Posted on 10/31/2002 1:39:29 PM PST by BlackRazor
KGW poll: Governor's race a dead-heat
10/31/2002
By JIM PARKER and VINCE PATTON, KGW Staff
With just 5 days until the November election, a new KGW poll of likely Oregon voters shows the race for governor is a dead-heat between Democrat Ted Kulongoski and Republican Kevin Mannix.
Mannix has pulled to within four points of Kulongoski, our poll shows. When factoring in the survey’s margin of error, the race is a statistical tie.
The poll conducted for Northwest NewsChannel 8 by Riley Research Associates surveyed 604 likely Oregon voters. It was conducted from Oct. 23 to Oct. 28 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent. A likely voter is one who has voted in at least two of the last four elections.
46% of those polled favored Kulongoski, compared to 42% for Mannix.
“It looks very close, way too close to call,” said pollster Mike Riley.
“I’m not surprised this is a tight race,” noted KGW political analyst Len Bergstein, “This is a typical open governor’s seat race.”
While Libertarian Tom Cox received just 3% voter support, observers believe it’s possible he could play the role of spoiler by taking away votes that otherwise might go to Mannix.
“Three percent of the vote is a very important margin right now,” according to Riley. “Mannix would do well if he could get Cox’s votes.”
Bergstein agreed, noting that “three percent could be very determinitive.”
“There’s no doubt that Cox has added a dimension to this race.”
Only 7% of voters currently remain undecided on the race, a significant drop from a previous KGW poll just one week ago.
Mannix appears to have been the beneficiary, drawing himself into a neck-and-neck race with Kulongsoki – whose lead has dwindled from prior KGW polls.
“The undecideds have shrunk enormously,” said Riley. “As that number has shrunk, a slightly larger portion has gone to Mannix.”
This latest KGW poll does reveal one key strength though for Kulongoski that could help deliver him a victory on election day if voter turnout is low.
Those voters identified as most likely to cast ballots (having voted in all four of the past four elections) favor Kulongoski over Mannix by 51% to 40%.
“Turnout is going to be the ultimate decider of this election,” Riley concluded.
If you want on or off my poll ping list, let me know!
Oregon is 100% vote by mail. It may be too late for Mannix to catch up as many votes have already been mailed back.
Let me predict that the free medical care measure (23) will fail miserably. Most Oregonians do not want to get involved with this. And speaking as an Oregonian, we are all working hard to take this state back from the libs. Let the scum go to Canada.
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