First 80 degree day forecast for Iraq - March 5th! [too hot for chemical suits]

weather.com ^ | February 24, 2003

[Future Useless Eater]

Detailed Local Forecast For Baghdad, Iraq

Click for updates

      Last Updated Monday, February 24, at 5:45 AM Local Time (Sunday 9:45 PM EST)

Today: Sun along with patchy clouds. High 74F. Winds SE at 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Some clouds. Low 53F. Winds SW at 5 to 10 mph.

Tomorrow: Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 62F. Winds W at 10 to 20 mph.

Tomorrow night: A few clouds. Low 43F. Winds SW at 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday: Chance of showers. Highs in the low 60s and lows in the mid 30s.

Thursday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 50s and lows in the low 30s.

Friday: Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the low 60s and lows in the low 30s.

Saturday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the low 60s and lows in the low 30s.

Sunday: Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the low 70s and lows in the low 30s.

Monday: Partial sunshine. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the mid 40s.

Tuesday: Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the mid 40s.

Wednesday: Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid 40s.
[that's Wednesday, March 5th]

For education and discussion only. Not for commercial use.

---

The first 80 DEGREE DAY has been forecast for Iraq - Wednesday March 5th!

It could quickly get too hot in Iraq for our guys to wear their chemical suits during the day!
... You know, for all those chemical weapons the cheese-eaters say that Saddam does not have.

[Future Useless Eater]

February 2003

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Baghdad  SunSet  SunRise

24   9%  +8.4hrs

25   7%  +9.2hrs

26   5%  +10.2hrs

27   3%  +11.2hrs

28   2% Blackout

01   1% Blackout

5:59pm   6:30am

March 2003

02   0% Blackout

03   0% Blackout

04   1%  -11.2hrs

05   2%  -10.2hrs

06   3%  -9.3hrs

07   5%  -8.4hrs

08   7%  -7.4hrs

6:04pm   6:22am

09   9%  -6.4hrs

10 11%  -5.4hrs

11 13%  -4.5hrs

12 15%  -3.5hrs

13 20%  -2.6hrs

14 26%  -1.8hrs

15 34%  -1.0hrs

6:10pm   6:12am

16 44%  n/a

17 55%  n/a

18100%  n/a

6:15pm   6:03am

Legend:       (%)Luminance compared to a Full Moon         (Starlight alone is 1/2 of 1% of a Full Moon) Nighttime TOTAL BLACKOUT period       ( + ) hours AFTER sunset when Moon is behind the Earth, OR       ( - ) hours BEFORE sunRISE when Moon behind the Earth (Times not adjusted for 25 minutes of civil twilight after sunset or before dawn) (Luminance figures are approximate based on an average lunar cycle. Figures are even less when the moon is lower in the sky ... and crescent moons don't get very high in the sky until after daybreak) .

It's now daylight - Monday morning in Baghdad.

In just a few days we will have a prime nighttime 'opportunity' - SEVEN nights in a row with NO MOON or virtually no moon all night long.

The lunar calendar to the right should help explain this. The NEW MOON occurs on the date shown as March 2nd, because that date represents the EVENING of the 2nd AND MORNING OF THE 3RD.

There will be clearly FOUR nights of total blackout, by anyone's count. That is because the moon will be behind the Earth ALL NIGHT LONG on FOUR Baghdad nights. [The moon rises and sets in 10.5 hours, but the winter nights are still 12.5 hours long] The four dates are shown as Feb 28, Mar 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.

One night before those, on the evening/morning of Feb 27/28, the moon will be just a tiny sliver, and will appear for only the first hour before sunrise. If we could measure the intensity of that moon under ideal circumstances (like from South America at mid-day), it would appear 3% as bright as a Full Moon.

But in Baghdad, in the hour before sunrise, it will only barely be noticeable, and will be less than ONE PERCENT of the brightness of a Full Moon. That, plus it will be washed out by dawn's early light.
So that nighttime will have 'virtually' NO Moon ALL night long.

The same is true for the two evenings/mornings: March 4th/5th, and 5th/6th, except in reverse. The tiny crescents on those nights will be barely noticable in the dusk of sunset. Those tiny crescents will be followed by undisturbed pitch blackness ALL NIGHT long.

(Besides, who wants to go bombing in the first hour or so after sunset... Most Iraqi's are still awake, and it's still too light out from the sun.)

[timestax]

President Bush waited too long!

[stalin]

Bush is acting way too much like his father. It's not looking good.

[Future Useless Eater]

...not sure why that calendar came out so badly...

February 2003
Sun	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	Baghdad  SunSet  SunRise
	24   9%  +8.4hrs	25   7%  +9.2hrs	26   5%  +10.2hrs	27   3%  +11.2hrs	28   2% Blackout	01   1% Blackout	5:59pm   6:30am
March 2003
02   0% Blackout	03   0% Blackout	04   1%  -11.2hrs	05   2%  -10.2hrs	06   3%  -9.3hrs	07   5%  -8.4hrs	08   7%  -7.4hrs	6:04pm   6:22am
09   9%  -6.4hrs	10 11%  -5.4hrs	11 13%  -4.5hrs	12 15%  -3.5hrs	13 20%  -2.6hrs	14 26%  -1.8hrs	15 34%  -1.0hrs	6:10pm   6:12am
16 44%  n/a	17 55%  n/a	18100%  n/a					6:15pm   6:03am
Legend:       (%)Luminance compared to a Full Moon         (Starlight alone is 1/2 of 1% of a Full Moon) Nighttime TOTAL BLACKOUT period       ( + ) hours AFTER sunset when Moon is behind the Earth, OR       ( - ) hours BEFORE sunRISE when Moon behind the Earth (Times not adjusted for 25 minutes of civil twilight after sunset or before dawn) (Luminance figures are approximate based on an average lunar cycle. Figures are even less when the moon is lower in the sky ... and crescent moons don't get very high in the sky until after daybreak) .

[Squantos]

During DS/DS I we wore MOPP gear (training sets) in 100 plus degree heat in "evenings" to try an acclimate ourselves during PT shuffles. It was tough but could be done with proper hydration and prior physical conditioning.

Funny thing about the gulf region is that say in the UAE and Oman regions the prevailing winds came off the Gulf Waters and the heat was accompanied by the extream levels of humidity. In Kuwait, Saudi and eventually Iraq the temps were a dry heat that was tolerable. Kind of like Las Vegas on the 4th of July dry heat.

I was deployed to the region on 5 August 90 and didn't leave till June of 91. The temps in the region as I have memory of them stayed around 65-80 degrees till April.

Good work on the collection of data.... Seems the 28th of February is a date to watch.

Stay Safe !

[Diddle E. Squat]

Oh please. Its not going to be 80 degrees at night in April, and the guys aren't going to be in them for 24 hours straight. Further, the stage of the moon is not likely to be much of a factor when going into Baghdad. If chemical warfare is the greatest threat, than our attack is far more likely to be timed to coincide with a rainstorm or high winds than with moonlight. And the chem threat will only be much of a one for the initial invasion, the threat shouldn't last more than a week or two at most.

Starting sometime in March or April should be sufficient, and it almost certainly won't be before the 8th.

[American Soldier]

Unfortunately, we are pretending to delay for diplomatic reasons when actually the delay is for logistical reasons.

Bush would probably LIKE to attack today if possible, but we simply won't have all the gear in theatre for another week or two (or three). Thus he acts like we're still serious about diplomatic efforts because it's better than stating publicly that we don't have enough boots on the ground to strike yet.

[Cold Heat]

Yup! I concur.

I would add, that we really would like to knock this SOB and entourage off and get that regime change without war. We would still need to intervene in order to shake the place down and help with law and order.(a roundup)

I still hope that we get that project done before we go in, but we will go in soon in any event.

[america-rules]

Chem Weapons only work when you use them against a mass of troops in one area long enough for the stuff to linger. My Bet is we won't be lingering in one place too long until we go in to Bagdad !

Also, the suits are not used against gas. They are used against nerve agents that have to be deployed as a mist to be effective. We can go days in just masks and we do have mobile decon tents that are pressureized to allow us to take off the mask to eat, etc..

I could write 20 pages on this but the point is don't worry about the chem weapons.

[timestax]

Yeah, like, what are we going to do with all those Iraqi prisoners, like how we going to feed them all. And you know they are going to stink!

[SShultz460]

Submit UN resolution that Iraq is in material breach of 1441 Monday, vote on it Tuesday, War starts Thursday.

It's on.

[John Jamieson]

March third is the exact 12th aniversary of Iraq agreeing to comply with all UN resolutions. I can see the speech now: "Exactly 12 years ago, Iraq agreed .......... 12 years is long enough. The end starts now."

[KickRightRudder]

Thanks for putting my mind at ease. Did you see the defector on 60 minutes speaking about the chemical "belt" Saddam is putting around Bagdad. That report worried me. Your knowledge allays those worries.


ps--you were wise not going to New York.

[Petronski]

Weather forecasts are well-nigh worthless beyond 72 hours. And yet it is nerve-wracking to wonder how much longer our forces must wait, because it will get hot eventually.

[xm177e2]

President Bush waited too long!

We will have time if we launch the attack in three days. How feasible that is, I do not know.

[xm177e2]

the stage of the moon is not likely to be much of a factor when going into Baghdad

We're not going to send ground troops into Baghdad during the early stages of the invasion!

[Free the USA]

http://www.freerepublic.com/perl/bump-list

[Free the USA]

My understanding is that very hot dry weather results in very rapid evaporation of chemicals which reduces the amount of time a chemical suit would be worn.

[Diddle E. Squat]

No, it is a possibility.

[stalin]

Remember ; a lot of the people in this admin are the same turds that stopped well short of victory last time - including Powell.

The last thing that we need is regime change right now like the milk toast consummate politicians in the admin are hoping for. If that were to happen we would not occupy Iraq properly. The French and Russians would likely wind up with more boots on the ground than we do under UN leadership.

The French would have won. We would be the losers.