simply suicidal! Did he not learn from the first Gulf War what happens when US airstrikes trap a convoy by blowing the lead and hind vehicles and the blowing up the remaining tanks at leisure?

Does he not realize what the depleted uranium rounds of A-10s and the Hellfire missiles of Apaches can do?

Does he not realize that of all the things the US military excels at the most paramount is in destroying large well-defined targets (and an enemy convoy moving on a desert highway is extremely well defined). Didn't he learn a lesson from the Gulf War 1 'Highway of death?'

I know Saddam is kooky in the head .....but this is just too much even for him! It just does not make any sense ..........even Hezbollah and Hamas make much more 'sense' than this ....at least they believe they are getting a bevy of virgins when they die!

What do you guys think Saddam is thinking (although it may take an insane mind to understand this stratagem! I tried yesterday morning and ended up talkign to myself in the shower).

This is just plain stupid .......or maybe Saddam wants a further example of what Apache LongBow copters can do (unless, of course, the US Defense industry has been working on some 'mind control ray' that allows us to make the enemy do stupid things ......stupid things like setting off on a desert highway, with swamp on each side, driving toward the US encampments).

If no 'mind ray' is involved then what is Saddam expecting to accomplish by such an act?

48 posted on 03/27/2003 12:32:59 AM PST by spetznaz (Nuclear missiles: The ultimate Phallic symbol.)
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To: PoisedWoman
Everybody is getting execited about the Fedeyeen Saddam. They are just a bunch of criminals and thugs, and they will loose the will to fight after Saddam is gone.
49 posted on 03/27/2003 6:32:10 AM PST by agincourt1415 (UN gets smaller, and smaller and smaller)
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To: spetznaz
It wasn't much of a convoy after the B-52s got through with them.

Kafjee All over again.

Its good that Saddam is stupid, makes for less forces we have to dig out of Baghdad.

They have to use the Armor outside Baghdad (the Iraqi's). Or else its Urban warefare with RPGs.

50 posted on 03/27/2003 6:35:53 AM PST by agincourt1415 (UN gets smaller, and smaller and smaller)
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To: Don'tMessWithTexas
I think Saddam's mind was splattered all over a wall last week, like a bug hitting a windshield.
51 posted on 03/27/2003 6:41:10 AM PST by Pete'sWife (Dirt is for racing... asphalt is for getting there.)
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