Fatal flaws in Saddam's gamble

The Daily Telegraph ^ | March 27, 2003 | Michael Smith

[MadIvan]

Saddam Hussein's decision to send out armoured columns of the Republican Guard is an extremely high-risk strategy. He is relying heavily on the cover provided by the sandstorms to ensure that Apache attack helicopters and the 101st Airborne Division cannot join the fight.

But they should be the least of his problems. The conventional wisdom was that the Republican Guard had no choice but to remain dug in around Baghdad. If it broke out, it would be cut to pieces by the sheer weight of allied airpower.

Now that theory will be put to the test. Can the allied airpower take out the Iraqis on the ground, leaving American marines and infantry to mop up and move on to Baghdad?

One thing is for sure, the sandstorms should not stop the allied aircraft, with their smart bombs and precision-guide missiles, from attacking the Iraqi armoured columns.

The layer upon layer of aircraft overflying the battlefield are directed by sophisticated surveillance aircraft such as the Jstars and Awacs, which can see through weather.

They act as the field directors for the Central Command operations team back at the al-Sayliyah forward command centre in Qatar.

They are not the only airborne sensors to allow the allied commanders to see through the sandstorms. Unmanned aerial vehicles such as the Predator drone carry sophisticated infra-red imagery equipment.

The use of the Global Positioning Satellite system to direct bombs and missiles means that, as long as the intelligence puts the target in the right place, they can be sure of hitting their targets.

If all of that works, then the end result is likely to be similar to Saddam's attempt to wrench the initiative from the allies during the 1991 Gulf war when his forces crossed the Saudi border.

Of the three armoured columns he launched into the attack, only one made it, severely depleted. The other two were turned back by lightly-armed US marines and overwhelming coalition air power. The allies will be hoping that Saddam has again made a gamble doomed to fail.

[MadIvan]

Another "what were you thinking" moment in history. Good for us, mind you.

Regards, Ivan

[MadIvan]

Bump!

[ChadGore]

Re: The other two were turned back by lightly-armed US marines and overwhelming coalition air power. The allies will be hoping that Saddam has again made a gamble doomed to fail.

Read more about the The Epic Little Battle of Khafji

[Don'tMessWithTexas]

What could be going on in Saddam's sick mind?

[randita]

The action of these Iraqi divisions is so stupid, I'm starting to think that their commanders are free lancing and that there is not even a shred of an organized Iraqi battle plan.

[agincourt1415]

Remember what Schwartzkopf said: "He is neither a soldier, or a Commander schooled in the Art of Mobile Warfare"

[cajungirl]

Are they carrying chem and bio weaspons with them. If saddam's people are in baghdad they don't wanta set those things off close to them. Could they be sending them out for us????

[RWG]

When things are so stupid at first glance we should be really careful. The surrender of troops predicted before the action began had me considering what has happened, perfidy. If it really is stupid that can be discovered in good time. We should be really really wary until then.

[Vinnie]

Are they carrying chem and bio weaspons with them

I'll bet you are correct.

[Aria]

I think that is a good question.

[PoisedWoman]

But the question remains, how many Republican Guard and Saddam Fedayeen troops does he have? If 60,000 or so, sending out a few thou might not indicate much about his strategy.

[sam_paine]

We should be really really wary until then.

Reasonable thinking.

[cajungirl]

I have been asking this all over and no one is saying it on the news or elsewhere,,that is the only thing that makes sense to me. If he sends so many vehicles, one may get thru. And that coward saddam and his minions will not go down dead with the rest of baghdad,,they hide behind women. I hope the army has thought of this. It terrified me.

[Semper Paratus]

Are they carrying chem and bio weaspons with them

That would be too perfect. We can create a Highway of Death Part II and then move into Baghdad and our WMD evidence will sitting in the desert for HAMZAT to clean up next week.

[Milwaukee_Guy]

This makes no sense. We need to weigh all options and be very vigilant.

Another good post Ivan!

[lawnguy]

The action of these Iraqi divisions is so stupid, I'm starting to think that their commanders are free lancing and that there is not even a shred of an organized Iraqi battle plan.

This seems very plausible to me. Rather than sit there and get pounded every day, head south, and maybe have a chance to survive. The closer you get to the coalition lines, the shorter the sprint to get there to surrender before the thugs behind you can kill you. Maybe not a good plan, but possibly the only one they see that has a chance.

I would also not be surprised if the Iraqi leadership is trying to re-create a Highway of Death type visual for the networks to show back home. That's exactly what awaits these guys, and commanders have to know that if indeed there is any command left.

[goodnesswins]

Are we assuming Saddam is alive and running the show here?

[steve in DC]

Even in a sandstorm, their IR signatures will be tough to miss.

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

Maybe Saddam is so sick with peritonitis, he's not making the decisions any more!

[AFPhys]

Personally, I don't think there's a neuron firing in Saadumb's head at this time.