BULLETIN: TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL PARALLELS FLORIDA EAST COAST

National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center ^ | August 6, 2002 | National Hurricane Center

[varina davis]

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 715 PM EDT TUE AUG 06 2002

AT APPROXIMATELY 650 PM EDT...2250Z...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE HAD STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL.

THIS IS JUSTIFIED BY FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS RANGING FROM 48 TO 52 KNOTS BETWEEN 5000 AND 10000 FT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND A MEASURED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 999 MB...OR 29.50 INCHES. A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE WILL ISSUED BY 8 PM EDT...0000 UTC.

FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN

[varina davis]

Tropical Storm Cristobal is just off the east coast of Florida. Tornado warning and heavy rains are pelting the Miami area from its outer bands.

Path seems to be uncertain, but the surf is sure up on Florida's Atlantic coast tonight! All Floridians need to be alert.

[Recovering_Democrat]

THE TRACK IS RELATIVELY CERTAIN!
go to this URL:
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNationalWideNew.asp?loc=usa&seg=StormCenter&prodgrp=TrackingCharts&product=HurTrack2&prodnav=none&pid=none

[mhking]

Current radar image from WFOR/Miami:

[elfman2]

Looks like its more of a threat to Canadians than Floridians

[Don Munn]

SURF'S UP!!!

In Halifax?

[MonroeDNA]

Janet scares another one off.

[varina davis]

Looks like its more of a threat to Canadians than Floridians

You need to update your tracking map.

[bandlength]

the ONLY good thing about living in upstate NY is that we don't get many of these at all!!

p.s. do you think it will swing by maine, cuz that's where i'm headed on thursday?

[MonroeDNA]

Uhh....is that map wrong? Not to doubt you, but it looks like Nova Scotia is in the target zone to me.

Floridian Freeper

[varina davis]

Try this link. Tropical Storm Cristobal is ust off Florida's east coast and NOT headed for Nova Scotia. =

[Howlin]

Geez, I'm glad you said that; I was reading the map BACKWARDS. I thought it came from Halifax!

[varina davis]

=

Here's another perspective, with Tropical Storm Cristobal on the Fla. east coast and TD Bertha emerging back into the gulf off Lousiana.

[mc5cents]

Frog alert in So. Fla.!!! Ribbit!

[JBCiejka]

Love your map! Can I get a link?

[rwfromkansas]

Folks, this storm is essentially splitting......

The part near Florida won't be a big deal unless it can develop a new center.

[rwfromkansas]

OK......the reason why there is a discrepency here is that part of the storm....the part they are using on the tracking map, is going to head off to the northeast. This is the part that actually has a good tropical center for the storm. However, teh part with the bundle of clouds is actually moving southwest toward Florida. It has a weaker center and unless it can form a new one, it won't be a big deal for Florida. If it can develop a new center that is fairly strong, it could strengthen into a decent tropical storm and perhaps minor hurricane, but that is questionable.

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[deport]

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL
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---

819 
WTNT73 KNHC 062325
SPFAT3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER  6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
730 PM EDT TUE AUG 06 2002
 
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
 
AT 730 PM EDT...2330Z...THE CENTER OF THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  76.1 WEST
 
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM EDT FRI AUG  9 2002
 
LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E
 
31.0N  73.0W      34  5  X  X 39   YARMOUTH NS        X  X  X  7  7
33.0N  69.0W       X 24  7  X 31   HALIFAX NS         X  X  X 11 11
38.5N  63.0W       X  X 15  6 21   SABLE ISLAND NS    X  X  1 16 17
BERMUDA            X  1  4  X  5   SYDNEY NS          X  X  X 13 13
NANTUCKET MA       X  X  X  2  2   EDDY POINT NS      X  X  X 13 13
HYANNIS MA         X  X  X  2  2   PTX BASQUES NFLD   X  X  X 12 12
BAR HARBOR ME      X  X  X  3  3   BURGEO NFLD        X  X  X 13 13
EASTPORT ME        X  X  X  4  4   ILE ST PIERRE      X  X  X 14 14
ST JOHN NB         X  X  X  5  5   CAPE RACE NFLD     X  X  X 12 12
MONCTON NB         X  X  X  6  6   HIBERNIA OILFLD    X  X  X  5  5
 
COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM WED TO  2AM THU
C FROM  2AM THU TO  2PM THU
D FROM  2PM THU TO  2PM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
 
FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN
 

[deport]

How about a 7 P.M. EST updated chart...... from the NWS

[varina davis]

How about a 7 P.M. EST updated chart...... from the NWS

Nope. The LLC is now south of 30 N and will escape the trof. It will continue to drift S or SW or SE. Nice try.