GO SIMON
Posted on 08/18/2002 9:37:21 AM PDT by NormsRevenge
Edited on 04/13/2004 3:29:42 AM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
DEFEATING an incumbent governor is akin to climbing Mt. Whitney, doable but difficult. Bill Simon isn't gaining altitude; he spent the past two weeks marching down into Death Valley.
Simon's route to the governor's office is longer and steeper than it was when he startled the political world in March by snatching the Republican nomination away from the consensus favorite, former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan.
(Excerpt) Read more at bayarea.com ...
Are there any debates scheduled? That could be critical.
Simon is a candidate like many other. He has a number of negatives. With negatives there is only one successful way to handle them. That is get the information out early and often before the press becomes interested. Otherwise your opponet will kill you with them. Simon has opted to be a target. It is a dumb way to handle your own negatives.
For example if income tax returns contain things that may cause problems if exposed, a candidate should expose them himself and send the exposure to every reporter in the state. He should do that before he officially announces his candidacy. If a reporter is burried in information about the taxes of a not certain candidate not likely to win, it does not register with the reporter as as a major story that needs to be covere. If the candidate then wins the nomination, reporters won't do much to expand on the the half paragraph story they wrote a month ago. When not likely candiates poor in tons of info reporters start a story with the line, "Long shot Candidate X Publishes full tax information in an effort to gain publicity and put pressure his opponent." Months later when the other side tries to point out the nasty things in the income tax returns, the media will not cover the facts. They will cover the motives of the attacker. They will speculate on Davis's motives in accusing Simon. To do otherwise the media would have to admit they had the evidence but never looked at it.
Only if Davis accuses and Simon refuses to provide fill disclosure does the media depart from the story being about the information providers motives. This situation just shows how amatuer the Simon canpaign is. It most likley shows how little the Candidate understands about what he is doing. No campaign manager with a modicum of experience would let Simon do the dumb things he has done. It seems certain that Simon's campaign manager tried to prevent Simon from doing what he did.
In summary, "Old news" worked for Clinton. It does not work as well for Repubicans, but it works a lot better than any alternative yet discovered.
Those running for office must settle suits before the campaign starts or stall them until after the election is over. Simon, should have noted the trial venue and the case against his firm, and not fight it when there was going to be a decision before the election. The only exuse is Simon's belief that he would win the suit. That is not very bright. He lost the suit. Unless he wins the appeal before the election, the "I will win on appeal" response has all the power of O.J. looking for the real killer. It is self destructive amatuer politics.
There is a high probability that Davis has not shot his best shots at Simon. Davis will save his best 3 shots for 6 weeks, 4 weeks, and 2 weeks before the election. The most powerful shot will be made 2 weeks before the election. Simon has no money to respond and the media will not help him.
Simon has from the beginning accused the DNC and Bush of not Raising money for him. That is typical of a poor little rich boy who is used to having Daddy fix everything. No one ever had to raise money for a Bush, Clinton, Reagan or Gore. It is the people who do not have leadership abilities that have trouble raising money.
It has been my experience that a candidate that can't raise enough money on his own, can't govern on his own either.
It was the plan, for Davis to assist the Republicans in getting Simon to be the candidate.
Little did the Republicans know just what a weak candidate Simon would be. I am not talking about Simon's issue positions, policies. I am talking about running a common sense, competent campaign.
So far, he and his team appear to be incompetent. They remind me of Palestinians "...never missing an opportunity to miss an opportunity..."
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No, it's too bad Simon won, and has proceeded to try and blur the differences between him and Riordan.
Thus far, the floundering campaign Simon has run is the same shakey-kneed, ashamed of Repubicanism, fret-fest that Riordan would have run, with less money.
That said, I'm not as down in the dumps as you are... comebacks do happen in California, as Pete Wilson showed in 1994. It's early August, and most voters aren't focusing on the campaign yet, and won't for another few weeks. Davis' negatives aren't going to change, there are 45% of the people here who will never vote for him. He needs 10 out 11 of the rest to win.
Was Simon the ideal candidate? No, but neither was Riordan. The RNC advisors need to do better than to keep foisting wimpy, cowardly campaigns on California, like those of Dan Lundgren, Matt Fong, and Tom Campbell.
It's the Republican leadership that needs to learn a lesson.
Bush could fire up Air Force 1 and hold a rally for Simon in Orange County this week if he wanted to do so. He doesn't. He believes Simon is toast. How anybody could lose to Gray out Davis baffles me, but Simon is getting ready to do so. Davis only has 2 positives. Incumbancy and money. With his negatives, he should have been easy pickings. This is so sad, that words don't do it any justice.
play the Condit card!
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