Posted on 03/22/2003 3:13:24 PM PST by Axion
Focus on 'Battle of Basra' Misses Key Points
Mar 22, 2003
Summary
The Western media appear to be transfixed by the "Battle of Basra." Iraq's future will not be decided at Iraq's southern city, but to the northwest -- where major coalition military assets have crossed the Euphrates and are charging toward Baghdad.
Analysis
Western media are obsessing about the "Battle of Basra," where a substantial number of U.S. and British military assets have encircled the city and are methodically combing through the approaches to it to limit the capacity of any Iraqi units still in Basra from functioning.
The media focus is misplaced.
Basra, though the largest city in southern Iraq and a transit point for the nation's oil, is of no military significance in the current campaign. Even before sundown in Iraq on March 22, U.S. forces had sealed the city off from the rest of the country. Iraqi forces in Basra cannot break out or affect the wider war effort in any way. The city is hard up against river, marshes and Iran -- making it a stop on the road to nowhere, from a military perspective. Journalists embedded with coalition forces, however, do not seem to be aware of this and continue to file reports based on what is available to them.
Meanwhile, 200 kilometers up the Euphrates, there has been a media blackout. CENTCOM officials announced March 22 that the 3rd Infantry, 7th Cavalry and a brigade from the 101st Airbone had captured the city of an Nasiriyah and the Tallil airbase just to the south. It is from this region that the advance will cross the Euphrates and progress north-northwest to Baghdad.
The last news to trickle out from that location reached Stratfor's intel network at 6 p.m. Baghdad time (1500 GMT, 10 a.m. EST). The blackout is so complete that even the irrepressible Ted Koppel, embedded with the 3rd Infantry, hasn't made a so much as a peep.
But an Nasiriyah is critically important, since its bridges command access to the Iraqi interior and the roads to Baghdad.
The Pentagon itself broke the blackout in a press briefing at 4:30 p.m. EST (2130 GMT, 12:30 a.m. Baghdad time) by noting that coalition forces had moved 150 miles into Iraq, well past an Nasiriyah and the Euphrates. Media questions immediately switched to the whereabouts of several journalists missing near Basra.
Blackouts of this type are not uncommon. In the 1991 Gulf War, the famed "left hook" that shattered Iraq's military backbone was such an operation. Reporters assigned to such surprises are told when and where they can make reports, as well as when to remain tight-lipped. But when the story happens, they are in the heart of the action.
Even with the Pentagon's admissions, a great many questions linger. Did the 3rd Infantry Division take the 7th Cavalry with it? Or did the 7th proceed on its own further west to pincer Iraqi forces at Karbala? Is the 101st Airborne Division setting up shop for its Apaches at the Tallil airbase to support a massive thrust of the 101st, 7th and 3rd forces combined? Can the logistics in place support these options?
Despite these questions, the Pentagon disclosure -- unaccompanied so far by press filings -- indicates two things. First, coalition commanders feel secure enough in the situation in an Nasiriyah to risk a strong push into the heart of Iraq. And second, the press blackout with the 3rd, 7th and 101st is still in effect, meaning that whatever action coalition forces have planned could come as a nasty surprise to the Iraqi military.
It looks as if Mr. Koppel has drawn the long straw, and the executives at ABC are about to have a very good story.
But this is common sense. This is MacArthur's "Island Hopping" on the ground, bypassing strong points, cut them off---they already have no C&C, no food, no reinforcements. These Basra guys are a sideshow, and STRATFOR nails this one.
Plus, Fox's correspondent with the 3rd ID hinted that this was happening last night at around 9:30 pm.
In this morning's Pentagon news conference, some reporter kept harping about the "danger" of leaving "a boiling pot" behind to "endanger your lines of supply" as if a human wave of civilians was going to trek out of Basra and across the desert to cut of the supply line of an American armored division. No matter how much the spokesman said that the field commander must feel that the "risk" was justified, the reporter kept insisting that it was a "risk" not to capture Basra".
I kept wishing that the Pentagon spokesman would have used MacArthur as a historical example but he never did.
Here's a bit of historical trivia: Remember the 100,000 crack Japanese troops waiting to fight to the death at Rabaul, "The Impregnable Gibralter of the Pacific"?
After Mac Arthur bypassed them and left them cut off and stranded, they had to stay at Rabaul for two years after V.J. Day........It took an American loan before the Japanese government could afford to bring its boys home again from their humiliation on New Britain. :-)
Here's to their weekend writers...
They figure the A-10's are going to have a lot of fun!
Iraq really has an untenable position. A totally defensive posture can never win, since you need to spread your forces out to all possible attack points, yet attacks will always only come at one point -- breaking through and making all other defenders useless.
Sorry, but if they stream out of Basra they will be chewed up -- they lose all their advantage. They will be in motion and therefore not dug in. They will be away from civilian cover. They aren't coming out. It would be suicide.
The vast majority of the media are spring loaded and itching to find a glint, a hint of failure to latch onto regarding this campaign. Basra was simply to most convenient and closest place to start. The victory in Basra was never in doubt, but the media locked onto the resistance there as if it were Stalingrad reborn. I'm sure they're chomping at the bit to send out falsehoods and half truths flying when we finally move on Baghdad.
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