AR POLL: US Senate (Tim Hutchinson (R) 43% v Mark Pryor 51% )

katv.com ^ | 11/02/2002 | Arkansas News Bureau/Stephens Media Group

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	US Senate

 

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If the election for the US Senate were held today, would you vote for...

Tim Hutchinson (R)	Mark Pryor (D)	Undecided
43 %	51 %	6 %

This is the fourth survey conducted by ORA on this race since August. The three previous surveys were conducted for the Arkansas News Bureau/Stephens Media Group:

	August	September	October 1
Hutchinson (R)	41 %	40 %	43 %
Pryor (D)	51 %	50 %	48 %
Undecided	8 %	10 %	9 %

Hutchinson and Pryor are virtually tied in name recognition. Pryor's favorable rating is higher than Hutchinson's and Pryor also has a lower unfavorable rating than Hutchison:

	Favorable	Mixed	Unfavorable	Don't recognize or can't rate	Total Name Recognition
Hutchinson (R)	52 %	4 %	35 %	9 %	91 %
Pryor (D)	60 %	4 %	29 %	7 %	93 %

Pryor leads Hutchinson in the First, Second and Fourth Congressional Districts, while Hutchinson leads Pryor in the Third District:

	First District	Second District	Third District	Fourth District
Hutchinson (R)	36 %	37 %	58 %	42 %
Pryor (D)	57 %	57 %	36 %	54 %
Undecided	7 %	6 %	6 %	3 %

Hutchinson and Pryor are virtually tied in the support they receive from their respective parties. Hutchinson furthermore leads among Independents:

	Democrats	Independents	Republicans
Hutchinson (R)	8 %	51 %	85 %
Pryor (D)	86 %	44 %	9 %
Undecided	6 %	6 %	5 %

Pryor leads among voters with a high school education or less while the two are virtually tied among voters with some college education. Hutchinson leads among college graduates:

	Some HS	HS Grad	Some College	College Graduate
Hutchinson (R)	34 %	34 %	48 %	52 %
Pryor (D)	63 %	58 %	47 %	44 %
Undecided	4 %	8 %	6 %	4 %

Pryor leads among voters 35 and older while Hutchinson leads among younger voters:

	18-35	35-44	45-54	55-64	65+
Hutchinson (R)	61 %	38 %	44 %	47 %	37 %
Pryor (D)	34 %	56 %	50 %	52 %	55 %
Undecided	5 %	6 %	7 %	1 %	8 %

Pryor leads among retirees and white collar workers, while Hutchinson leads among white collar voters:

	White Collar	Blue Collar	Retired
Hutchinson (R)	51 %	43 %	39 %
Pryor (D)	45 %	53 %	54 %
Undecided	4 %	4 %	7 %

Pryor leads among voters whose yearly incomes fall below $50,000 per year and Hutchinson leads among voters with incomes $75,000 or more. The two are virtually tied among the $50,000-$75,000 per year income group:

	<$20K	$20-30K	$30-40K	$40-50K	$50-75K	>$75K
Hutchinson (R)	34 %	41 %	44 %	47 %	48 %	56 %
Pryor (D)	60 %	52 %	50 %	51 %	49 %	39 %
Undecided	6 %	8 %	6 %	2 %	3 %	5 %

Hutchinson and Pryor are virtually tied among whites while Pryor holds a substantial lead among African-Americans:

	White	African American
Hutchinson (R)	47 %	15 %
Pryor (D)	48 %	75 %
Undecided	5 %	9 %

Pryor leads among both men and women:

	Male	Female
Hutchinson (R)	44 %	42 %
Pryor (D)	51 %	51 %
Undecided	5 %	7 %

Methodology
Opinion Research Associates, Inc., of Little Rock, interviewed 500 randomly selected registered voters in Arkansas who said they were planning to vote in the November General Election.
Interviews were conducted by telephone during the evenings of October 23-25, and on Saturday October 26, 2002.
Interviews were conducted statewide and divided equally among the state's four congressional districts, with 125 interviews completed in each district.
The margin of error for a random sample of 500 registered voters = ±4.5 percentage points, at the 95% level of confidence. This means that the 95% of all random samples of this size will produce percentages that can be expected to vary, as a result of random variation, by no more than 4.5 percentage points from the true population parameters.
Percentages calculated on smaller subsamples will have a somewhat larger margin of error depending upon the size of the subsample. For example, the margin of error for each of the congressional districts is approximately ±9 percentage points.
Occasionally percentages may not add up to 100% because of rounding error.

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[comebacknewt]

You can't imagine how strongly I am pulling for you to be right on this.

[BlackRazor]

Is anybody suppose to take seriously a poll put out by a TV station?

The TV station didn't conduct the poll. They're just the ones who hired the pollster.

[churchillbuff]

Standing up for marital fidelity is getting harder, because so many men have dumped their wives and want to shout down anyone who disagrees with such behavior. It's kind of like trying to be pro-life - so many women have had abortions that they have an emotional commitment to the abort cause - and will shout down pro-lifers. As more men leave wives and families - and more women get abortions - it's harder and harder to make a case for olde social and moral standards, because the pool of people who refuse to listen, or who respond only with anger, grows.

[AmishDude]

Something is wrong here. Hutch is winning the Indy vote, but is losing overall. They are about the same with their party votes...so obviously they over sampled the RATS.

Ding, ding, ding. We have a winner.

[AmishDude]

Stand up for morality.

Put an ally of Bill Clinton in office.

[PhiKapMom]

I have the same reaction. All of a sudden divorce is a dirty word when it comes to Hutchinson in AR.

Divorce is one thing I dont' believe is anyone's business since none of us can walk in their shoes. If someone hasn't been there, they have no idea what made a marriage go bad! And you certainly don't take it out on a politician when it happens on a daily basis to all sectors of the Country!

[churchillbuff]

Looks like the promise-breaker's getting his comeuppance. Why did he have to run again after dumping his wife? Why couldn't he step aside and let someone without baggage be the nominee? BECAUSE HE'S SELFISH AND SELF-CENTERED!

[Diddle E. Squat]

I dunno, seems to me that punishing the country and continuing the destruction of our juducial system(not to mention delaying by at least 2 years, if not more, most major conservative initiatives) because one wants to 'send a message' a rather selfish act. Not to mention short-sighted, self-defeating, and a pyrrhic victory.(look it up)

[Diddle E. Squat]

DUMP YOUR WIFE, LOSE AN ELECTION.

As opposed to get enraged, and throw the election?

[conservative_2001]

Looks like the promise-breaker's getting his comeuppance. Why did he have to run again after dumping his wife? Why couldn't he step aside and let someone without baggage be the nominee? BECAUSE HE'S SELFISH AND SELF-CENTERED!

Once again, I ask you for your evidence. People with integrity don't drop dirty accusations, then fail to prove them.

People with integrity also don't post the same response 5 times on one thread.

[deport]

People with integrity also don't post the same response 5 times on one thread.

LOL.... Don't strain him too hard. Hell he can't even fly his state flag.

[Lando Lincoln]

I share your frustration and I'm obviously not as close to the circumstances in AR as you. And, I believe the right has a higher moral standard than the left. However, I wish the electorate could see that the greater good can be served by voting Hutchinson. But, we are where we are.

[conservative_2001]

Frankly, I'm getting really fed up with all these so-called "conservatives" who come in here and attack Tim Hutchinson. They make vicious accusations, then fail to provide evidence of their charges, no matter how many times I ask them.

I've questioned every "conservative" I've seen who has accused Tim of having an affair, asking them for their evidence of this charge, and every single one of them runs from me.

They come here to bash his integrity, but don't have the integrity themselves to prove their charges. Real conservatives know better.