Posted on 03/19/2003 10:26:43 AM PST by jimbo123
Masses of Iraqi soldiers are deserting and senior members of President Saddam Hussein's ruling family circle are defecting as the countdown to a British and US invasion reaches its final hours.
In northern Iraq, on the border with Kurdistan, up to three-quarters of some Iraqi regiments have already fled.
In the mainly Shia Muslim south, Kuwaiti border guards are having to turn Iraqi soldiers back - telling them that they must wait until an attack begins before they can surrender.
And in a highly significant development in Baghdad a half-brother of President Saddam, who is regarded as the dictator's closest adviser, has fled in the past week to Syria.
Sab'awi Ibrahim Hasan Al-Tikriti, who is regarded in the United States as a possible war criminal, has sought refuge in Damascus. His flight from Baghdad suggests "fractures developing within the regime", according to a secret-level intelligence report which The Times has seen.
The reports, which are updated at least four times daily and distributed among senior British and US officers paint a picture of the dying hours of Saddam's 30-year iron grip on Iraq as it finally and dramatically falls apart, even before the British and US invasion gets underway.
"We are looking at wholesale desertions in some areas," said an intelligence officer.
"In the southern area, where there are six Iraqi divisions, fifty per cent of their officers are planning to surrender once the campaign opens.
"There's a lot of talk of waiting until the war starts, because of the danger to the officers' families. It's also been expressed that most want a quick and sudden or surprise attack, so that they have the excuse for not putting up greater resistance."
So poor is morale that Saddam ordered the deployment of Iraqi special forces officers in some areas to prevent regular officers from deserting.
The last report of such action was received within the last two days.
Relying on human intelligence - British and US special forces already within Iraq who are observing Iraqi military movements as well as establishing contacts - and covert aerial surveillance, it is estimated that 73 per cent of the regular Iraqi army in the south of the country has already made up its mind to surrender to British and US troops.
In one dramatic example, the reports note that a US "psy ops" - psychological operation - unit dropped leaflets on Iraq's 51st Mechanised Division on March 9 and March 10.
Four days later, 20 per cent of the division had deserted and was no longer in the area. "Many of those who have already gone are reporting that the rest are preparing to surrender," said an intelligence officer.
In northern Iraq between 43 and 75 per cent of regular soldiers, depending upon their regiment, have already fled. Iraqi tribal leaders in the region have also abandoned Saddam and defected to the Kurds in the Northern No-Fly Zone.
Two days ago in the town of Chamchamal, 50 kilometres (31 miles) from the Iraqi border with Turkey, soldiers attempted to surrender to the Kurdish civilian population. They were fired upon by their own side, causing civilians to scatter.
In and around Baghdad the desertion rate is lower, but even among Saddam's elite Republican Guard divisions - whose loyalty to their leader has been unquestioned until now - 23 per cent have deserted.
On the Iraq-Kuwait border, where British and US forces are now massing, Saddam's unwilling soldiers are being turned back on an hourly basis.
"We are seeing Iraqis trying to come across the border, saying they want to surrender, but we are having to turn them back and telling them that they must wait until the war begins," said an intelligence officer.
My guess would be so the force appears more of a coalition and less of an American force. Yeah, it's a stretch, but...
Ahhh, but the mean of the 52% of the 13% does or doesnt coincide with the numbers that didnt combine with the average....
You know?
Since the Mongols were willing and able to enforce the second option, word got around and some locations chose option 1. I admit I know of no specifics, and this could be "urban legend" but I've seen this cited in multiple books.
Ah, I see we've already sent in the lawyers...
Actually it's 72.57% but due to rounding ... oops, here comes another one. Forget it.
That was supposed to be a serious hypothesis.
well, 94.37639501% of all statistics are made up.
You would do well to remember that 100% of the data fall within an infinite number of standard deviations on either side of the mean.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.