Iraq war will cost $1 trillion (gloom and doom alert)

drudgereport ^ | Feb 21.2003

[Jimmyclyde]

Short Iraq war would cost world $A1 trillion - study

FRIDAY , 21 FEBRUARY 2003

CANBERRA: A short war with Iraq could cost the world 1 per cent of its economic output over the next few years and more than $A1 trillion ($NZ1.1 trillion) by 2010, Australian researchers said in a report yesterday.

A long war could more than triple the costs, they said.

The compounding effects of rising oil prices, extra budget spending and economic uncertainty could cut $A173 billion from the world economy in 2003 alone, said the researchers, Reserve Bank of Australia board member Warwick McKibbin and Centre for International Economics executive director Andrew Stoeckel.

Basing their projections on two scenarios - a short war with a year or two of rebuilding or a long war lasting five years with five years of rebuilding - the researchers said conflict would sideswipe private investment and probably push equity prices even lower.

"The conclusion is that even a short war will have a significant and noticeable impact on the world economy, but on current projections of world growth would not lead to recession," they said.

"Even a short war could cost the world 1 per cent of GDP (gross domestic product) per year over the next few years."

While the United States was expected to bear the brunt of the war costs, Britain, Australia and several European countries would have to boost budget spending and Japan would probably be a large contributor to the rebuilding phase, the report said.

"Iraq and some other Middle Eastern countries are assumed to spend considerably on defence, represented by an increase in defence spending by Opec," it added.

Oil prices were projected to initially rise 90 per cent above a baseline of $US25 per barrel. Under a short-war scenario, the price spike would quickly dissipate and the world oil price would fall below $US25 after the war was over, the report said.

It warned that the investors' uncertainty would compound the rise in oil prices, even in a short-war case.

"Altogether, there could be a drop of investment in the United States of over 8 per cent below baseline in 2003 and 2004. The fall is less for Japan and Europe, given the assumptions for their contribution to a war and rebuilding."

[Jimmyclyde]

The sky is falling the sky is falling!!!

[AmericaUnited]

What crap! When oil hits $10 a barrel because Iraqi oil is pumping full blast in a year or two, that will add trillions of dollars to the world economy.

[Diddle E. Squat]

Today's propaganda minute is brought to you by the letters 'B' and 'S'.

[Momaw Nadon]

Attack on Iraq Betting Pool

[chachacha]

Imay be wrong on the exact figures but, I think two very tall buildings and rtelated costs at least 30% of that figure.

[Jimmyclyde]

..and by the number trillion.

[RCW2001]

hmmmm...its come down some. Somebody was talking 1.6 tr a couple weeks ago as the high end cost.

[Constitutional Patriot]

How much would we pay to avoid another 911? I'm sure it would be whatever it costs to wage the war against Saddam/terrorism.

[Arkinsaw]

how much was the impact from 9/11?

New York City alone is around 95 billion right now.

[concerned about politics]

It's better than starting a few hundred needless social programs that would end up costing 10 times as much over my lifetime and 1000 times as much for my kids.

So what's the problem? National defence is the only cost we should have anyway!

[marvlus]

A .22 caliber would be sufficient if one of his generals would do it.

[Grampa Dave]

Everytime the Opecker Princes and Opecker Islamofacist thugs like Soddomite and the Murdering Mullahs created a fake shortage of Opecker Oil, they plunged the whole world into recessions and depressions. When our stock markets crashed, they bought low and sold at high prices during our economic recovery times. Then, they created another phoney shortage of oil to crash the markets again to buy low again and repeat the cycle.

When Soddomite becomes parts and pieces, the citizens of Iran will do the same the Murdering Mullah Facists in charge of Iran. That will be the end of the economic terror brought forth by the Opecker Princes and Opecker Islamofacist Thugs. Then we will have an economic boom without the Opecker Princes waiting to crash it.

The Kyoto protocols would have been a lot more expensive and recession causing than when we whack Soddomite.

[concerned about politics]

The Kyoto protocols would have been a lot more expensive and recession causing than when we whack Soddomite.

Right on, Gramps!

[Hillarys Gate Cult]

and by the number trillion.

Democrat talking point alert! The new word is "TRILLION". Hopefully it won't be as annoying as "gravitas" was.

[RobbyS]

Good grief!!!