Panhandle Democrat joins others eyeing Graham Senate seat

The Miami Herald ^ | 3/14/03 | Peter Wallsten

[LdSentinal]

TALLAHASSEE - A conservative North Florida Democrat is close to opening a campaign for next year's U.S. Senate race, adding geographical intrigue to a field of hopefuls that so far hails exclusively from the party's South Florida base.

U.S. Rep. Allen Boyd, a ''blue dog'' Democrat from the rural Panhandle district once represented by Vietnam war hero and one-time gubernatorial candidate Pete Peterson, said Thursday that he would decide by June whether to begin fundraising to replace U.S. Sen. Bob Graham.

Graham is expected to formally announce his presidential campaign next month.

Boyd would join Miami-Dade County Mayor Alex Penelas, state Sen. Walter ''Skip'' Campbell of Tamarac and U.S. Reps. Peter Deutsch of Pembroke Pines and Alcee Hastings of Fort Lauderdale in the field of possible Democratic candidates.

''I clearly offer an alternative,'' said Boyd, 57, speaking by telephone from his Washington office.

Boyd, like the other Democrats who have begun meeting with strategists and building campaigns, said he would immediately halt his candidacy if Graham decides to run for reelection rather than seek the White House.

GRAHAM SILENCE

Graham has repeatedly declined to say whether he would step back into the Senate race should his presidential bid falter in the flurry of early primaries next spring.

But the prospect of an open Senate seat -- a rarity that has occurred only twice in modern Florida history -- is proving too tasty to pass up for ambitious Democrats and Republicans alike, especially given the national implications of the narrow margin between the two parties.

On the GOP side, U.S. Rep. Mark Foley of West Palm Beach and former Orlando-area Rep. Bill McCollum are already campaigning. Sources say the White House, worried that neither could mount a strong campaign, is trying to convince Housing Secretary Mel Martinez, a former elected chairman of Orange County, to run.

McBRIDE ANALOGY

Democratic strategists said Thursday that Boyd's candidacy could resemble that of Tampa lawyer Bill McBride, who ran for governor last year touting himself as the lone moderate with appeal among conservative Democrats and Republicans who tend to back the GOP nominee in statewide races.

McBride used that argument to win the backing of the party hierarchy, raise millions from labor unions and upset former U.S. Attorney General Janet Reno in the primary.

Boyd, a white-haired Vietnam veteran and former state legislator from the Jefferson County town of Monticello, has staked out a conservative voting record since winning election to Congress in 1996.

He backed GOP efforts to shut down the National Endowment for the Arts and supported a ban on flag-burning along with a ban on so-called ''partial-birth'' abortions -- votes that helped him rack up a ''party unity'' rating of less than 70 percent, according to Congressional Quarterly's analysis.

Deutsch, in contrast, has voted with his party leadership more than 80 percent of the time, according to CQ.

Those ideological differences, Democrats said Wednesday, would further illustrate the conflicts that continue to challenge party leaders looking for ways to rebuild their struggling organization.

STRATEGIC OBSTACLES

Strategists said Boyd would face obstacles against rivals better known in the state's South Florida fundraising hub.

While he could tap into the same agricultural interests that have long backed his campaigns, such as sugar companies and citrus, Boyd is relatively obscure in Florida's major media markets, which are far from his mostly rural district.

What's more, party operatives are skittish now about the theory that a moderate from outside South Florida is the ideal candidate in the wake of McBride's failure to excite the base and his crushing loss to Gov. Jeb Bush.

''He will not sell in South Florida, and we need a candidate who will sell statewide,'' said Campbell, who backed McBride in the governor's race.

[ken5050]

Graham's being pushed out of his senate seat..

[AuH2ORepublican]

I hope Boyd runs. He probably won't win the nomination, and will split the moderate Dem vote with Alex Penelas, thereby giving the nomination to ultra-liberal Peter Deutsch (who will get whipped by whoever the GOP nominee is). And with Boyd not running for re-election, we can pick up his House seat, in which Bush got 51% of the vote in 2000 and probably will get 55% in 2004.

[fieldmarshaldj]

That might be a tough seat to get, though. The last Republican to sit in it was Bill Grant (1987-91), he was elected to it as a 'Rat and switched parties after being reelected but when he ran as a Republican, he was defeated by Pete Peterson in '90. Peterson might come back, and would probably be favored to win (assuming outgoing liberal 'Rat Tallahassee Mayor Scott Maddox doesn't want to run).

[jmaroneps37]

Boyd'd candidacy reminds me of what harry truman once said: "Give people a choice between a real Republican and a fake one and they'll pick the real one every time."
First, this guy won't win the rat primary because of the "primary problem". This is the one that conservative rats and leftist Republicans face all of the time. In a rat primary the most anti American scum slither out and vote. Boyd can't win a Florida rat primary. Please don't tell me about mc lawyer beating jack boot janet, he painted himself as a leftist and mc awful spent zillions of ratbucks to get him the nomination. There have been huge numbers of new registrants in Florida since 2000 and ( as mc lawyer found out) the vast number of them registered Republican. McCullom will beat any rat, even graham.

[Princeliberty]

Petterson will probably run for Governor in 2006
and not run for old set ever again.
Maddox may run. The district is more Republican
now had years old yellow dogs dying off.
I would predict the Republicans would pick
it up unless they have a bad candidate.

[BillyBoy]

>> I hope Boyd runs. He probably won't win the nomination, and will split the moderate Dem vote with Alex Penelas, thereby giving the nomination to ultra-liberal Peter Deutsch <<

Bwahahahaha. That would be fun. On the other hand, if Penelas drops out, Boyd could win both the primary and the general by doing the ol' "folksy centrist southern Democrat" rountine and then voting like a socialist once he gets in office (see John Edwards and Max Cleland for more info.)

My dream 'RAT candidate would be Alcee Hastings. I heard he's interested in running. Imagine if the lunatic "Bush is Hitler" far-left wing of the FL Dems nominated him! It would be like 89-11% in favor of any Republican.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Alcee Hastings would be every Republican's dream candidate. Not only is he further left than Janet Reno, he's an old corrupt federal judge who was actually impeached and removed from office by a Democratic Congress in the 1980s. Your 89-11% scenario may not be too far of the mark. But I don't think Alcee can get the nomination, and if I'm not mistaken he hasn't been as gung ho about running recently.

Deutsch is richer than Croesus when it comes to campaign cash, and the only one who could stop him is Penelas if no other moderate jumps in (Penelas could win the largely moderate and conservative Democrat vote up north, and his South Florida and Hispanic roots would help him compete with Deutsch in his home turf). As I said before, if Boyd jumps in, I think it will split the moderate vote and give the primary to Deutsch. And even if Boyd runs and Penelas drops out, I don't believe that Boyd will be able to win the primary, since he's largely unknown outside the Panhandle and is too conservative for South Florida Democrats. But you're right that if Boyd somehow wins the Democratic nomination he would be tougher to beat than Deutsch.

[EllaMinnow]

I'm in Boyd's district. The man is an idiot, but this is deep yellow dog territory.
I think if Boyd gives up his congressional seat, Scott Maddox will run - and win.

Graham is tearing up the Florida dems with his presidential ambitions. He won't give up his senate seat or his senate candidacy unless he's sure he's got the dem presidential slot.
He'll never get the dem nomination, and meanwhile all the other dem senate wannabees are stuck in neutral. All we need is a good candidate, and we can reach Florida's usual status of a split in the senate. 1 Republican, 1 democrat.

In other words - we won't pick up Boyd's district, but we stand a good chance of picking up a senate seat. IF we field a strong candidate and acoid the vicious primary that the dems are in for.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Well, I'm not from Boyd's district (or Florida for that matter), so feel free to disregard my opinion, but I have to tell you that after the latest redistricting I don't believe that the 2nd District is as yellow-dog Democrat as it used to be. George W. Bush got 51% of the vote within the current lines, so I don't think that its voters are that averse to voting for a Republican anymore. And the district has certainly been trending our way, and may be a solid GOP seat within the next decade. While I agree that it won't be a slam dunk for the GOP to win an open-seat congressional race in 2004, it is certainly a winnable district, especially with W. at the top of the ballot (and most especially if the Democratic Senate nominee is liberal South Floridian Peter Deutsch).

As for the Senate race, I agree with you that we can win the seat if we run a good candidate. But it would be tougher to win if Penelas gets the Dem nomination and cuts into our traditionally heavy margins among Cuban-Americans, not to mention his ability to attract swing non-Cuban Hispanics. That's how Clinton carried the state in 1996 (although I still think Dole would have beat him had Perot not run). So Boyd running for the Senate and splitting the moderate Dem vote with Penelas---thereby throwing the nomination to the ultra-liberal Deutsch---could make it a lot easier for the GOP nominee to pick up the Senate seat.

As for Graham, he's not running for President, he's running for VP, so I don't think he'll run for the Senate again. The Dem nominee will not make the same mistake Gore made of selecting a running mate whose election as VP would give the GOP another Senate seat (just like Rowland could have selected LIEberman's replacement, Jeb would pick Graham's replacement if he miraculously was elected VP). That's my personal opinion, although it sure beats me why Graham has been so coy as to whether or not he's running for re-election.

Going back to Boyd, so given the fact that Boyd's entry into the race will cost the moderate Penelas more votes than the liberal Deutsch (a weaker general-election opponent), and that it's clearly easier for the GOP to win the 2nd District against Maddox or some other Democrat than against the entrenched incumbent Boyd, I think we should support Boyd's entry into the Senate race. We improve our chances in both races.

[EllaMinnow]

I agree with you completely about Penelas. Deutsch would be a joke of a candidate, ditto for Alan Boyd, and especially for Alex Sink aka Mrs. McBride.

But I have learned to NEVER underestimate Scott Maddox and his influence. Last month, he took over the campaign of a Tallahassee city commission candidate. He poured in mucho dollars from the Florida democratic party, and made ads starring himself instead of the candidate. His candidate won, with the result being that Tallahassee for the first time has a college student on the commission. Not just any college student, but an activist from Florida A&M's student government.
And I'm surrounded by people who voted for an ultra-liberal brat because he's a democrat, and because Scott Maddox gave him a gloss of legitimacy.

[flrepublican1]

I doubt Peterson runs for Governor in 2006, he'll be 70 and long gone from voters minds in 06. Jim Davis and Rod Smith are the Democrats looking at the DEM race for Governor along with possibly Robert Wexler.