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Posted on 10/02/2002 4:03:31 PM PDT by BlackRazor
KGW poll: Oregon governor's race narrows
10/01/2002
By JIM PARKER and VINCE PATTON, KGW Staff
A new KGW poll shows Democrat Ted Kulongoski’s lead over Republican Kevin Mannix in the Oregon governor’s race has dwindled to single digits – setting the stage for what analysts predict will be a fight to the finish in November.
At the same time, voters also expressed reservations about whether either candidate has what it takes to get Oregon’s slumping economy moving again.
The poll conducted for Northwest NewsChannel 8 by Riley Research Associates surveyed 600 likely Oregon voters. It was conducted from Sept. 23 to Sept. 28 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.
The poll results show the race has narrowed -- with Kulongoski’s once double-digit lead reduced to only 6 percentage points.
“The headline is that Mannix is closing the gap,” said pollster Mike Riley.
“Kulongoski apeared to be coasting on his lead,” Riley added. “Well, it looks like that lead has now diminished to where I expect a fight from now until the end.”
Kulongoski drew the support of 42% of those voters surveyed, while Mannix garnered 36%. One percent of voters surveyed expressed support for Libertarian candidate Tom Cox.
20% of voters remain undecided, according to our poll.
“If you're 6 points away with 20% undecided, you've got a serious battle on your hands,” said Riley.
Gender Gap
Riley noted that Kulongoski does still enjoy strong support among women voters (44% to 30%). Mannix has a slight edge with male voters, 41% to 37%.
“Kulongoski has the clear edge among women voters and has greater support among women than Mannix has among men,” said Riley.
Kulongoski is also bolstered by his lead among independent voters (33% to 24%).
“(The numbers) show a race that's starting to gel, closing down a little bit and that presents some key challenges for both campaigns,” said KGW political analyst Len Bergstein.
Economic Challenges
Most notably on the list of challenges faced by both men: convincing the electorate that they can address Oregon’s economic woes.
The 600 voters surveyed were asked, “Which of the gubernatorial candidates do you think is best equipped to address issues important to Oregon’s economy?”
“That was an interesting question,” explained Riley, ”because what we found was it’s pretty much nobody. The largest segment of voters (39%) aren't sure.”
Even among those who favored a particular candidate on the economy, it remained a close call. Kulongoski was judged to be the best equipped to deal with economic matters by 33%, while Mannix received 28%. Cox collected just one percent.
The analysts said the poll data suggests many Oregon voters are unsure about who to vote for in this gubernatorial race because of their uncertainty about the candidates' competency to address the state's economy.
If you want on or off my poll ping list, let me know!
Very surprising in Oregon.
Nope, there's no Green candidate. There is a Libertarian. There is also no Green candidate in the Oregon Senate race... but there are Libertarian and Constitution candidates. I wonder why the Greens took a pass on OR's biggest races?
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