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KGW poll: Oregon governor's race narrows
KGW.com ^ | 10/01/02 | JIM PARKER and VINCE PATTON, KGW Staff

Posted on 10/02/2002 4:03:31 PM PDT by BlackRazor

KGW poll: Oregon governor's race narrows

10/01/2002

By JIM PARKER and VINCE PATTON, KGW Staff

A new KGW poll shows Democrat Ted Kulongoski’s lead over Republican Kevin Mannix in the Oregon governor’s race has dwindled to single digits – setting the stage for what analysts predict will be a fight to the finish in November.

At the same time, voters also expressed reservations about whether either candidate has what it takes to get Oregon’s slumping economy moving again.

The poll conducted for Northwest NewsChannel 8 by Riley Research Associates surveyed 600 likely Oregon voters. It was conducted from Sept. 23 to Sept. 28 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

The poll results show the race has narrowed -- with Kulongoski’s once double-digit lead reduced to only 6 percentage points.

“The headline is that Mannix is closing the gap,” said pollster Mike Riley.

“Kulongoski apeared to be coasting on his lead,” Riley added. “Well, it looks like that lead has now diminished to where I expect a fight from now until the end.”

Kulongoski drew the support of 42% of those voters surveyed, while Mannix garnered 36%. One percent of voters surveyed expressed support for Libertarian candidate Tom Cox.

20% of voters remain undecided, according to our poll.

“If you're 6 points away with 20% undecided, you've got a serious battle on your hands,” said Riley.

Gender Gap

Riley noted that Kulongoski does still enjoy strong support among women voters (44% to 30%). Mannix has a slight edge with male voters, 41% to 37%.

“Kulongoski has the clear edge among women voters and has greater support among women than Mannix has among men,” said Riley.

Kulongoski is also bolstered by his lead among independent voters (33% to 24%).

“(The numbers) show a race that's starting to gel, closing down a little bit and that presents some key challenges for both campaigns,” said KGW political analyst Len Bergstein.

Economic Challenges

Most notably on the list of challenges faced by both men: convincing the electorate that they can address Oregon’s economic woes.

The 600 voters surveyed were asked, “Which of the gubernatorial candidates do you think is best equipped to address issues important to Oregon’s economy?”

“That was an interesting question,” explained Riley, ”because what we found was it’s pretty much nobody. The largest segment of voters (39%) aren't sure.”

Even among those who favored a particular candidate on the economy, it remained a close call. Kulongoski was judged to be the best equipped to deal with economic matters by 33%, while Mannix received 28%. Cox collected just one percent.

The analysts said the poll data suggests many Oregon voters are unsure about who to vote for in this gubernatorial race because of their uncertainty about the candidates' competency to address the state's economy.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Oregon
KEYWORDS: governor; kulongoski; mannix; oregon

1 posted on 10/02/2002 4:03:31 PM PDT by BlackRazor
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To: conservative_2001; Coop; rightwingbob; DeaconBenjamin; Congressman Billybob; Vis Numar; mwl1; ...
Poll Ping!

If you want on or off my poll ping list, let me know!

2 posted on 10/02/2002 4:05:06 PM PDT by BlackRazor
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To: BlackRazor
I can't believe the Suicide State would elect a Republican. But this seems to be one more indication that the tide is flowing toward Bush, and that his coattails are working.

Either that or the Dems have finally gone too far, and really are committing suicide.
3 posted on 10/02/2002 4:06:22 PM PDT by Cicero
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To: BlackRazor
So, I take it a Green candidate isn't running.

Very surprising in Oregon.

4 posted on 10/02/2002 4:17:37 PM PDT by comebacknewt
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To: comebacknewt
So, I take it a Green candidate isn't running.

Nope, there's no Green candidate. There is a Libertarian. There is also no Green candidate in the Oregon Senate race... but there are Libertarian and Constitution candidates. I wonder why the Greens took a pass on OR's biggest races?

5 posted on 10/02/2002 4:25:38 PM PDT by BlackRazor
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To: Torie; Free the USA; deport
@
6 posted on 10/02/2002 4:25:41 PM PDT by KQQL
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7 posted on 10/02/2002 4:26:49 PM PDT by Mo1
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To: BlackRazor
Beacuse RATS told the Greenies to take a pass.
8 posted on 10/02/2002 4:34:12 PM PDT by KQQL
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To: BlackRazor
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9 posted on 10/02/2002 4:55:43 PM PDT by ffrancone
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To: BlackRazor
Also from KGW poll:
Smith maintains a powerful lead (now 23 points) over Democratic opponent Bill Bradbury. Smith drew the support of 53% of those voters surveyed, while challenger Bradbury
10 posted on 10/02/2002 8:34:37 PM PDT by KQQL
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