Posted on 03/25/2003 1:14:44 PM PST by BunnySlippers
Buzz in Baghdad Isn't Good For US, Iraqi Exiles Say
By Benoit Faucon
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
PARIS (Dow Jones)-- Exiled Iraqis in Europe have a message for U.S. troops closing in on Baghdad: Among Baghdad's residents, there isn't much momentum for a popular uprising to topple Saddam Hussein's regime, at least not right now.
Their view is based on telephone and email exchanges with friends and relatives still in Baghdad. The exiles tell Dow Jones Newswires that vital public services still seem to be in the grip of Hussein and his henchmen, and that some residents appear to be having a nationalistic response to the U.S. bombardment.
After Hussein appeared on television Monday, vowing to resist the U.S.-led operation, "One relative told me on the phone: 'We will resist'" said a European-based Iraqi Kurd who didn't want to be named. He found his relative uncharacteristically pro-Saddam. He frets that others are having a similar reaction to the nightly U.S. bombings.
A Paris-based Iraqi exile said relatives in Baghdad's Waziria district report that back-up water supplies are being tightly controlled by representatives of the ruling Baath party.
As a result, the exile said, residents will be completely dependent on the ruling party - and will take care to stay in its good graces - in case of severe, war-related water shortages.
Other relatives - who live in the district of Zaiuna, northeast of Baghdad - say members of Saddam's militia, as well as armed Baath party members, are very visible in the streets, according to the Paris exile. His relatives say they try to avoid going outside because some of these groups have a reputation for being violent.
An estimated 5 million Iraqis live outside of their home country; there are 150,000 to 200,000 Iraqi exiles in the U.K. alone. By and large, the exiles are united in their opposition to Hussein and in their support for a democratic government.
Less than a week into the war, the exiles say they're worried about the relative calm in Baghdad - at least during pauses between U.S. bombings of key military and government targets.
During the 1991 Gulf war, the exiles say, the city dissolved into relative chaos as residents took initial steps to oppose Hussein's government. They fret that Baghdad residents aren't motivated enough this time around to take similar steps to dismantle the ruling apparatus.
A London-based exile was surprised to receive this email from his brother-in-law in Baghdad on Tuesday: "We do expect that the war on our great country will proceed more." The writer runs an import-export business in al-Mansur, west of Baghdad.
The London exile notes that it's possible that the government is monitoring emails and that his relative, who has never been much of a Hussein supporter, could be censoring himself. Then again, the exile says, his relative's emotions might be genuinely divided between favoring a democratic government and resenting the U.S.'s military actions.
Indeed, the 1991 war, which failed to topple the regime, has made many Iraqis wary of the U.S.'s resolve this time, said one exile.
Added the Paris exile: In order to galvanize Baghdad residents against Hussein, the U.S. should invite armed Shiite or Kurdish groups who want to overthrow Hussein to join them on the ground - and thus transform a foreign operation into a more grassroots effort.
The exiles' worries could be eased in coming days if an anti-Hussein movement springs up. Indeed, a popular uprising might be taking place in the Southern city of Basra, according to media reports Tuesday.
-By Benoit Faucon, Dow Jones Newswires
benoit.faucon@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
03-25-03 1524ET- - 03 24 PM EST 03-25-03
At least not right now --- seems to be the operative phrase here.
This is why Iraqi exiles have been training in eastern Europe. A "native" army, exiles and Peshmerga, will fight in Baghdad when the time comes.
Exactly, but some people posting replies don't read the whole article ... (sigh)
Didn't have UN support. So much for Bush "bungling" diplomacy. He planned form the beginning to go it alone. No one to tell him when to stop.
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