AR POLL: US Senate (Tim Hutchinson (R) 43% v Mark Pryor 51% )

katv.com ^ | 11/02/2002 | Arkansas News Bureau/Stephens Media Group

[KQQL]

>

The Spirit of Arkansas      

  Search KATV
  
 news internet

 News

 Weather

 2002 Vote

 Sports

 Around The Home

 ARSN

 7 On Your Side

 Daybreak

 Good Morning Arkansas

 KATV Forums

 Programming

 HealthCheck

 Healthy Baby

 Recipes

 Local Entertainment

 Community Events

 Inside KATV

 Movie Reviews

 JobCenter

 Member Profile

 Classifieds

 Advertise On 7

 Games

 Contact KATV

  Home Page

 

	US Senate

 

Return to index page

If the election for the US Senate were held today, would you vote for...

Tim Hutchinson (R)	Mark Pryor (D)	Undecided
43 %	51 %	6 %

This is the fourth survey conducted by ORA on this race since August. The three previous surveys were conducted for the Arkansas News Bureau/Stephens Media Group:

	August	September	October 1
Hutchinson (R)	41 %	40 %	43 %
Pryor (D)	51 %	50 %	48 %
Undecided	8 %	10 %	9 %

Hutchinson and Pryor are virtually tied in name recognition. Pryor's favorable rating is higher than Hutchinson's and Pryor also has a lower unfavorable rating than Hutchison:

	Favorable	Mixed	Unfavorable	Don't recognize or can't rate	Total Name Recognition
Hutchinson (R)	52 %	4 %	35 %	9 %	91 %
Pryor (D)	60 %	4 %	29 %	7 %	93 %

Pryor leads Hutchinson in the First, Second and Fourth Congressional Districts, while Hutchinson leads Pryor in the Third District:

	First District	Second District	Third District	Fourth District
Hutchinson (R)	36 %	37 %	58 %	42 %
Pryor (D)	57 %	57 %	36 %	54 %
Undecided	7 %	6 %	6 %	3 %

Hutchinson and Pryor are virtually tied in the support they receive from their respective parties. Hutchinson furthermore leads among Independents:

	Democrats	Independents	Republicans
Hutchinson (R)	8 %	51 %	85 %
Pryor (D)	86 %	44 %	9 %
Undecided	6 %	6 %	5 %

Pryor leads among voters with a high school education or less while the two are virtually tied among voters with some college education. Hutchinson leads among college graduates:

	Some HS	HS Grad	Some College	College Graduate
Hutchinson (R)	34 %	34 %	48 %	52 %
Pryor (D)	63 %	58 %	47 %	44 %
Undecided	4 %	8 %	6 %	4 %

Pryor leads among voters 35 and older while Hutchinson leads among younger voters:

	18-35	35-44	45-54	55-64	65+
Hutchinson (R)	61 %	38 %	44 %	47 %	37 %
Pryor (D)	34 %	56 %	50 %	52 %	55 %
Undecided	5 %	6 %	7 %	1 %	8 %

Pryor leads among retirees and white collar workers, while Hutchinson leads among white collar voters:

	White Collar	Blue Collar	Retired
Hutchinson (R)	51 %	43 %	39 %
Pryor (D)	45 %	53 %	54 %
Undecided	4 %	4 %	7 %

Pryor leads among voters whose yearly incomes fall below $50,000 per year and Hutchinson leads among voters with incomes $75,000 or more. The two are virtually tied among the $50,000-$75,000 per year income group:

	<$20K	$20-30K	$30-40K	$40-50K	$50-75K	>$75K
Hutchinson (R)	34 %	41 %	44 %	47 %	48 %	56 %
Pryor (D)	60 %	52 %	50 %	51 %	49 %	39 %
Undecided	6 %	8 %	6 %	2 %	3 %	5 %

Hutchinson and Pryor are virtually tied among whites while Pryor holds a substantial lead among African-Americans:

	White	African American
Hutchinson (R)	47 %	15 %
Pryor (D)	48 %	75 %
Undecided	5 %	9 %

Pryor leads among both men and women:

	Male	Female
Hutchinson (R)	44 %	42 %
Pryor (D)	51 %	51 %
Undecided	5 %	7 %

Methodology
Opinion Research Associates, Inc., of Little Rock, interviewed 500 randomly selected registered voters in Arkansas who said they were planning to vote in the November General Election.
Interviews were conducted by telephone during the evenings of October 23-25, and on Saturday October 26, 2002.
Interviews were conducted statewide and divided equally among the state's four congressional districts, with 125 interviews completed in each district.
The margin of error for a random sample of 500 registered voters = ±4.5 percentage points, at the 95% level of confidence. This means that the 95% of all random samples of this size will produce percentages that can be expected to vary, as a result of random variation, by no more than 4.5 percentage points from the true population parameters.
Percentages calculated on smaller subsamples will have a somewhat larger margin of error depending upon the size of the subsample. For example, the margin of error for each of the congressional districts is approximately ±9 percentage points.
Occasionally percentages may not add up to 100% because of rounding error.

Return to index page

Privacy Policy, Terms of Use

Copyright ©2002 KATV, LLC.   Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.

Problems, Questions, Comments? Contact the Webmaster
KATV adheres to the ICRA RATING SYSTEM for parental control

[mountainfolk]

Where is the rest of your song? The one about abandoning his grown children? Is Tim Hutchinson the only divorced candidate for office that you are pounding on? If so, why? Bunches of sinners running for office. Better get on the stick and tell them about God not wanting them in office. So many threads---so little time.

[Lando Lincoln]

BTW, I have a nice quote from Churchill in my profile. One of my favs.

[mysonsfuture]

This is part of an orchastrated dem effort to lie about the numbers in an effort to keep republicans home. Won't work, Terry.

[Pining_4_TX]

I hope the answer is that Republicans, unlike Dems, actually have principles and morals. That is the difference, and it we lose it, we become just as sleazy as they are.

[Arkinsaw]

Looks like the promise-breaker's getting his comeuppance. Why did he have to run again after dumping his wife? Why couldn't he step aside and let someone without baggage be the nominee? BECAUSE HE'S SELFISH AND SELF-CENTERED! (Just ask the wife he dumped). Don't tell me that the way somebody behaves toward their wife and family doesn't say something about how they'll behave in the political realm. CHARACTER COUNTS. If he would put selfishness ahead of his vows to his wife, why WOULDN'T he put selfishness ahead of the interests of the Republican PArty?

It took a 150 years to get a Republican Senator in Arkansas. I guess its worth another 150 year wait in order to punish Mr. Hutchinson for getting a divorce. After all, its just six years of a liberal Mark Pryor and at least two with Daschle in control of the agenda in Washington. A small price to pay for Mr. Hutchinson to get his comeuppance.

[Arkinsaw]

Ok answer this question for me...Why would people vote for Mark Pryor, knowing what that will mean for us, because Hutchinson got a divorce? Are they that stupid? I don't get it.

They aren't voting for Pryor. They are just staying at home on election day. Which is, of course, the exact same thing.

[comebacknewt]

I have no evidence, and I really don't even care which one of us is right about the adultery.

The thing that angers me is that his actions look like they are going to cost us his seat and maybe control of the Senate. In a word -- selfish.

[BoomerBob]

The reason is that, in general, the GOP holds themselves to a higher standard than Democrats (one of the reasons why I am a Republican).

Hutchinson is a former pastor, and that is why, in Arkansas, his divorce is such a significant event. Couple that with his role in Clinton's impeachment and it's not difficult to see why Hutchinson is down.

We can gripe all we want about this poll but the fact is, most polls have consistently shown him down by three to five points. I don't doubt that this poll fairly represents the state of the race.

C'mon guys, let's not let partisianship fog our ability to critically assess the GOP chances this Tuesday. As of today, I'm guessing we have about a forty percent chance of re-taking the Senate.

[conservative_2001]

I hope the answer is that Republicans, unlike Dems, actually have principles and morals. That is the difference, and it we lose it, we become just as sleazy as they are.

So anyone who gets a divorce is a bad person? I take it you didn't vote for Reagan or Dole.

[Lady In Blue]

Is anybody suppose to take seriously a poll put out by a TV station? If Hutchinson is so far behind,why is GWB and Cheney wasting their time by campaigning in Arkansas for him?

[for-q-clinton]

Something is wrong here. Hutch is winning the Indy vote, but is losing overall. They are about the same with their party votes...so obviously they over sampled the RATS.

[comebacknewt]

Sadly, there are many more RATS in AR than Pubbies or Indys.

[HoundsTooth_BP]

The thing that angers me is that his actions look like they are going to cost us his seat and maybe control of the Senate. In a word -- selfish.


I believe this is what the media and dems are telling us, and I do not believe them. Like some of the others on here I believe the news and dems lie to us all the time. I know some things to be fact, and they spin it to suit themselves instead of telling the whole story.

I know the networks and local stations always spin their news stories in the dems favor. I see it everyday and when you live in the area you can see it more clearly.

[Lady In Blue]

I just peaked at the weather forecast for Arkansas and I noted with a certain amount of glee that "rain and storms"are forecasted for Tuesday!

[for-q-clinton]

Yeah, but that's counting the dead and infirmed. I doubt that the station called those people

[AndyTheBear]

I am not a resident of Arkansas, however I do know a little about statistics (BS in math), and the methodology as it is described is full of holes. They do not have the 95 confidence factor except in an abstract dreamland--great for determining the likely results of a similar poll, not neccesarily including the actual election.

[for-q-clinton]

In South Dakota, they are prepared to get their supreme court to step in and keep polls open if there are people waiting to vote (either because of weather, long lines, or they don't have enough votes yet). What type of court does Arkansas have? I bet it's filled with RATS

[Lando Lincoln]

I'm with you - just trying to stay awake. I am grateful that Republicans generally don't share that psuedo-intellectual moral equivalence of the left.